Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 061726
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES AND
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO REBOUND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE
TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING
SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE
DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES





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