Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS63 KIWX 202351
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER
50S WEST BUT REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH SRN SASK/NE MT THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST TO
ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY MONDAY EVE AND PHASE WITH SRN PLAINS UPR LOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS WITH SCT SHOWERS DVLPG MON AFTN. WK INSTABILITY AND
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN... SO A FEW
TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY NW 1/2 OF CWA.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS, DRY LOW LEVELS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA FOLLOWING AFTN HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. WARMER START TO THE
DAY MONDAY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE M70S DESPITE INCRSG CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ONGOING FCST/GRIDS REFLECT
THE LATEST HANDLING BY THE GFS OF THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WITH READINGS RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED THE GFS WITH CORRESPONDING MODEL
GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE GENERATING
TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THE GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WELL. REJECTED ALLBLEND TEMPS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE ALLBLEND WAS FINALLY CATCHING UP TO THE GFS AFTER BEING
APPARENTLY TOO WARM EARLIER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CAN NOT
BUY ALLBLEND RAIN CHANCES THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...ONE OF
THE FEW SUPPORTING WET RUNS HAS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...SO KEPT THIS WEEKEND DRY. THE GFS ADVERTISES A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH OUT OF
CANADA. STILL ON BOARD WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PD. SW TROF OVR THE OK
PANHANDLE WILL EJECT NEWD AND SHEAR OUT ON MON AHD OF A MORE
VIGOROUS DIGGING ACRS THE LAKES MON NIGHT. SHALLOW LL MSTR TONGUE
WWD ACRS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL ADVECT EWD YET WKN W/EWD
EXTENT THROUGH TOMORROW. XPC AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR ESP MON AFTN
BUT PER SOLID HIGHRES CONSENSUS WILL HOLD OFF ON A AFTN SHRA
MENTION AT KSBN W/MORE LIKELY TIMING AFT 00Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.