Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 050500
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Currently across the Tri-State region there is a surface ridge. This
is allowing temperatures to reach the upper 40s to low 50s. The main
portion of surface ridge is in the eastern portion of the area,
therefore this is bringing southwest flow across the CWA. Winds are
primarily light at 5 to 10 mph but some gusty winds have developed
over the eastern Colorado counties and Nebraska counties early this
afternoon.

The remainder of the day into the evening are expected to be dry
with winds from the west, southwest at 5 to 15 mph. There will be
some high clouds that move into the northwest half of the region
this evening as a surface trough begins to push east into the
region. Temperatures will drop into the 20s tonight.

As for Monday, temperatures will be in the 50s due to warm air
moving across the region before a cold frontal passage. Current
guidance has this cold front moving over the region during the mid
to late afternoon hours. This will cause the winds to shift to the
northwest and increase to around 10 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

The forecast concerns in the long term are the cold air moving
into the region mid-week following the possibility of accumulating
snow from Tuesday night night through Wednesday.

The closed upper low that has been tracking slowly across
northern Mexico and is expected to move across Texas on Monday
and Monday night will lift quickly into the Mississippi Valley
region as an open trough by Tuesday morning ahead of a kicker that
moves east of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains by Monday
evening.

In the wake of this system, very cold air dives south along the
high plains on Tuesday. As a result, high temperatures will drop
from the 50s on Monday into the 30s on Tuesday. Return surface
flow around the high pressure area as it moves east along with an
inverted surface trough moving into the Southern High Plains will
focus moisture, mainly at and below 700MB, on the region. As this
moisture moves over and into the colder air, expect light snow to
develop across the region with a possible band of snow near an
area of frontogenesis stretched across the forecast area in the
vicinity of Interstate 70. Current thinking is a fairly widespread
area of 2-4" of snow is expected with localized higher and lower
amounts. Some areas of blowing snow may be observed as the
stronger pressure gradient transitions across mainly the southern
portion of the forecast area along with the peak snowfall between
06Z Tuesday night and 18Z Wednesday mid day.

As the inverted surface trough continues to move across the
southern plains, another surge of colder high pressure moves in
across the Central High Plains region on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Snow is expected to come to an end by Wednesday afternoon.
High temperatures on Wednesday are only expected to be in the
teens to lower 20s. With high pressure moving in Wednesday night
and skies beginning to clear out, especially in the west, expect
temperatures to drop to around zero with wind chills in the teens
below zero possible. Wednesday and Wednesday night will have the
coldest temperatures of the period. Thursday and Thursday night
will remain cold, but not as cold as Wednesday. As the cold area
of high pressure moves out of the region by the end of the week,
expect to see high temperatures back up into the 30s and lower 40s
by Saturday. Models hint at a little spotty mixed precipitation in
the forecast border regions through the weekend as weak waves
transition the region in the westerly flow alfot, but with a lack
of a stronger system and better consensus between model
solutions, not expecting much if anything in the way of
accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.

Southwest winds around 15kts with higher gusts at KGLD for
initial conditions will continue through 10z before falling below
12kts. Winds veer to the west under 10kts by 14z then northwest at
similar speeds around 17z. Winds start to increase by 19z with
peak winds from the north gusting 25 to 30kts in the 21z-01z
timeframe as a cold front moves through. Toward the end of the
period sustained north winds around 12kts expected. No
precipitation expected for this taf cycle.

For KMCK southwest winds 10kts or less expected through 16z before
shifting to the northwest around 17z. Winds start to increase in
the 20z-04z timeframe with gusts in the 25 to 30kt range possible
as a cold front moves through. At the tail end of the taf period
sustained north winds around 12kts expected. No precipitation
expected for this taf cycle.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99


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