Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 270110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
910 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The atmosphere has been worked over this evening and showers
activity is in a lull. It is possible the evening sounding may
have sampled the post thunderstorm environment, while reflecting a
quite stable vertical profile. There are plenty of left over
boundaries lurking across the Keys area at this hour, and a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms are sliding over the far
eastern Florida Straits. Winds are out of the east to southeast
near 10 knots at the marine stations, and 5 to 10 knots at the
island terminals.

Expecting east to southeast winds through the short term due to
a weak pressure pattern. The axis of the Atlantic ridge will
nudge ever closer to the Florida Peninsula, but heating over the
peninsula will weaken the gradient around the ridge. With the
mainly east winds, expect cloud lines to remain a good possibility
with interactions from outflow boundaries during the nocturnal
cycle. All this leads to no changes required for this forecast


A weak pressure pattern will remain in place over the Keys coastal
waters through the short term. Expect light winds out of the east
to southeast through Thursday night, with variable flow through
the weekend. No advisory or cautionary statements will be


Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through
28/00z. The best chance for a shower encounter at either terminal
will be a couple hours either side of dawn Thursday per mesoscale
model guidance, potentially resulting in a brief episode or two of
MVFR VIS/CIGs. After the early morning shower activity, drier air is
forecast to filter in to the mid-levels of the atmosphere, acting to
deter the development of any showers or thunderstorms. Winds will
remain light through the forecast period, favoring an east southeast
trajectory at 10 knots or less.


Back in the year 2007, the daily warm low temperature record of 87
degrees was recorded. This also stands as the warmest low
temperature ever to be observed not just during the month of July,
but also ties the all time record for Key West. Temperature records
in Key West date back 145 years to 1872.




Data Collection......Chesser

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