Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 160251 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AS CLOUDS HAVE STAYED FAR AWAY FROM THE CWA TODAY AND MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM MOST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...I FELT IT COULD NOT HURT TO DROP SKY COVER GRID
COMPLETELY TO ZERO WHERE THIS MODEL CONSENSUS WAS BEST. ENDED UP
CHANGING THE FORECAST WORDING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SEEMS
REASONABLE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL DOMINATE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LEAD TO
CALM AND UN-SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS. RIDGE MAKES GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE CENTRAL AXIS LINED-UP JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING
THROUGH THIS PATTERN...FEW CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
GENERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO MAKE FOR COOL LOWS AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
BE DOWN TO THE LOW 40S TO MID 30S AROUND THE CWA...THOUGH FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE. WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WILL KICK-IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEARING 80 AND INTO THE MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARTIN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW MOSTLY STANDS. ONLY TWEAKS
WERE TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
FOR THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MIDWEEK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FLATTEN AS TROF OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. AFTER WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE. WESTERN TROF SPLITS
ITS ENERGY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE.
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MUCH FLATTER AND WEAKER AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRIDAY. MODELS DRYING OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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