Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230825
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop southeast across the area today and will
interact with the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain today into
tonight. Behind the system, temperatures will drop below normal
for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A complex scenario is setting up across the region today. Deep
tropical moisture has been lifting into the region ahead of
what remains of Cindy. Band of showers associated with that
moisture has is now lifting across the nrn counties.

As the center of Cindy lifts north today, the models develop a
band of heavy rain across the region. Models have been
struggling with their placement of the band. The last few runs
of the RAP and HRRR have trended towards a more southern
placement, bringing the heavy rain swath into the Cinci Tri-
State around 12Z. Previous models were showing this a little
farther to the north.

So expect this first heavy rain band to affect se IN into srn
OH this morning. Then as the cdfnt drops south today, showers
and thunderstorms will drop down from nrn OH/IN and will combine
into a large swath. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will be possible in
the srn areas, with locally higher amounts possible. Will keep
the flash flood watch up as is.

In addition to the flood threat today, there will be a chance of
severe weather se of I-71. A 40-50 kt jet which is forecast to
move across TN into srn KY this afternoon, createes favorable
low-level shear. Storms will be capable of producing strong
winds along with a tornado.

Highs today will range from the mid 70s in the Whitewater Valley
to the lower 80s in the lower Scioto Valley and ne KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing this evening
with heavy rain still affecting the southeast. The precipitation
will push east of the region during the first half of the night.
Temperatures will drop down to the lower to mid 60s. An isolated
location in the nw might reach the upper 50s.

On Saturday, a S/W will swing across nrn OH in the fast
westerly H5 flow. Showers try to develop across nrn Ohio on
Saturday. For now left them north of the region, but this might
have to be adjusted in later forecasts. Highs will range from
the mid 70s in the nw to lower 80s in the se on Saturday.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high will nose in from the sw Saturday night. The clouds
should scattered out as a result. Lows will drop down into the
mid and upper 50s.

Another S/W pivots through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Once again
this may lead to few showers but left the region dry at this
point. Temperatures will be cool Sunday, with highs in the
mid/upper 70s.

With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes
can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday.
Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be
about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and
middle 70s.

Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes
which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the
northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday
with highs generally in the mid 70s.

Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing
on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday
in the lower 80s.

Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow
increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.

The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through
the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn.  With an
increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Area of rain moving east-northeast will exit ILN and DAY TAF
sites as it reaches CMH/LCK and lingers there for a few hours
early this morning. Area of rain well southwest of the region
will work in and most TAF sites will be raining towards daybreak
as the remnants of ts Cindy gets pulled northeast and into the
Ohio Valley this afternoon. Attm, showers are not exhibiting any
lightning from this system and the instability with the northern
line of storms will weaken as the moisture tap from the gulf
interrupts the deeper convection as the forcing of the front
moves south into the region.

Widespread rain will be found over all of the TAF sites at one
point in time today, but models continue to vary in the timing
and placement of the heaviest rain, which would have the higher
propensity of thunderstorm activity today. Continue to hold off
on inclusion of TS at TAF sites for now given uncertainty in
spatial and temporal coverage of the thunder.

As the front begins to move through towards evening, winds will
shift more westerly and then northwesterly, with a rapid
improvement as rain ends from nw-se.

MVFR/IFR CIGs will likely linger for a while after rain ends,
with an improvement to generally clear skies at end of the
extended TAF period at CVG.

OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...AR/Sites
AVIATION...Franks


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