Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH


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