Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020237
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP BUT WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WESTERLIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DATA
COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH VARIABLE BREEZES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE RADIOSONDE DATA ALSO INDICATED A VERY MOIST...MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY INHIBITED ATMOSPHERE...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ALL EVENING...ALONG OLD CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM OUTFLOW OR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CIRCULATIONS. NEARLY TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT
THE SOUTHERN END OF CUDJOE KEY IN ABOUT A THREE-HOUR PERIOD AS
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMED AND MOVED SLOWLY OVERHEAD.

FORECASTS WILL NEED LITTLE ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE OBSERVED
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF VARIOUS BOUNDARIES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WELL OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
DISINTEGRATING FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST ISLAND CLOUD LINE TO FORM TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF MVFR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITHIN THAT LINE IS NOT TO A SUFFICIENT LEVEL FOR EXPLICIT MENTION
IN THE TAF.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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