Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 061624 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TODAY TO ADD FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING
AND SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY WHERE CURRENT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS BRING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SHOULD BE OF VERY
LITTLE IMPACT. A PARTLY CLOUDY...NICE...WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED
WITH A BIT MORE OF A BREEZE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COLD AIR RETREATING TOWARD
GREENLAND WITH EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST.
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT. JET DYNAMICS AND A LITTLE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUMP THE WINDS UP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GET SOME GUST TO 30 OR
40 MPH NEAR THE LITTLE ROCKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN
CANADA AND ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND UPPER
LEVELING RIDGING IN THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DRY PATTERN. THEN MONDAY NIGHT A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO NEMONT...WITH LITTLE AFFECT OTHER THAN TRIMMING A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN BY TUESDAY THE COLD
QUICKLY RETREATS EAST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN TO BRING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST. SO THE FLUCTUATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY ALREADY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND THE EC AND GFS BOTH SEE A TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST. BOTH 12Z MODELS HAD COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO WHAT
THE TROUGH WILL DO. THE 00Z GFS DRAGS A WEAKENED TROUGH ACROSS THE
DIVIDE ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z EC SENT THE TROUGH AS A CUTOFF LOW
DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER THE 00Z EC CAME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...RAISING CONFIDENCE A BIT. CONSISTENCY NEEDS TO CONTINUE
BEFORE CONFIDENCE RISES MUCH MORE. HOWEVER DID RAISE TEMPERATURES
QUITE A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY ON...SINCE IN BOTH SCENARIOS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL SUPPRESS ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SPRINKLE NEAR THE BORDERS WITH
CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING OVERALL MILD WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN DROP BACK DOWN BELOW 10 KTS LATER TONIGHT FROM
THE WEST.

EXPECT SCT TO BKN MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS.

SCT/BLM

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.