Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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399
FXUS61 KGYX 291301
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
901 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south through the region early
today and will stall south of New England tonight as high
pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will crest
over the region early Sunday before shifting offshore. A warm
front will lift north toward the region Sunday night and
Monday. Low pressure slowly moving northeast out of the Great
lakes will drive an occlusion through the region Monday night
and early Tuesday. A trough of low pressure will linger over
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will approach
from the south on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9am update... clearing is beginning to work its way into New
Hampshire this morning and showers have dissipated so have
removed mention of rain through the morning. Will see a few
gusty winds this afternoon as the front moves through.

6AM Update....
Quick update to adjust temps/tds/sky and rh grids. Some light
shower activity showing up across the region early this morning
as a cold front drops south through the region. Not seeing any
reports of rain in current surface obs and expect little if
anything reaching the ground as precip falling out of 10k mid
level deck of clouds. After a mostly cloudy morning expect
diminishing clouds this afternoon as the front pushes south. No
other changes planned attm.

Previous disc...
Weak frontal boundary dropping south through the region this
morning not producing much more than variable clouds across the
region. Radar showing some light shower activity back across the
lower Hudson Valley and southern New England and some of this
activity may scrape southern zones during the early morning
hours. Expect any QPF to be light and spotty. After variable
high and mid level clouds this morning...expect increasing sun
this afternoon as the front pushes south of the region.
Freshening westerly flow will help boost temperatures well above
normal with most areas ranging through the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Frontal boundary will stall south of New England tonight as high
pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Looking for
mostly clear skies overnight and diminishing winds. Lows will
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s north and lower to mid 40s
south.

High pressure will shift offshore on Sunday as stalled frontal
boundary begins lifting north as a warm front. Looking for
increasing high and mid level clouds during the day as the front
edges in from the west. May also see a late day shower in
northwest zones as mid level over-running becomes more
organized but any QPF should be light and spotty. Will see
cooler temperatures with much of the region ranging through the
50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will start out with strong stacked low
pressure over the central plains Sunday night which will then
move toward the Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, mid and
upper level ridging will pump northward over New England. This
sounds like a good thing for our neck of the woods, but high
pressure over Ontario will nose in at the SFC across New England
which should keep us cool, cloudy, and potentially drizzly. The
good news is that strong forcing for ascent will remain to our
north and west Sunday night and Monday which should keep any
heavy rainfall across Quebec and northern ME. However, drier air
aloft combined with easterly SFC winds will likely keep much of
our CWA colder than normal with a good chance of low clouds and
drizzle through Monday.

Eventually the low pressure system does kick northeastward out
of the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday which will aid in
kicking the dreary low level air mass out of here. This should
allow us to warm up into the 60s on Tuesday but still with a
good deal of clouds and the potential for showers.

High pressure will build in on Wednesday in the wake of a cold
front but it will be a cooler airmass. However, we`ll mostly be
dry except for the mountains which may see some showers,
especially earlier in the day.

Early indications are that a strong low pressure system will
move northeastward toward our region Thursday and Friday which
could set the stage for some heavy rainfall. However, confidence
is low at this time given the time range from the potential
event.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today through Sunday.

Long Term...IFR conditions likely develop by late Sunday night
or Monday morning as easterly flow provides low clouds and light
rain or drizzle. These conditions likely persist through Monday
night before some improvement is likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...SCA conditions likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate humidity levels expected through Sunday with a few
scattered showers adding to the moisture this morning. No fire
weather issues expected through the weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



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