Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 270132 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
832 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016
Overall a quiet night is in store as some drier air has moved in
from the east. Surface and upper ridge axis (595DM) is situated over
the Appalachians to Delmarva and ridging extending into our area.
This ridge has gradually shifted slightly northeast. Heights have
fallen somewhat over the past 24 hours in our area but biggest change
overall is the drop in moisture. PW`s have fallen from just below 2
inches to around 1.5 inches. This will promote some cooler lows
overnight in the low 70s. Due to some higher moisture to the west and
previous convection today, added some patchy fog overnight, mainly
between 09-14Z Saturday. POPS look good and the region will stay dry
overnight. No other changes needed. /DC/
.AVIATION...The afternoon/early evening convection has shifted west
of GLH and no additional convection is expected tonight. VFR
conditions were observed at all TAF sites at 01Z and will prevail
until 10z. MVFR visibilities will be possible from 10-13Z. VFR
conditions will resume areawide by 14Z and prevail through Saturday
evening. Afternoon TSRA activity will be isolated and mainly west.
.DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
Convection popped up around 16Z today and has not been as widespread
as previous days this week. Some of these storms have produced gusty
winds up to 40mph, but otherwise have been rather tame. Expect this
convection to die off early this, probably around 03Z this evening,
per hi-res models. The early clouds, storms, and the drier air
slowly filtering in has also kept the humidity and temps at bay
today. Have not seen too many heat indices above 100 this afternoon.
Temps will cool overnight to the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will remain anchored over the southeast through the
weekend. This in turn will keep temperatures hot. Easterly surface
flow around the high will bring in some slightly drier air to our
area and leave heat indices only hovering around 100 on Saturday and
Sunday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s still. At this point, do
not see the need to continue the limited for heat in the HWO. Some heat
indices will reach over 100 but not by much and it will be isolated.
The drier air moving into the area will also keep afternoon
convection at bay. Only the southern fringes of the CWA will see any
afternoon storms through the weekend.
The long term discussion has been tweaked in some places, but
overall everything still applies. /10/
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Weather impacts in the extended portion of the forecast continue to
hinge on what transpires in the tropics over the next several days.
Otherwise, warm and somewhat dry conditions are anticipated.
By the beginning of next week, mid/upper ridging centered over the
mid-Atlantic will begin to broaden across much of the
central/eastern CONUS. As this occurs, deep layer moisture is
expected to notably decrease across our area by as much as a half
inch compared to the present. This should help curtail diurnal
precip coverage through much of the long term (of course, absent any
influence from the tropics). It will also invite above normal
temperatures, and heat stress concerns may remain in the picture
over some parts of the area next week.
This afternoon, Invest 99L, the tropical wave of interest, was still
centered between the northern coast of far eastern Cuba and the SE
Bahamas. There continues to be little convection around the center of
the system, though there is disorganized activity from the Cayman
Islands eastward to north of Hispaniola. As this system is weak and
disorganized and is likely to remain that way for the next day or
two, model track forecasts will continue to vacillate from run to
run. If the system survives into late weekend/ early next week, there
will be greater potential for strengthening as the environment
becomes more conducive for development. Until that point, forecast
certainty remains low, and it will remain uncertain how the system
will evolve and whether it might have any influence on weather
conditions in our area.
During the mid/late week time frame, upper troughing will begin to
develop along the Eastern Seaboard. Though the location of any
tropical entity by this time frame is still in question, it`s quite
possible this trough would pull such a system north and eastward. In
the wake of the trough, the upper ridge will amplify over the Plains
states into parts of the Deep South, bringing a continuation of warm
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 72 93 72 94 / 8 9 4 13
Meridian 73 94 71 94 / 5 8 4 7
Vicksburg 73 93 72 93 / 15 9 6 16
Hattiesburg 72 93 73 92 / 4 16 12 25
Natchez 73 91 73 90 / 14 23 14 34
Greenville 73 92 73 94 / 17 8 4 5
Greenwood 73 93 72 95 / 14 8 4 6