Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 232104
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE/CLOSED H50 LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO WESTERN MN
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CARRYING BROADBRUSH 20/30 POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING AS
THE WAVE BRINGS PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND SUFFICIENT FORCING
TO PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE BORDERLAND WED AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLD QUARTER INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN EXITING MID LVL TROF WILL KEEP LINGERING LOW POPS OVER MN
ARROWHEAD AND NWRN WISC WED NIGHT BEFORE A DRY SPELL DEVELOPS. AN
ANOMALOUS MID LVL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SHIFT
EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SFC.  THE SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE ERN
GT LAKES BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A BDRY LYR WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO
OCCUR. ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW LVL FLOW THAT DONT
EXPECT ANY SERIOUS LOW LEVEL MSTR TRANSPORT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED MID LVL LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA MAINTAINS INTEGRITY AND ANOMALOUS NATURE OF MID LVL RIDGE
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. MDLS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
THAT MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS CTRL/ERN CANADA BY LATE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW A SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NRN PART OF THE CWA SUNDAY. WILL CARRY A SLGT CHC OF RAIN LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NRN MN ZONES...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MED
RANGE MDL SUITE AS THE ECM/GEM SUPPORT THEE BDRY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SLIDES THE BDRY SOUTH INTO THE SRN CWA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LVL TROF ADVECTS EAST NEXT 24
HRS. A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS IS FCST FROM SW TO NE OVER THE
REGION. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 06Z NEAR
KBRD...THEN SPREADING NORTH/EAST TOWARDS KINL/KHIB/KDLH BY 12Z.
ELONGATING NATURE OF UPPER TROF TOMORROW MAY SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP AT KHYR UNTIL 15Z...IF IT ARRIVES AT ALL. WILL LOWER
CEILINGS TO LOW MVFR BUT MAY GET INTO IFR AT KBRD WHERE LONGER
PERIOD OF TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  68  54  69 /  10  20  10   0
INL  51  66  54  74 /  20  30  10   0
BRD  55  68  55  74 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  51  69  53  73 /  10  30  20  10
ASX  50  69  54  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






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