Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 211056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NW CAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG WILL REGENERATE EACH NIGHT AND FOR THE MOST
PART MIX OUT EACH AFTERNOON. PESKY LITTLE VORTICES TRAPPED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE COASTLINE MAY MAKE COMPLETE CLEARING
MORE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW ON THU AND THEN DIG
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHT
COOLING TO THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRI. THE COOLING AND INCREASE IN WINDS
SHOULD LIFT UP THE MARINE LAYER AND PERHAPS WIPE OUT THE SMALL
SCALE EDDIES TRAPPED NEAR THE COASTLINE.

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC TO
BUILD CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARMING ALOFT
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW NEAR MEAN SEA
LEVEL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE WARMING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY EXTREME OR OUT OF THE ORDINARY.


&&

.AVIATION...WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS
HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS THIS MORNING. EXPECT ANY CLOUDS
THAT MAKE IT INTO ACV AND CEC WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS IN MENDOCINO COUNT AND ALONG THE
COAST SO THESE WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR THIS MORNING. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO UKIAH THIS
MORNING. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IT WILL
BE LATE AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. MKK


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
DISRUPTS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
MONDAY. TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE FLOW AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN. MAINLY
WENT THE NAM AND DGEX WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WINDS.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. CUT THE WAVES  FROM DOWN
A BIT AS IT SEEMED TO BE OVERDOING THE WIND WAVES IN A FEW PERIODS.

CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE BUOYS IS A LONG PERIOD WAVE AROUND 1 FOOT AT
14 SECONDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS PEAKING AROUND 4 FT AT 12 SECONDS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
SHOW THIS WAVE PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS FAIRLY UNUSUAL TO GET A
SOUTHERLY WAVE THIS LARGE. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

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