Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 070646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS BUT MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WIND WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...WITH
PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS JUST NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REACH THE
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HENCE LOOK
FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR THE
STATE...THOUGH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE WINDWARD AREAS.

TRADE WINDS ARE RAMPING UP IN THE COMING DAYS...AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO
FRESH BREEZES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AIR MASS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
STATE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST IN THE COMING DAYS.
REGARDLESS...STILL EXPECT TRADE WIND WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MODERATE SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP UNDER THE
MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY ALSO
REACH THE LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER THE STRONGER WINDS.

A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE TROPICS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST MUCH MORE CHALLENGING FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING
NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY PASSING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STATE TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
WHAT WEATHER THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. AS A REMINDER...THE
HURRICANE SEASON IS UPON US AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED...PLEASE
USE CHECKLISTS AND INFORMATIONAL RESOURCES EITHER ON OUR WEBSITE OR
STATE CIVIL DEFENSE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A MODERATE E-NE TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS AT PHLI AND PHTO OVERNIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

VAD WIND PROFILE DATA FROM RADARS ACROSS THE STATE...CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN LACK OF ANY MODERATE TURB REPORTS...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING AN AIRMET FOR NOW. LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE
SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE E AND NE OF MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND...MAY RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WILL MONITOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ISSUE AN AIRMET IF NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
ADVISORY HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
SOUTH FACING SHORES CONTINUE. THESE SWELLS WILL DECLINE DURING BY
THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF THE SHORT
PERIOD CHOPPY SURF TO THE EAST FACING SHORES...THOUGH SURF HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME.
SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
THE TYPICAL WINDY COASTAL ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND DUE TO THE WINDS. AS THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS MAY
SPREAD TO THE OTHER COASTAL ZONES LATER.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI KAHOOLAWE MAUI AND BIG
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...JELSEMA





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