Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 240951
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
351 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Thu...

Upper low beginning to move from British Columbia into southern
Alberta early this morning. As the low pushes toward Saskatchewan
today, a cold front will march across the state. Low level
southeasterly flow ahead of the front not particularly strong but
could pull enough moisture northward for a few thunderstorms to
develop, mainly in the Yellowstone Valley this afternoon and
evening with the frontal passage.

Behind the front, deep westerly flow with tight gradient and cold
air advection, coupled with jet streak, will bring very strong
winds across northern Montana. Timing of front keeps the strongest
winds over the northwest zones so area of the High Wind Warning
still on track. Downslope flow will contribute to the drying of
the airmass behind the front, and with recent dry conditions, fire
weather concerns remain elevated.

Winds decouple some tonight but expected to increase again on
Thursday as the low moves toward Manitoba. Moisture wrapping
around the system, and instability with cold air advection should
bring some showers to mainly the northern zones. Ebert


.LONG TERM...Thu night through Wed... An upper low situated over
southern Saskatchewan Thursday night will shift southeast toward
the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Northeast Montana will be
under the influence of this weather feature through at least this
time with cool weather conditions with the associated lower 500mb
heights. As the closed low tracks by the area expect isolated to
widely scattered chances for showers for portions of the CWA over
the weekend.

Low pressure will push further downstream of the region in the
upcoming week as an upper ridge becomes established over Montana.
The ridge axis will likely reach eastern Montana around Thursday
or Friday per 00z model guidance. This pattern will lead to
largely dry weather conditions and warmer temperatures. In fact,
current indications suggest that highs will return to the 70s by
the midweek. Maliawco


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through most of the period. A cold front
will march across the state today with wind shifting to the west
and increasing significantly for KGGW this afternoon, and KOLF by
evening. For KSDY and KGDV, isolated thunderstorms are possible in
the afternoon and evening.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and
Southern Valley...Garfield...Northern Phillips...Northern
Valley...Petroleum...Southwest Phillips.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
MTZ120-134>137.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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