Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300157
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
857 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.UPDATE...A large cut-off upper low remains centered over central KY
this evening with plenty of dry cool air in place across the CWA
behind last night`s re-enforcing cold frontal passage. High
temperatures today were very fall-like and the coolest we`ve seen
since mid May. Latest satellite imagery and obs indicate a band of
stratocumulus clouds across the HWY 82 corridor rotating around the
upper low. This cloud cover has slowed the rate of cooling across
some of our northern locations, but is expected to dissipate in the
very dry environment. Latest obs also indicated that the boundary
layer has already decoupled at multiple locations across the CWA with
radiational cooling well underway. The only changes for this forecast
update were to lower the min temps a degree or two based on latest
guidance and trends, adjust the hourly temps accordingly, and update
the cloud cover. /TW/

&&

.AVIATION...A band of stratocumulus will continue dropping south this evening
resulting in VFR ceilings at GTR. The ceiling looks to lower from
30/12Z to 30/18Z at GWO and GTR, rising to VFR thereafter./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday night...An upper level low
dropping southeast towards the Tennessee Valley could bring a few
clouds to the Golden Triangle area overnight and on Friday.
Otherwise, with high pressure prevailing across the region and
continued north to northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft, look
for continued cool and dry conditions across the region as we head
into the weekend.

Under clear skies tonight, except those few clouds meandering about
across Northeast Mississippi, lows will be chilly as they fall into
the low and middle 50s.  On Friday, highs will rebound a degree or
two compared to Thursday, but will still only top out around the 80
degree mark.  The only exception being East Central Mississippi
where very dry soil conditions will help promote slightly warmer
highs compared to the rest of the CWA.  Then for Friday night, lows
will again fall into the low and middle 50s. /19/

Saturday through Wednesday night...Looks like a pretty quiet
extended forecast is on tap for the ArkLaMiss. Upper troughing will
continue over the area on Saturday as the upper low over the Ohio
Valley continues to move to the northeast. The models do suggest a
weak frontal boundary dropping across the area Saturday afternoon,
with this boundary mainly being a wind shift to a more northeast
flow. A nice day is on tap for Saturday with highs only climbing into
the low 80s. Another cool night is on tap for Saturday night as the
winds should decouple allowing for good radiational cooling Sunday
morning. Lows will generally be in the mid 50s.

The global models suggest warmer h850/h925 temps on Sunday, thus
expect warmer afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Both the GFS/ECMWF
begin to build upper ridging over the area Sunday night into Monday
with a warming trend beginning. Highs on Monday will climb into the
mid 80s, and as upper heights increase across the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. The GFS/ECMWF both deepen an upper trough over
the southern plains on Wednesday with the ECMWF the faster of the
models. The ECMWF develops some precip over the area on Wednesday
and Wednesday night, while the GFS keeps the precip west of the area
through this period. Will introduce just slight chance thunder
across portions of the area during this period. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      52  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     52  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   54  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       52  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    54  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   1
Greenwood     51  78  53  82 /   0   1   0   1

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/15



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