Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281701
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Another upper level trough will drop down from the northwest today
with the support of a 90kt jet streak. Like yesterday, deep mixing
will occur and reach over 500mb allowing gusty surface winds to
materialize. As the trough moves through, enough instability and
daytime heating will allow a few showers and storms to form
favoring our northern areas. The biggest concern from any
convection that forms will be some brief and gusty winds under and
near any showers or storms. The rest of the CWA will see partly
cloudy skies and warm temperatures continuing along with some
gusty afternoon winds, maybe a little bit stronger than seen on
Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect as described in the
fire weather section below.

One good thing to come out of this trough is that models indicate
upper level winds becoming more northerly. This turn in the winds
should allow some cooler air to move into the region. Highs on
Thursday should be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than what we`ve
seen recently and put us right around where we should be for this
time of year.

As far as the weather is concerned, another trough will be just
on our doorstep by Thursday evening. Ahead of the trough, another
round of convection looks possible over the Book Cliffs and also
the Colorado and Wyoming border. As has been the case for the past
week, coverage looks minimal with qpf amounts on the low side.
However, a little respite from the heat will be a welcome relief.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The prospect for significant rainfall in the long term is not
looking very good at all. The somewhat cooler or more normal
temperatures stick around for Friday on the backside of the trough
moving into the Great Lakes region. The northwest flow in place
should keep skies mainly clear from smoke of the fires to our West
and assuming no large fires start back over the Northern Rockies.
There is still a hint of a trough phasing with a southern
moisture tap for late in the weekend over the Rockies. The rain
chances will be quite small as this trough passes and mainly
limited to our eastern mountains. Temperatures will be climbing
through the weekend but really take off by early next week as the
subtropical high looks to settle over the southern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

VFR conditions at all terminal sites through the period. Winds
will gust out of the west at all terminal locations this
afternoon, and winds will decrease in speed after sunset. Some
smoke from the Brian Head fire in Utah will drift over areas along
and south of I-70 this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Another stronger jet streak will move overhead while deep mixing
is expected to occur again today. Minimal changes are expected in
atmospheric moisture levels or fuels so critical fire weather
conditions will be met again this afternoon and evening. Therefore,
a Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon to 8 PM today for
all fire weather zones with the exception of UTZ485.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200>203-205-
     207-290>295.

UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-
     491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MAC
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT



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