Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281416
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVERLAYED WITH LIGHTNING AND SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE MAIN CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL GULF TROUGH HAS PULLED NORTH OF THE
SERVICE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
AT THIS TIME MAINLY DUE A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS DECKS THAT WERE THE
REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. KBYX RADAR SHOWS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SCAN IN OUR SERVICE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN
OVER OUR NORTHERN GULF ZONES. AFTER AN ROBUST EARLY MORNING
SURGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL
STATIONS ARE REPORTING NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
ISLAND STATIONS ARE 5 TO 10 MPH. MORNING SOUNDING CONTINUED THE TREND
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND PWAT VALUES
ROSE TO 2.16 INCHES. LAUNCH TIME WAS IN THE MIDST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE...SO LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE BRISK AND SOUTHERLY.

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE VISIBLE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DYNAMIC FORCING CONTINUING TO
PULL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA... EXPECT THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE BOUNDARY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE TODAY TIME PERIOD. EXPECT THAT CUBAN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORMATION OF THESE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND
THIS TREND IS ALREADY INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH NO CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS UPSTREAM AND WITH CLOUD LINES UNLIKELY IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED POPS WILL BEST REPRESENT THE
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED PUBLIC
WIND...WEATHER...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES FOR THE DAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AND EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
A MORE PROLONGED THAN EXPECTED SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. ON ACCOUNT OF THIS UPDATE...THE CHANGES IN THE 1030 UPDATE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL. SEAS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXPOSED
SOUTHEASTERN GULF ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AGITATED FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS SURGE...BUT SLACKENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO FALL TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH ANY LOW CLOUD BASES EXPECTED NEAR 025.
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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