Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 022244
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
344 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE COAST
WHILE A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS FOR ALL THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE SOUTH FORK
RIDGE AS WELL AS WESTERN SISIKOU COUNTY AND MAY FLOAT OVER CENTRAL
AND DEL NORTE COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN INTENSITY AND DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF RAINFALL. ALL
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE OTHER CHANGE TODAY IS
THE NORTHERLY DRIFT OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THAT HAS ENVELOPED
MUCH OF THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF CA. LOCALLY THERE STILL EXISTS A
HOLE OVER HUMBOLDT BAY BAY BUT IT IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND BY
LATE TONIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON
MOST OF THE LITTORAL ZONE OF THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THUS
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME BRIEF AFTERNOON CLEARING WHICH IS POSSIBLE. STILL
ANTICIPATING SOME INTERIOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS
MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE PINCHING OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL CUT OFF AND MOVE INTO THE BAY AREA. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA WHICH IS ALWAYS A GOOD
INGREDIENT FOR SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL
OFF TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING A MORE DRIER STABLE REGIME TO
THE REGION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE AREA OF MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE...COMBINED
WITH A SOUTHERLY SURGE SOUTH OF MENDOCINO...STARTED IMPACTING THE
NORTH COAST BY MID MORNING...AND FINALLY SURGED ONSHORE BY 12 NOON.
CIGS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS THEN DROPPED INTO IFR BUT HAVE BASICALLY
HOVERED AROUND 1000 FEET (LOW MVFR)THROUGH AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVEN
MORE VARIABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE MOST CIGS MVFR-
VFR WITH POSSIBLE LATE MORNING (INTERMITTENT)DRIZZLE...BUT ANY RAIN
OR RAINSHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AFTER MIDDAY. INTERIOR AREAS:
ANY AVIATION THREAT WAS MOSTLY CONVECTIVE AS MODERATE CUMULUS
BUILDUPS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHFORK MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY
LINE. 2 PM SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES SHOWED SOME WEAK SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-SOUTH FROM WEITCHPEC TO DINSMORE AND
FOREST GLEN.


&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE CAPE WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS A STRATUS SURGE ABATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWITCH TO N-NW
BY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF ROBUST NORTHERLY WINDS AND
LARGE STEEP WAVES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THU THRU
FRI AND PERHAPS INTO SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY 10-60NM FROM
SHORE AND LOCALLY AROUND PT ST GEORGE AND CAPE MENDO MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY STEEP LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHERLY
SEAS WHICH SHOULD HIT 13 TO 16 FT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. A COUPLE
OF SMALL LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUPS WILL ALSO BE IN THE MIX.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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