Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Main concern will be potential for fog in our far northeast/east

As we see a surface ridge pass across the CWA tonight, expect north
wind become south by late evening. This ridge should make its way
far enough east to preclude us from much fog, but I am the most
concerned with our northeast corner that held on to stratus a bit
longer than the rest until about noon to 1 pm, so this could be a
factor. If they do get fog toward Polk County, it should not be
super low visibility and should not last very long.

Heading into Thursday, upper level ridging will ensure warmer
than normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

For Friday, upper level ridging will ensure warmer than normal
temperatures, but highs in the lower 80s expected for much of the
CWA Friday, which should wind up being our warmest day of the
forecast. I also increased wind speed a few knots compared to the
initialized forecast.

A quick-hitting shortwave trough will cool us off a bit for the
weekend with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, but still above
normal. Monday will warm back up into the mid 70s to around 80
Monday as upper level flow becomes more southwest as another
shortwave trough approaches. This trough will have a bit more of a
punch to it with highs remaining in the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday
behind the trough. Up to this point, conditions will be so dry that
there is no rain in the forecast, but by Tuesday night, there will
be enough of a low-level jet and increased moisture to give us a
shot at some thunderstorms as we should be in the right rear
quadrant of an upper level jet. MUCAPE will probably top out in the
500-1000 J/kg range, which would be enough for some thunder. It
appears that along and east of Highway 281 would be the more likely
area to have thunder if it occurs as this will be where moisture
transport will be more likely focused.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Some high cirrus is
possible through the evening and overnight hours. Wind will be
light and variable overnight as surface high pressure moves
overhead. Winds will increase from the south tomorrow.




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Billings Wright is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.