Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291200
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Sfc low pressure center situated over the Bayfield Peninsula and
western Lake Superior at 0830z this morning will continue to slowly
translate to the east-northeast today. The associated mid-level
shortwave trough still has a decent amount of lift associated with
it, as evidenced by a positive vorticity maxima and isentropic
upglide, so chances of showers will continue this morning,
especially over the Minnesota Arrowhead where this lift will be
maximized. Instability looks very minimal over this area, so not
expecting any thunderstorms through much of the day. The rest of the
Northland should see drier conditions as a very subtle low-amplitude
mid-level ridge builds into the region. Some areas over our western
counties may see peeks of sunshine for a time later this morning and
into the afternoon.

A secondary system will then quickly move into the region from the
Dakotas into the region this evening and overnight, which will bring
another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. The
convective-allowing models show quite a bit of disagreement for the
areal coverage of these showers, so the POPs were a bit difficult to
synthesize. In general, the chances of showers will increase from
west to east tonight/early Friday morning, with chances nearly
everywhere Friday morning and afternoon. The Thaler QG progs
indicate a very broad area of 850-300 mb layer omega, so the more
widespread chances of POPs seem reasonable. Chances of thunderstorms
will increase in the late morning Friday and into the afternoon as
sfc temperatures warm and low-level lapse rates steepen. The
magnitude of instability differs somewhat over the models, but
values of MLCAPE appear to be between 500 to 1500 J/kg, so decent
magnitudes. Deep layer shear appears to be meager though, with
values on the order of 20 kts. So, some of the storms could be on
the strong side, given the magnitude of the instability, but not
expecting any severe.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

There will be rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms from Friday
night through Sunday morning as a series of shortwaves move through
the region.  With some moisture in the area, showers with a few
thunderstorms will develop, but they will be scattered in nature.
It will be mostly cloudy Friday night through Sunday morning so
temps will be below normal. By Sunday afternoon, high pressure
will build into the forecast area and will finally allow the
region to dry out. The dry conditions will continue through
Wednesday afternoon with warmer temperatures at or a little above
normal with highs in the 70s and 80s. July 4th looks to be rain
free across the Northland. The next possibility of precipitation
will be Wednesday night into Thursday when a weak shortwave
affects the region causing some showers to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

LIFR-IFR conditons at HIB/HYR/DLH airport through mid-morning with
improvement to IFR-MVFR by 18z and to MVFR-VFR conditions by late
afternoon as the low pressure pulls off to the northeast. At
INL/BRD, conditions will be MVFR-VFR today. Overnight, conditions
will be MVFR-IFR due to low ceilings out ahead of the next low
pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  53  68  52 /  10  40  50  40
INL  72  54  70  52 /  20  50  60  40
BRD  77  57  72  54 /  20  50  60  40
HYR  71  54  71  53 /  10  50  50  30
ASX  69  52  69  52 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart


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