Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 221846
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
246 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures are averaging in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile,
local radars are detecting widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms with some cells impacting the western half of the
Lower Keys. In addition, there are several boundaries lurking in
our region. On our marine district, winds vary from northeast to
east at 10 knots or less except north near 10 knots along the
Lower Keys westward to beyond Dry tortugas and both north and
southward for over 40 nm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Our region will lie between Hurricane Marine sliding mainly
eastward of the Bahamian chain and a mid latitude trough digging
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula. With
that, a decoupled flow will prevail with a modest cyclonic flow
above 500 mb but with a light to gentle easterly flow below 700
mb. Given ample moisture but with no discernible low level
trigger, low chance pops will be retained which below a blend of
the ECS/MAV 12 MOS guidance. Changeable skies and light easterly
winds should allow high temperatures to climb near 90 degrees with
overnight lows near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Above normal uncertainty with exiting Hurricane Maria lifting well
out into the northwest Atlantic ocean and the extent of a mid
latitude trough setting up near us. Given low confidence, will
maintain low chance and average temperatures for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from any showers, thunderstorms, outflow boundaries or
possible waterspouts, Northeast to east winds will prevail on Keys
coastal waters for the next couple of days, before light to gentle
east to southeast and then variable winds predominate into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through at least the next
24 hours. MVFR or lower conditions are conceivable at EYW and MTH
late tonight and Saturday morning. This possibility is not great
enough to include in the terminal forecasts at this time. Sustained
northeast to east winds near 10 knots expected from just off the
surface to about 3,000 feet.

$$

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1889, 5.82 inches
of rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record for maximum
rainfall measured in Key West on September 22nd, a record which
still stands 128 years later. Rainfall records at Key West date back
to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  88  80  88 / 30 30 30 30
Marathon  80  91  80  89 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....BS

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.