Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 200531 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1131 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018


Updated for 06Z aviation discussion


06Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories this evening are expected to eventually give
way to another mix of MVFR/IFR categories as low stratus develops
across the region. These conditions will linger into the late
morning/early afternoon hours Tuesday, before giving way to mainly
VFR categories by mid-afternoon, with some isolated showers
meandering about area. Winds overnight will remain southerly
around 10 knots, and will again increase by late Tuesday morning.
Winds Tuesday will be gusty from the south once again, becoming sustained
between 13-17 knots, gusting at times around 26 knots. /19/


No changes were needed to the forecast for this update. A few light
showers will be possible tonight mainly in the south, along with
some patchy fog late. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle
60s. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Tuesday: Surface ridging and high pressure aloft
will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMiss tonight. The main
concern for the overnight hours will be an increase in stratus
clouds and possibly some patchy fog in the south. Low temperatures
will fall into the low/mid 60s by Tuesday morning.

Moisture will increase across the area on Tuesday with PWATS ranging
from 1.2-1.4 inches by the afternoon hours. Expect an uptick in
showers across the area Tuesday afternoon, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the delta where there will be a little more
instability. The southerly winds will become gusty in the delta
once again with gusts around 25mph possible. Expect very warm
temperatures, with highs in the low/mid 80s for much of the area.

Tuesday night through the weekend: A rather tenacious upper level
pattern featuring mean troughing in the west and ridging in the
southeast will result in a series of systems transiting an
unseasonably moist airmass across the region through the end of
the week. Put more simply, it`s going to be wet.

For the period from Tuesday night through Thursday, a cold front
will initially be situated from the Missouri Valley northeastward
to the Great Lakes, with a broad surge of warm/moist air over the
eastern part of the CONUS ahead of it. This front will make rather
slow southeastward progress toward the area as the upper trough
only nudges eastward. Periodic showers will slide across the area
in this regime, but with a lack of forcing, more organized precip
should hold off for the time being. The front will begin to slow
down late Tuesday night into Wednesday as it moves into the
ArkLaTex/Mid South region, and showers and some thunderstorms will
become more likely into the Delta. Into the day Wednesday, the
front will begin to stall over the northwestern portion of the
CWA, with increasing rain chances areawide, but expect
temperatures to soar again Wednesday afternoon over at least
southeastern portions of the ArkLaMiss.

As the upper trough deepens again slightly over the west, the
front will begin to retreat back northwestward late Thursday.
Upper level forcing is forecast to remain weak to negligible
through this time frame, though weak to moderate instability is
expected, so storms will be possible. Confidence in severe storms
is somewhat low at this point given the weak forcing and somewhat
marginal deep layer shear. Of greater concern with the stalling
front is the potential for flooding to become more of an issue
over parts of the ArkLaMiss Delta. Some rivers in that area
already remain in flood due to above normal precipitation in
recent weeks, so antecedent conditions will be more favorable for
flash flooding or additional river flooding. Given this, we will
begin to highlight a limited flooding threat in the HWO and
associated graphics. This is just a starting point, and the
specifics will be further refined in later forecasts.

For Friday through Sunday night, with the front lifting back to
the northwest, rain chances won`t be as high on Friday, though
they will still be around. However, they will likely ramp up again
Saturday into Sunday as a more potent mid level wave gives the
front a stronger shove across the region. Most parameters with
this system would appear to be more favorable for severe storms
with notably stronger deep-layer shear and steeper upper height
falls. However, this system remains several days out and in a time
frame in which model agreement has been shaky of late, so we`ll
not yet address this in the HWO. Additional rainfall with this
system may only further agitate any flood concerns that crop up
midweek. Keep that rain gear handy, folks. /DL/EC/


Jackson       64  83  66  81 /   7  24  12  73
Meridian      63  82  66  82 /  13  25  28  56
Vicksburg     65  83  65  78 /   4  24  13  90
Hattiesburg   64  82  66  83 /  16  25  28  57
Natchez       65  81  67  81 /  11  25  15  82
Greenville    64  81  65  69 /   3  27  24  90
Greenwood     65  83  66  74 /   7  24  15  87





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