Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 300221
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, providing
a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in
on Monday, with drier conditions expected through the middle of
the week. Another cold front will approach the region on Thursday,
bringing the next chance for precipitation.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cluster of thunderstorms e of ILN will continue to drift to the
SE tonight as cdfnt works in from the w. Expect a weakening trend
as this occurs with pcpn being e of the fa by 06Z.
Behind the convection the skies should be mostly clear. Some
patchy fog could be possible from the heavy rains that fell.
Lower dewpoints should work in overnight, allowing temperatures to
fall into the lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the weak front, no huge change in air mass is expected,
though dewpoints will be 5-8 degrees lower than they were over the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the
lower Ohio Valley, providing light northwesterly flow across the
ILN CWA. Drier conditions will allow for mostly sunny skies, and
thus despite the wind shift, temperatures will again be able to
reach the lower 80s across the entire forecast area.
As the surface high spreads northeast across the region and into
southern Michigan, tranquil conditions are expected on Monday
night, with lows in the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue over the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Warm temperatures in the lower to mid 80s will
persist with lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
A mid level trough is still advertised to move from the northern and
central Plains to the Great Lakes Region Wednesday into Thursday.
Most of the region will squeeze out one more dry day on Wednesday as
high pressure moves off to the east. There could be enough moisture
and diurnal instability late in the day on Wednesday for a low
chance of showers/storms far west. As the mid level trough moves
through the region on Thursday, an associated cold front at the
surface will move through as well. There are some minor timing
differences, but the region is still expected to see a gradual
increase in showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday. Warm
highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday will be tempered on
Thursday by clouds and the threat for precipitation.
For Thursday night into Friday, the cold front is forecast to exit
southeast of the region, ushering in cooler and drier air with the
threat for precipitation ending. Highs on Friday will range in the
75 to 80 degree range.
For the upcoming weekend, the upper level pattern will transition to
a broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High
pressure on Saturday will give way to a weak disturbance Saturday
night into Sunday. Have kept a low chance of showers and storms with
this system at this time. Temperatures will generally range from 75
to 80 degrees for highs with upper 50s to lower 60s for lows.
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered convection is ongoing at issuance time across the
TAFS ahead of a cdfnt. Best coverage is between KILN and KLCK and
is drifting east. Expect the thunderstorms activity to be east of
the TAFS by 02-03Z.
Skies should be mostly clear for the rest of the night then as
winds turn to the w. Went with some MVFR fog at KLUK due to river
Some fair wx cu is expected tomorrow with the nw winds aloft.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday.