Area Forecast Discussion
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272
FXUS62 KKEY 221007
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
507 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers were observed on the local Doppler radar over the
waters south and west of Key West. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies
were depicted from satellite imagery, including the Florida Keys.
Temperatures so far this morning have been able to drop to the low
to mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Winds were light and
variable.

.FORECAST...
The Florida Keys will continue to enjoy light to gentle surface
winds due to the lack of a pressure gradient today. Later today,
a surface low area will exit Texas and reach the central waters of
the Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and European show a surface low
over the eastern Gulf by Thanksgiving morning but the GFS shows a
closer circulation while the Euro is a more elongated area of low
pressure. GFS has it over central Florida on Friday while the
Euro has it off the western coast of Florida. For the mean time,
the winds were kept between GFS and Euro, with moderate breezes
for the Gulf waters for Thursday and Friday. While this low passes
to our north, moisture and instability will increase for the
Keys, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. By
Saturday morning, this low will be off the coast of the Carolinas
and its associated front will move southeast over the Keys,
dropping the dew points to the low 60s by Saturday night. Lighter
winds and fair weather will return to the Keys through Sunday.

On Sunday night, a weak cold front will move southeast across the
Florida peninsula, reaching the Keys during the early mornings of
Monday. Drier and cooler weather conditions are then expected for
our local area. After the passage of this front, a high pressure
will build over southeast United States, tightening the pressure
gradient and possibly requiring advisories for the waters from
Monday night on. But the forecast will be adjusted during the next
few days as the GFS and Euro differ regarding the magnitude of the
increase in winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast to east light to gentle breezes will prevail today
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. In increase in winds is
possible on Friday, especially for the gulf waters. A high
pressure will build over southeast US on Sunday, increasing the
winds over the Keys Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon terminals
through Wednesday afternoon. A few passing showers could temporarily
bring MVFR conditions to either terminal, but there is only a slight
chance of that occurrence. Surface winds will be mainly from the
east to southeast between 5 and 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  73  81  72 / 20 20 50 50
Marathon  82  74  83  73 / 20 20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...KN
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas

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