Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 301731
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY...RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH ALL OF THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH OVER COLORADO...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COUNTIES APPEARS QUITE MEAGER.
WARMER TODAY AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED AND WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EAST
WINDS...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE PINE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...PATTERN STAYS THE SAME WITH
SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON PROGGED OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT...THUS ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS OVER
OUR NORTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM BASED
ON PROGGED THICKNESSES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING IN THE LONG TERM AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS EARLY
AS MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS HAPPENING...SO CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
INDEED TAKE PLACE.

PRETTY HOT DAY SUNDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +18C OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

LOOKS LIKE A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY THAT LAYS UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON A DAILY BASIS FROM
TUESDAY ON INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KSNY AND
POSSIBLY KAIA THIS AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...THOUGH FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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