Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 282350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW NORMAL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON A
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING RAIN
ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A
BROAD EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN ON A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS SHOULD SHOW A DECREASING TREND
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS QUICKLY AS SUGGESTED BY A MODEL
BLEND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED UNDER A DOME OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL BE FAR TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW COLD ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHERLY
FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S...DECREASING TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS HIGH
SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EJECTION OF ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE ALSO TENDED TO TRACK THE
RESULTING SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALMOST TAKES ON AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDIBILITY TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION
AS IT IS SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT NOT AS DRAMATICALLY
SLOWED AS THE 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...FRIDAY POPS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW OR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL IN PLAY FOR INCLUSION IN THIS PACKAGE.
SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO RAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE HOW FAST MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK ERODES AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. MODELS...AS IS
TYPICAL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS.
BELIEVE DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER. HAVE THIS OCCURRING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP STAYING LONGER IN THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK AND IF THIS OCCURS...WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...SOME HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
HEATING OF THE DAY THAT SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
KCMH/KLCK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HICKMAN





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