Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 081145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN HAS BEEN SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL FILL
IN SOME MORE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR
WEST ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 32 DEGREES NOW...SO THINK PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO OUR EAST
ARE INTERESTING AS KZZV AND KUNI ARE INDICATING SOME DECENT WET
BULBING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PCPN CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THERE...BUT FARTHER WEST AT KCMH AN KPMH...PCPN
GENERALLY REMAINS ALL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD
SET UP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREA WHERE
PCPN COULD AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ALL RAIN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME MIX WORK INTO OUR WEST LATE AS WE START TO GET INTO A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE MOVE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD THEN
BUMP BACK UP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW
EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES
UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA.

MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN
WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE
IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN
ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE
LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5
TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER
CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE
LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR
OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT
BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID
OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS
THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED
SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES


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