Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 280246
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
846 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...
Latest Update...

As showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the area,
mention of small hail and gusty winds was removed from the weather
grids this evening. Winds are just beginning to diminish across
the area, and while are still hovering around the Lake Wind
Advisory criteria, conditions are still expected to improve
gradually this evening. Thus, the advisory is no longer in effect
for the area. Maliawco

6PM UPDATE:

An area of thunderstorms will continue over the southeastern CWA
through this evening. Some gusty wind, very small hail and brief
heavy downpours of rain are possible with any storm. Updated to
include the impact wording into the forecast.   Proton

Previous Discussion:

Upper low drifting east into Alberta this afternoon will be the
main driver of our weather this period. It has helped to bring in
some moisture that brought scattered shower activity to mainly
Phillips and northern Valley counties this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms were also skirting the southwest zones.

A cold front that has pushed into wester North Dakota has allowed
for a NW breeze across the CWA. These winds are expected to become
light and variable this evening.

Some return flow is expected Wednesday with another cold front to
push across the area Wednesday Night. This may again help to
generate a few showers, but nothing more. Temps will be a bit
cooler with low 80s. TFJ


.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

For the extended forecast period, made some adjustments out
through this Saturday afternoon, following the best model
consensus I could find. All sensible weather during this period
will be driven by the slow-sweeping low pressure system from the
Canadian southern high plains through the US northern high plains.
Subtle embedded short-wave disturbances pinwheeling around this
low will bring multiple periods of scattered rain showers to
northeast Montana, but amounts are expected to remain light.
Unfortunately, accumulations seem more likely around the edges of
our CWA.

BMickelson

The extended forecast period beginning Thursday evening will see
Northeast Montana with a northwest flow pattern aloft based on an
upper trough swinging southeast through the local region. By
Friday afternoon this trough will have moved east enough to allow
cooler than normal temperatures to rebound to normal. This trough
may bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area but
wetting rains are not likely.

A narrow ridge will continue the warming for Saturday, but an
short-wave disturbance will knock it down for Saturday evening.
Models are unclear but showers may be initiated Saturday night and
Sunday as the disturbance moves through the region.

Another ridge follows to begin next week for more dry and warm
conditions. Although it`s difficult to say this far out, the
models suggest another trough running through southern Canada
which may place a frontal boundary over the local area for the
possibility of showers beyond Monday.

Templer


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected tonight across area terminals as
showers continue to diminish near KGDV. Maliawco



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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