Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
FXUS61 KGYX 311857
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
A cold front will move across the region tonight followed by cool
high pressure through Thursday. The high will gradually moves off
to our east Thursday night and Friday. A warm front will approach
during this time along with a chance of showers. Low pressure may
result in unsettled weather late in the weekend and early next
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A cold front will move across the region this evening. The front
will not be all that noticeable except in the western ME mountains
and northern Coos County where a few showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm are possible. Cooler and drier air will
filter in tonight the wake of the front.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected on Wednesday with high pressure in
control. It should warm up pretty good during the morning and
early afternoon hours with a good amount of sun. During the
afternoon SFC high pressure will build southwestward through the
gulf of maine and bring a backdoor front inland during the late
afternoon hours. This will result in rapid cooling on the coastal
plain late in the afternoon and early evening. The low level cool
air mass will spread westward overnight Wednesday night. The air
mass should also moisten as the night wears on resulting in the
development of low clouds and perhaps some fog and drizzle.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall expecting temperatures to be near or below normal right
through the middle of next week. High temperatures in the 60s and
70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s should keep many air
conditioners from appearing in windows for at least one more
Cool onshore southeast flow continues on Sunday as high pressure
shifts a little further east and a front moves east through the
eastern Great Lakes. This will keep temperatures cool especially
near the coast. The the north and west, temperatures may reach the
mid 70s, but coastal locations will be lucky to reach the low 60s.
On Friday the front makes its way through New England, with clouds
and showers as it does so. As is typical with many fronts in New
England, it will be warmer behind the front as winds go offshore
and downsloping northwest winds on Saturday bring temperatures
into the 70s... possibly near 80 in spots.
An upper level low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes
will begin to generate an onshore easterly flow again over the
region on Sunday, with rain arriving Sunday evening into Monday.
GFS and ECMWF still differ a bit on the timing of this, with the
GFS slower and deeper with the trough and the ECMWF more
progressive with it. But the two models have come into a little
better alignment than yesterday, helping to narrow down the timing
of heaviest rainfall to Sunday evening through Monday evening. It
will take a few days for the upper low to fully exit the area so
there could be some showers lingering through Tuesday with
temperatures remaining a little cooler than normal for early June.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected Tonight into Wednesday
evening. Low level moisture will increase on onshore flow
Wednesday night and may allow conditions to deteriorate to IFR in
low clouds and fog, mainly on the coastal plain.
Long Term...Will probably see low clouds and fog (possibly IFR)
continue through Thursday and into Friday along the coastal plain.
A front moves in from the west on Friday bringing a chance of
showers and eventually offshore winds which should bring some
clearing. Should see a period of VFR from Saturday through much of
Short Term...Conditions are expected to remain below small craft
advisory thresholds tonight through Wednesday night. However,
marine fog could limit visibilities Wednesday night.
Long Term...Light winds expected over the waters as high pressure
shifts into the Atlantic and a weak front tries to move into the
Gulf of Maine. The next chance for advisory level conditions will
probably be early next week when a low pressure system moves out
of the great lakes and increases the easterly flow over the waters
before it arrives.
Relative humidity values are expected to increase each day
starting Wednesday as temperatures cool and onshore flow develops.
Winds will generally be light into the weekend.