Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240221
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT UNDER
THIS INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY AIRMASS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
DROPPING OFF INTO THE 50S. CONTD PREV FCST THINKING GOING ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN COLD OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO MID/UPR
40S IN CITIES. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG...JUST
ADJUSTING TIMING A LTL LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW CLEAR...DRY WEATHER TO
PERSIST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY...WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOP TO THE WEST. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE...ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SLIPPING A BIT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TUESDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE REGION OF SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WX. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED FOG WHICH WILL AFFECT KLUK OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR





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