Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 300900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.

OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

.LONG TERM...

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  68  81  67 /  90  70  70  30
BTR  82  70  84  68 /  90  50  70  30
ASD  84  68  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  60  50  60  30
GPT  83  72  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
PQL  84  69  83  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35



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