Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
119 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

As of 2 pm CDT, 1 pm MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
quite blue, devoid of any cloud cover to speak of. Temperatures are
in the mid 70s to low 80s with warmest temperatures observed along
the Colorado border. Winds are light and variable across the region.
As the surface, high pressure extended from southern Canada south
across the Great Plains. The leading edge of the surface high, in
the form of a backdoor cold front, is moving through the High Plains
as we speak. Aloft, a large upper level low is diving south from the
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley. Another area of low pressure
was located over southern California. Sandwiched in-between is a
ridge of high pressure over the High Plains. This ridge, in addition
to the surface high and abundant dry air, have led to precipitation-
free (and cloud-free) weather today.

Clear and dry weather conditions are forecast to persist through
tomorrow and beyond. The surface high begins to retreat east
tomorrow and a lee trough should form along the Rockies. This will
lead to south winds becoming dominant and becoming gusty by late
tomorrow morning. Temperatures should be cooler, yet still
seasonable, tomorrow as a result of the weak frontal passage and
gusty winds.

Fog development is possible over south central Nebraska tonight
according to some high-res guidance members. Currently do not have
enough confidence to place a mention of this in the forecast as the
majority of guidance members do not indicate fog in southwest
Nebraska. That is about the only thing to watch.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

High pressure ridge will be centered over the CWA on Saturday with
low pressure both over the Ohio River valley to the east and off the
California coast to the west. The pattern will progress eastward
over the course of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
The Low will move onshore sometime late Sunday afternoon and begin a
trek eastward through the day on Monday, approaching the CWA as
we head into Tuesday. PoPs remain low through the period as
relatively dry air will be in place as the low approaches. Went
with slgt chc in the northern most portions of the CWA late
Tuesday as the low moves just to the north at this time. There is
a bit of disagreement in the global guidance with regards to
timing but the overall pattern is in acceptable agreement.

High temperatures will be above normal in the upper 70s and lower
80s with the ridge in place Sunday and Monday before cooler air
moves into the central Plains on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be closer to the lower to middle 70s. Low
temperatures will be mainly in the 40s with a few readings closer
to 50 degrees in the eastern most counties.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the Great Plains is moving southwest into the area
in the form of a weak backdoor cold front. In addition, a ridge
of high pressure extends across the High Plains. These two highs
will result in clear skies throughout the next 24 hours and
beyond. Some high-resolution guidance indicates fog development
over south central Nebraska. It is possible fog approaches KMCK
but currently don`t see it reaching TAF site. No precipitation
should be anticipated. Light and variable winds likely until south
winds become dominant tomorrow morning as a lee trough develops
along the Rockies.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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