Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 030756
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TO OUR SOUTHEAST
IS A COASTAL TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND
2.5 INCHES JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND PW VALUES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUR A
STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL CARRY A 10 POP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
WILL NOT MENTION AND SHOWERS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LOW-LEVEL LIFT IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL ALSO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND NOT WELL-DEFINED AS A TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CALIFORNIA. HIGH-TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...SLIGHTLY INCREASING DEW
POINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW 104 DEGREES AREA WIDE.

FOR TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST...AND WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS HIGHS COULD
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR EAST AND WILL NOT MENTION
ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT EAST AND WILL HAVE MORE OF
A HOLD OVER TEXAS. 850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INCREASES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY-SUNDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SURFACE MOISTURE CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD AND BEGIN TO MENTION THE ELEVATED
HEAT ONCE AGAIN IN THE HWO. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR ZERO DURING THE LONG- TERM FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  74  98  75 100 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  76  98  76  99 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  76  98  77  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE



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