Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 011510 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1110 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INLAND
ALONG WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WHICH ARE MATCHING MESOSCALE MODELS WELL...
PARTICULARLY THE WRF. OTHERWISE LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF
LIFTING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES


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