Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK





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