Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AT MOST.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE NAM MODEL WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WITH THE LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE GFS WAS...BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS WHICH HAD THE 500MB JET STREAK POSITIONED
SIMILAR TO THE SREF AND ECMWF MODELS.  WITH A SATURERATED
ENVIRONMENT AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...RAINFALL SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  AS THE LIFT DECLINES WITH THE RIGHT EXIT MOVING SOUTHWARD THE
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL.  HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE RAIN WOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW THE LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET STREAK AND POSSIBLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE NEXT DOWN STREAM JET STREAK DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACING PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...JUST A MATTER OF HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DO THE CHANCES EXTEND.
KEPT THE PRECIP. CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WAS STRONGEST AND WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS BEST.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  AM
EXPECTING RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO LEVELS INDICATING SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.  HOWEVER BY
THE TIME THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH FOLLOWING THE 500MB JET SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT MOST.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES THE WEAK INVERSION TO
DISAPPEAR AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.  THE WINDS WILL
PEAK OVERNIGHT.



TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY ALMOST
12 HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT DURING
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE THROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS DESCENT.  MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH OF THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH.  MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR.

BEHIND THE TROUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS



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