Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250321 AAC
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1121 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will cross the area Sunday
into early next week weekend into early next week bringing us
the chance of showers or thunderstorms, especially in the
mountains. Otherwise temperatures will be near normal with
lower humidity into mid week. Warmer and more humid conditions
move in at the end of the week, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...With shower activity decreasing quickly...will speed up
the PoP drop off. Will have to keep an eye on decaying showers
over VT to see if any can sneak into Coos County before drying
up.

Previous discussion...A short wave trough will exit the
northern areas this evening with any stray showers diminishing
over the mountains of Maine.

Otherwise, a very quiet overnight period is expected tonight as
drier air continues to enter the region on westerly winds. This
will allow dew points to drop from around 70 degrees earlier in
the day to the much more comfortable 50s. This will allow for
much cooler temperatures during the overnight hours when
compared to a muggy night last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Yet another short wave trough will approach New England on
Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase during the day as Cu
builds, mainly over northern areas. Scattered showers will be
triggered as the atmosphere becomes unstable. A few
thunderstorms are possible as well, mainly during the afternoon
and early evening hours.

There will be some cooling aloft. Afternoon high temperatures
will be in the 70s north and Midcoast region to the lower 80s
across the southern interior.

Highest pops will be in the north with lowest along the coast.
These showers will continue through the first half of the night
over the northern/mountain regions, closest to the best dynamics
of the exiting trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 mb pattern across NOAM continues to remain quite changeable
and unstable while blocking hold well to the east over Europe
and well to to the west over the Pacific. This continue to make
forecasting beyond three or four days more challenging than it
usually already is.

Overall the models are in better for the early to mid week
period as a 500 mb trough deepens to our west, and extends far
enough equatorward that is should cut off the return of warm
humid air for a few days. The bad news is that several waves
move through the trough and will bring a threat of threat of
showers, and maybe some thunder, to the area Mon and Tuesday,
especially in the mountains. Highs will generally run in the 70s
across the entire area, and with more W flow, it will be
warmest along the coast and in southern NH, where highs could
reach around 80, and coolest in the mountains which will be
closer to 70.

By Thu we will see ridging building again over the wrn Atlantic
and a return of very warm and more humid conditions. Highs will
be in the 80s most places, with a run at 90 possible in those
warmer areas. S-SW flow will make it cooler on the coast. Could
see several rounds showers and thunderstorms in the Thu night
to Saturday period, as waves move through the WSW flow over the
top of the ridge, perhaps in MCS like fashion. Latest 12Z Euro
carves out a deeper trough that would move through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...
Pockets of MVFR conditions are occurring this morning in lower
ceilings/-SHRA and the occasional -TSRA associated with a cold
frontal passage. TS Cindy is also contributing to the moist
airmass. Fog has yet to affect RKD but is expected to affect
them briefly. Most of the dense fog is expected to remain over
eastern Maine and offshore this morning. Conditions improve to
VFR as drier air works in today on developing gusty westerly
winds. Winds diminish after sunset.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Monday through Thu, but temp0 flight
restrictions in SHRA/TSRA will be possible most afternoons,
especially at KHIE/KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas continue to diminish...so SCA has been
cancelled.

Long Term...Expect a light W-SW flow over the waters through
the middle of the week, before flow shifts more S-SW late in the
week and increases.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The highest astronomical tide of the month will occur tonight.
The total tide will likely come in just above 12 feet despite a
westerly flow over the waters. Very minor coastal flooding is
possible along the most vulnerable low lying side streets near
the wharfs in Portland, as well as Granite Point road in
Biddeford and the Backbay area of Hampton, New Hampshire.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro



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