Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 180900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. GOOD MIXING AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AS WARM AS THEY WILL BE TODAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TWO MAIN FEATURES DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

FIRST...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING ANY AND ALL PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
NORTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT HIGH GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

NEXT...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL SPILL OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE OBVIOUSLY
STILL EXIST SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING TIMING
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...A GENERAL PICTURE IS
BEGINNING TO FORM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DELIVER THE INITIAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
LIKELY BE SCATTERED AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE TO START WITH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...A MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
BEGIN...ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
WILL FAVOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. INCLUDED SOME
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE THE END OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS
THE BACKSIDE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BY THIS TIME...THE BIGGEST
MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENCED BY THE EC HOLDING ON TO THE DRY
SLOT AND NOT ALLOWING ANY BACKSIDE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS BLANKETS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN AS THE SYSTEM FINISHED WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY SNEAK OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ALLOW MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR EVEN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ZONES.

BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE THE EARLIER SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN THE MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AFTER SKIES PARTIALLY LIFR THIS MORNING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KGDV WHERE
MORE VICINITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
BY TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY  OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL VEER
AROUND TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT TONIGHT.. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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