Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271148 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
648 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.


12Z TAF discussion:

MVFR/IFR CIGs over the area at 11Z wiLl gradually clear from the
west this morning. VFR conditions are expected areawide by 16Z
and VFR conditions will prevail through 09Z tonight. After 09Z
MVFR CIGS are expected to spread north over the southern half of
the area. /22/


.DISCUSSION...Today and tonight: Cooler and drier. Early morning
surface analysis had a 993mb low over northern Illinois with the
trailing cold front across the central portions of our CWA. A weak
1009mb high was also noted over east Texas. The cold front will
shift east of our CWA by sunrise and end the low chances of rain
over east Mississippi. Dry Weather is expected through tonight. The
weak surface high will become centered over our CWA this afternoon
and shift northeast of Mississippi tonight. As the surface high
moves over our area today the clouds will clear out. Satellite
imagery shows the back edge of the cloud cover nearing our western
zones already. Despite decent insolation today, temperatures will
top out cooler than normal at most locations. The cold front moving
through our CWA this morning will stall near the Gulf coast this
afternoon then return north as a warm front after midnight tonight.
This will be in response to another deepening surface low to our
west. Model consensus has the warm front near the interstate 20
corridor by sunrise but rain chances look to hold off until during
the day. /22/

Friday through Wednesday Night: The next upper-level low pressure
system will be digging the Four Corners region on Friday into
Saturday, leading to the next stretch of impactful weather for our
forecast area. As the upper low digs southward, a pair of surface
lows will develop over North Texas and lift northeastward. The
first low will lift a warm front through the area Friday, with
increasingly hot and humid air moving into the ArkLaMiss. Dewpoint
temps in the low 70s will surge northward into our area during
the day while air temperatures climb to near 90 degrees. This
moist atmosphere should remain capped thanks to subsidence aloft,
but an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out somewhere
around the area. Breezy southerly winds can be expected, but do
not currently think sustained winds will reach advisory speeds.
The second surface low develops on Saturday and will be slower to
lift northward, allowing for a stronger pressure gradient to
develop across our area. A wind advisory may be needed on
Saturday, especially in the Delta where sustained winds around 25
mph could occur.

Then attention quickly shifts to an increasing potential for severe
weather and heavy rainfall ahead of the approaching storm system. A
cold front moving into the region late Saturday night through the
day on Sunday will serve as the primary focus for thunderstorm
development, but a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out late in the
day on Saturday. The chance for severe thunderstorms increases
on Sunday as the upper low edges closer and a more favorable wind
profile develops. Forecast PWAT values near or above 2.0 inches are
above the climatological maximum for this time of year, indicating
that thunderstorms will be very efficient rain makers. Will continue
a mention of flash flooding potential in our graphical and text
Hazardous Weather Outlook products. Models remain in fairly decent
agreement on the timing for the front to move through our area, with
a general consensus for heavy rain to be exiting far eastern
Mississippi by late Sunday evening. Details are still less certain
regarding the next threat for severe weather, but an upper-level
trough passage next Wednesday or Thursday could usher another round
of thunderstorms through the region. /NF/


Jackson       77  64  88  71 /   0   3  17   8
Meridian      80  61  87  70 /   1   3  17   8
Vicksburg     75  61  87  71 /   0   3  15   8
Hattiesburg   83  65  87  70 /   2   9  20   8
Natchez       77  64  88  72 /   0   4  17   8
Greenville    73  59  86  71 /   0   3  20  21
Greenwood     74  59  88  71 /   0   3  16  15





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