Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 262003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1003 AM HST TUE JUL 26 2016

A trade wind weather pattern can be expected over the next several
days as high pressure builds in to the north of the state. Clouds
and passing light showers will favor windward and mauka areas. An
upper level low is forecast to pass by just north of the area
this weekend with shower chances increasing especially over
windward and mauka locations.


High Pressure will gradually build in north of the state later
this week and on into the weekend. This will cause an increase in
trade winds speeds across the area. Also a drier airmass will
spread in from the east resulting in less humid conditions over
the next few days. Ridging aloft will keep the airmass rather
stable. The end result will be for abundant sunshine over most
leeward locations with clouds and light passing showers for some
windward and mauka locations. Daytime heating will also cause
clouds to build up over the Kona and Kau slopes each afternoon
with a few showers a possibility.

As we head into the weekend and on into early next week, an upper
level low currently centered far to the east of the area will
move westward with time. Models show the center of it passing by
just to the north of the state this weekend. However it will
likely be close enough to cause a less stable airmass across the
area. This along with an increase in moisture availability will
likely cause an increase in shower activity especially for
windward and mauka areas. The trade winds will be sufficiently
strong to cause some showers to possibly reach select leeward


Trade winds have become re-established across the state in the
wake of Darby as high pressure builds back in from the north and
northeast. But the high pressure north of the state is weak and a
stronger high remains well to the northeast. Thus the winds are
varying between east and east-southeast so far today. This will
enable sea breezes to kick in at times today. The trades will
become stronger and more northeast to east Wednesday and Thursday
as the high far to the northeast drifts further west.

Expect mostly VFR conditions through midweek. Daytime heating will
likely produce mainly interior cloudiness so will have to monitor
cloud coverage but not AIRMET for mountain obscurations at this
time. Will also have to monitor the returning trade wind strength
late today into Wednesday as moderate low level turbulence may be
generated with increasing wind speeds.


As high pressure builds in to the north of the state, trade winds
will increase across the area. A Small Craft Advisory is currently
posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and The
Big Island. Winds may increase enough to cause Small Craft
Advisory conditions elsewhere later in the week.

The strengthening trade winds will cause an increase in short
period choppy surf along east facing shores. Surf heights are
expected to remain below advisory levels. There will also be a
series of small southerly swells through the week and on into the


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-
Big Island Southeast Waters.



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