Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200925
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
425 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under variably cloudy skies and east to southeast winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts near 30 mph, temperatures are remaining in the
mid 70s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are
detecting widely scattered low top showers racing northwestward
through our county warning area. Surface wise, a subtle undulation
is migrating west northwestward and through our region, with a
large Western Atlantic ridge centered offshore of the extreme
Southeast United States coast. On our coastal waters, east to
southeast winds range from 14 knots at Pulaski Shoal Light to 23
knots at Molasses Reef Light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
In wake of a low level easterly perturbation passes through our
county warning area very early this morning, deep layered ridging
will prompt only nickle to 10 pops through Wednesday night.
Thereafter, another subtle low level undulation will likely pass
through our region on Thursday and perhaps Thursday night when low
chance pops will be inserted. Breezy to windy conditions will
prevail with daytime highs generally in the lower to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
The large Western Atlantic ridge axis extending across extreme
north Florida will sag southward into south Florida and our area
by the end of the weekend and early next week. This will result in
strengthening large scale descent, a decelerating low level flow
along with decreasing moisture. With that, only isolated dime pops
will be returned. Daytime highs will average in the lower 80s with
overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of Florida Bay and the Gulf waters from in and around Dry
Tortugas to the outer waters of Mainland Monroe, a Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect today. Over the next several days,
fresh to strong winds will persist on our entire marine district
but with normal surges and lulls.

&&

.AVIATION...
Occasional MVFR ceilings with vicinity showers will be possible
early this morning, before VFR conditions prevail after 20/15z.
Expect breezy east-southeasterly winds sustained near 15 knots, with
gusts near 25 knots through the terminal forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 2015, the daily record low temperature of 49 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 82 75 81 73 / 20 - - 20
Marathon 84 76 83 74 / 20 - - 20


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ032-035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......DR

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