Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 261414
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although the upper low continues to push off to the SE and mid-
level heights have started to increase across the region, a
significant amount of moisture remains over the ArkLaMiss. The JAN
morning sounding recorded 1.84" of PW. Latest consensus of CAM
model guidance has an increased amount of convection this
afternoon. The forecast was updated to slightly increase PoPs for
this time period.


Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: The mid/upper low which has inflated rain
chances across the area over the past several days is now finally
withdrawing toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still, upper
divergence on the west side of the system will continue to aid in
convective development from the coast northward through south MS
today. In addition, despite the shortwave upper ridging beginning
to build across much of the area, a belt of somewhat greater deep
layer moisture remains. This will keep the prospect for isolated
diurnal convection across much of the remainder of the area this
afternoon. Once again, most of these showers will wane by around
sunset, with a mostly clear overnight in store. With the airmass
remaining stagnant, temperatures will again be above normal
today, with highs generally near 90. /DL/

Wednesday through Monday: Building mid level ridge over the gulf
coastal states will limit convective potential Wednesday despite
the advancement of a shallow surface cold front over the TN
valley. What does manage to develop should be confined to areas
mainly west of the MS river where slightly higher surface
dewpoints aid in slightly better instability.

The surface frontal boundary will begin entering the northern
portions late Wednesday night and be completely through by late
Thursday night. Despite the convergence/lift along the boundary,
warm air aloft will keep a lid on any convective potential.

No appreciable cold air will be associated with this airmass, but
temperatures will return to more seasonable levels for this time
of year. The dryness of the air will be a welcome relief over the
recent humidity.

Convergence associated with a westward moving surface trough will
try to produce a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday into
Monday, but warmth aloft will limit this potential to the far
southern portions./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Patchy MVFR fog will be possible early this morning through
shortly after daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible
again this afternoon with highest chances in south MS. Brief
cig/visby reductions possible in any heavy rain. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  69  91  69 /  21   8   6   4
Meridian      90  67  91  67 /  17   3   4   3
Vicksburg     89  69  92  69 /  21   6  11   6
Hattiesburg   88  68  92  68 /  23  14  10   5
Natchez       87  69  90  69 /  28  10  14   9
Greenville    90  68  91  69 /  15   5   7   6
Greenwood     90  68  90  69 /   8   4   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3


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