Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 230925
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
325 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Mid level cold core low has finally pushed well
to the east this morning with dry northwest flow and surface cold
advection in its wake. Stout surface pressure gradient will continue
breezy conditions for a good part of the day, but should lessen
somewhat toward sunset. Pesky low level cloud deck will hang around
through the majority of the day, but should still be able to see some
sun at times. Shallow boundary layer moisture trapped under inversion
aloft will continue to be lifted as cooler air filters in during the
day. Cloud cover will erode from the west by late afternoon and
evening as drier air finally begins to advect into the area.

While radiational cooling conditions will not be optimal overnight
tonight due to the lingering cloud cover, lows will still manage to
fall into the 30s over the majority of the forecast area. After days
of warm weather this should feel quite chilly to most with patchy
frost also being a possibility over the northeast half by morning
Tuesday./26/

Tuesday through Wednesday: The arrival of mid/upper ridging and
return flow at the surface will hasten a brief warm up on Tuesday,
with some areas expected to be as much as 10 degrees warmer than
today. This will occur just ahead of a somewhat unremarkable front
that is ticketed to move across the CWA during the daytime
Wednesday. In spite of a limited window of moisture return ahead of
the system, a narrow band of showers is expected to develop along
the front and push eastward across the area through the day.

Thursday into the weekend: Generally quiescent conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period as broad
surface ridging extends from the western CONUS into the Deep South.
A mostly zonal upper jet will remain oriented over the region,
keeping temperatures near seasonal averages. Though there are some
hints of passing shortwaves attempting to wring out precip by the
weekend, we are currently thinking that limited deep layer moisture
will hinder rain chances. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Winds will continue at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots
early diminishing somewhat after sunrise. MVFR ceilings will
continue through the period for most TAF sites. VFR conditions will
return to GLH, GWO, JAN, and HKS around 24/00Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  37  68  54 /   3   0   0   7
Meridian      58  35  65  50 /   2   0   0   5
Vicksburg     57  36  69  56 /   3   0   0  13
Hattiesburg   61  39  69  52 /   4   2   0   5
Natchez       60  40  71  58 /   3   0   0  13
Greenville    54  37  65  53 /   3   0   0  11
Greenwood     53  35  66  53 /   4   0   0   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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