Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 261401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
401 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING
SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK NORTHEAST
TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDWARD
AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE HIGHER PW
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

FOSTER



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