Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 042345 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 COULD GET A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
COMPONENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A CONTINUED NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS IS MAINTAINING WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
80S IN THE SOUTH.

THE ONLY CHANGE WITH TOMORROW SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES RISING 3 OR 4
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS LOSE THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND
SHIFT TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AND RETURN THE STATE INTO ITS TYPICAL SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
REGIME AS WELL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
STATE...IT WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS PROGGED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
IN WEST TEXAS AND SATURDAY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY LINE SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS AN H5 JET STREAK BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE BIG BEND TO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING AN 850 MB LLJ OF AROUND
40 KTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT.
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EFFECT THE I35
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AS THE DRY LINE PUSHES FARTHER
EAST...POTENTIALLY REACHING THE I35 CORRIDOR ITSELF MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM CHANCES FAVOR THE EAST MONDAY AND AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO
A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE EAST AND SOUTH ZONES.

RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  85  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  84  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     55  86  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  83  58  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           58  89  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  83  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  87  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  84  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  86  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  87  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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