Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 310641
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
241 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
The satellite view of Tropical Depression 9 looks better tonight, but
the overall environment has changed little while drifting north-
northwest under 5 mph. The cirrus shield from TD-9 is streaming
across the area keeping the skies over the Keys overcast. Winds
through the Keys are out of the south-southeast near 15 knots with
higher gusts at the Key West and Marathon terminals, and near 20
knots with gusts near 25 knots from the C-MAN stations along the
Island Chain. Currently, the KBYX radar has isolated showers with a
few migrating boundaries in the area. The evening sounding is
supporting evidence to the MIMIC Derived Total Precipitable Water
products showing the deep layer of moisture across the Keys and South
Florida.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Deep layer moisture within a southerly flow will remain in place at
least through Thursday night. A trough will dip across the eastern
United States late Wednesday night and early Thursday which will
guide TD-9 on a northward track. As TD-9 lifts northward, drier air
currently over the Dominica will filter into the area. The result of
the drier air will arrive Thursday night and early Friday. Moderate
to fresh winds will remain in the forecast through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The drier air, mentioned in the previous section, will reduce the
moisture flux aloft, and lower rain chances a bit, but may also
enhance the chances of thunderstorms for the weekend. Will hold off
on any changes to apparent weather until the TD-9 forecast unfolds a
bit more. Also due to the forecast of the depression, we may have to
make adjustments to winds. This will be dependent on both the track
and intensity of the system as it moves toward the Florida Big bend
area. There is potential for gradient winds to become a bit higher as
TD-9 gains strength. This is also dependent on the track and timing.
Will leave the next few runs to resolve these uncertainties before
making any wholesale changes to the current forecast. Otherwise,
forecast thinking is sound and have no reason for changes to the
extended.

&&

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory remains in effect for all keys waters this
morning. Southeast to south winds are currently around 20 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots. The highest winds are over the western sections
of the area and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The wind forecast is
highly dependent upon the location and intensity of TD-9 but will
make little change due to the uncertainty in the forecast for the
tropical depression.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will remain moderate to occasionally fresh from the south
today and tonight. The chance for rain remains above average, but
will continue with a VCSH based on the intensity of the echoes
currently on KBYX radar, and anticipated for the remainder of the
forecast period. Conditions may temporarily dip to MVFR as discrete
stronger cells move quickly through over the next 24 hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1872, 1.54 inches of rain was recorded on Aug 31. This is a long-
standing rainfall record for this date in Key West, since rainfall
records date back to 1871 for the city.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  86  78  89  80 / 50 40 40 30
Marathon  86  78  89  80 / 50 40 40 30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BWC
Aviation/Nowcasts....04
Data Collection......Chesser

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