Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 281314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND HAIL...WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATER TODAY BEFORE EXITING THE COAST WITH THE FRONT BY EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. STRONG HEATING IS TAKING PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY. WE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY AROUND OR JUST WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH STORMS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BETWEEN 4 AND 6
PM. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT ECHOES ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST
OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
SHOWING UP NICELY ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG FROM
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF MAINE. WHILE THE HRR SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING ON AS SHEAR AND UVM INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED
WORDING TO INCLUDE STRONG GUSTY WIND AND TORRENTIAL RAIN...AS
WELL AS SMALL HAIL. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION EXITING EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING AND MUCH LESS HUMID TONIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME PATCHY
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME
LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN INTERIOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB LATE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LOOK FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AND SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MAINE DURING THAT PERIOD...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM UP WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME
TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BCMG VFR AFT 00Z WITH LCL
MVFR PSBL FRI AM IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MARGINAL SCA CONDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND SEAS BUILDING. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN.
DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER



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