Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
929 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Issued at 841 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Just completed to make some adjustments to the low temperatures.
Looks like temperatures will be a little warmer than expected in
the eastern portion of the area. Day shift was a little worried
about fog developing. Most guidance continues to not have it and
the few pieces that do have cut back on it. So will leave it out
for now.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Upper ridge axis will move across the central plains through
Thursday, so no precipitation expected. Temperatures will attempt
to warm up both Wednesday and Thursday under the ridge and with a
westerly surface wind, but snow cover should hamper full
potential and trended a little cooler both days except along the
southern and eastern edges where snow was less and is already
melting. Secondary concern will be the potential for critical fire
weather conditions outside of snow covered areas, again the
southern and eastern edges of the forecast area. Currently
relative humidity and wind speeds are forecast to be above
criteria on Wednesday so thinking elevated fire conditions at
worst. Thursday looks a little better on both criteria and would
not take much more to push it into critical, but currently just a
tad shy so will withhold a fire weather watch this far north for

.LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Next shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and across the
plains on Friday and early Saturday as an open wave. Forcing
appears to be too weak to overcome dry lower and mid levels and
models continue to be dry. Accompanying surface cold front will
drop temperatures closer to normal for both days. Strong upper
ridge quickly rebuilds for Sunday and Monday resulting in another
period of dry conditions and warming temperatures. Start to see
height falls with the next system on Tuesday with a surface cold
front possibly backing into the area Tuesday night. It could bring
a chance for fog/freezing fog/some very light snow...but
confidence at that time range is lacking, and only the GFS is
showing that scenario at the moment. Better precipitation chances
will probably hold off until Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 928 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For the entire
period the winds will be from west to southwest at 6 to 10 knots.
No gusts expected at this time.




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