Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240827
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
427 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A chance for showers will continue today and into Wednesday, as
a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes.
High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a
slight increase in temperatures. Another cold front will move
into the area late on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Highly amplified mid/upper level flow pattern with large deep
trof over the eastern U.S. and a strong ridge over the west.
Initial s/w is rotating into lower MI as next s/w visible on wv
imagery is pivoting thru Indiana. A surface reflected trof and
axis of rain showers pushing into western Ohio was a result of
this s/w. Expect these showers to push east across ILN/s area
through the early morning hours. As the favorable lift exists
the area expect a general lull in pcpn activity later this
morning.

Additional showers are expected to develop this afternoon as
next s/w currently digging across IA comes into play. Have gone
categorical for the early morning activity and then high chance
this afternoon with the best coverage across the north. Clouds,
pcpn and caa will keep temperatures down today. Expect highs
from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Large mid level trough will keep conditions cloudy and cool
through mid week. Have diminished pops this evening, keeping
only chc/slight chc pops across the northern counties thru the
night. Cool night with lows from the upper 30s to near 40.

Model solutions show a digging s/w dropping into the mean trof
position over the Ohio Valley Wednesday. This will provide a
continued threat of a shower. H8 thermal trof settles into the
region with temps of -1 to -3 degrees C by evening. Expect
temperatures to be close to 15 degrees below normal with highs
only reaching the upper 40s in many locations.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough will be departing east Wednesday night, with
isolated showers ending before midnight. Frost may form toward
daybreak Thursday when temperatures fall to near freezing. High
pressure centered to the south will provide dry weather Thursday
into Friday. Impressive moisture advection along a cold front
developing ahead of a high amplitude upper trough will bring the
likelihood for showers late Friday through Saturday, with
showers lingering Sunday mainly in eastern locations. Expect
drier conditions Monday when high pressure is forecast to build
to the south.

Look for near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday, with highs
around 60. Readings will then plunge below normal in a regime of
cold advection Saturday through Monday, yielding highs around 50.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Several surface troughs will rotate through the area as a deep
upper level low migrates through the Great Lakes. This will
result in several bands of rain showers that will pivot
across the area overnight into Tuesday. VFR CIGS will drop down
to MVFR toward sunrise as the next axis of pcpn moves in. These
MVFR are generally expected to lift back to VFR by late
morning/early afternoon before coming back down this evening.

Vsbys will also be variable with VFR conditions outside of rain
showers but dropping to MVFR or lower in some of the heavier
rain showers. Pcpn coverage will generally decrease though the
morning into the afternoon hours.

Breezy southwest to west winds will persist today with some
gusts to up 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible at times
through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR


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