Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 280227 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
927 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON...A MORE SUBDUED NIGHT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...
LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVERALL...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. I
DID ADJUST POPS A BIT THIS FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TO FIT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. THIS DID CAUSE ME TO TAKE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS SOME SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AROUND THE
JACKSON METRO AREA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO OTHER HOURLY
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO FIT THEIR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR A QUIET EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT MANY SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (09-11Z).
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY 15Z THURSDAY...WITH VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...A BUSY AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI IS BEGINNING TO
WIND DOWN. STORMS ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI BUT THIS IS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL OF THIS
WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
COMBINING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MANY OF THESE STORMS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT MANY HAVE AT LEAST GOTTEN
STRONG. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG
AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW A GOOD BIT OF RAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS
850MB RIDGING LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE. THERE COULD BE SOME ACTIVITY BUT
EVEN HI-RES MODELS ARENT VERY ROBUST WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO DROP TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP BRING MORE CONVECTION TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW A
TROUGH SWINGING INTO OUR REGION AND STALLING...CLOSING OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  85  68  85 /  16  32  20  39
MERIDIAN      66  85  67  85 /  16  36  20  40
VICKSBURG     69  86  69  86 /  14  16  20  34
HATTIESBURG   68  87  68  86 /  16  35  20  39
NATCHEZ       69  85  70  85 /  14  26  20  37
GREENVILLE    69  86  70  85 /  14  12  20  40
GREENWOOD     68  84  69  85 /  14  22  20  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19



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