Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 062132
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE SURFACE HIGH VERY NEAR THE
CWA...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...A
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHEN COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MIDDLE 20S AREAWIDE...WITH A FEW LOCALES
ACROSS MY NORTHERN ZONES PERHAPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BOTH PERIODS...
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS HIGHS SATURDAY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALL INTO
THE 30S.

AFTER A GOOD 48 HOURS OF DRYING OUT...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW
RESIDING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION
ENSUING...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...I
THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THERE
WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TO HAVE TO OVERCOME. THAT SAID...GOOD
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASE
AND THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S...AND IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL BE
WELL UNDERWAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD OVER THE CWA. INITIAL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DIGGING MID LEVEL LOW OVER TX AND HIGH CENTER LOCKED IN OFF THE
EASTERN FL COAST WILL ALLOW AN ANONYMOUSLY SHARP TROF TO CARVE ITS
WAY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RESULTING DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW VERY ANOMAMOLOUS PW/S NEAR 1.75 TO OVERSPREAD THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THESE ANOMOLOUS PW VALUES ARE NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL...THUS ESPECIALLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR.

RAINS LOOK TO BE ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED AS THE FLOW IS FORCED OVER A
SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE WAVE WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE WARM
SECTOR SURGING INLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST OVER THE CWA WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT AND SURFACE WARM
SECTOR...THUS DEEPER CONVECTION WITH THUNDER LOOKS A GOOD BET. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       24  62  34  62 /   0   0   2  52
MERIDIAN      23  62  32  64 /   0   0   2  24
VICKSBURG     21  59  33  60 /   0   0   2  64
HATTIESBURG   25  65  35  69 /   0   0   2  24
NATCHEZ       23  60  36  61 /   0   0   2  61
GREENVILLE    23  56  34  56 /   0   0   2  68
GREENWOOD     21  57  33  57 /   0   0   2  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




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