Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 190017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
617 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...

6PM Update: Made very few changes to the forecast. Mainly adjusted
temperatures and winds to reflect current conditions. 850 mb
winds will still be fairly gusty overnight, and while not much of
this is expected to mix down to the surface across most of
northeast Montana overnight, higher elevations may see some
impact from this. Overnight winds will be relatively light,
generally from the south to southwest. Some gusty winds are
possible over the higher terrain of Phillips County, where gusts
could be 20 to 30 mph.  AEH

Previous Discussion...
Flat zonal ridge will move across the area
tonight and exit into the Dakotas Thursday morning. A weak
shortwave trough will move across southern Saskatchewan late
tonight. Mid and high level moisture within the flow aloft will
allow for sct- bkn mid and high clouds tonight which will keep
tonights low temperatures on the mild side.

Flow aloft will swing from a westerly direction into a more
southerly direction as a high pressure ridge moves to the east
and an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific NW. A thermal
ridge is forecast to build back over Montana allowing for a rapid
rebound in high temperatures mainly in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Wed...

Thursday Night:
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain mild. A surface
low is forecast to develop over SE Alberta Thursday Night as an
upper low pressure trough move in from the west.

A low pressure trough and surface cold front is forecast to move
across the area during the afternoon into the early evening. An
upper level trough move through Friday Night into early Saturday
morning with strong WNW winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts from 40 to 50
mph. There will be enough moisture behind the front Friday Night
for a chance of showers.

Windy WNW winds and cooler conditions can be expected on Saturday
with high temperatures dropping back near normal.

A shortwave trough and cold front will continue the strong WNW
winds across the forecast area. This system will bring with it
isolated to scattered light showers.

Monday into Tuesday:
Monday NE MT is forecast to remain on the back side of a strong
and cold low pressure system centered over Hudson Bay with cool
and breezy NW winds and some widely scattered light rain showers.
Tuesday - A high pressure is forecast to begin building in from
the west with warming daytime high temperatures and decreasing NW
winds at this point.

Wednesday: A High pressure ridge is forecast to build over the
region with dry and warmer daytime temperatures along with lighter
winds. TEC



SYNOPSIS: High pressure over the region through Friday morning,
then exiting towards the Dakotas/Minnesota on Friday, with the
next weather system moving into the Pacific NW. There will SCT-
BKN layers of mid and high clouds expected tonight as moisture
moves through the area with an weak upper level disturbance.

WIND: Winds will turn to a more southerly direction this evening
at 5 to 10 knots, and increase late Thursday morning into the
afternoon 10 to 20 knots.




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