Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 010140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
ONE THAT HAD BEEN MODIFIED LOCALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN IN THE AREA. THERE WAS AN INVERSION
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER JUST BELOW 85O MB. THE SOUNDING
ALSO INDICATED THAT SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAD TAKEN PLACE IN THE 875
TO 550 MB LAYER WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED AT 12Z. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAD DECREASED TO 1.53 INCHES...DOWN FROM
1.93 INCHES THIS MORNING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE
GENERATED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS. THE MOST
NOTABLE BOUNDARY IS OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OR COLD
POOLS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.

SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...

THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ROTATING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON) AND AM CARRYING CHANCE POPS (AROUND 50%) AREA WIDE.
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS
TO TRY AND BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MAY SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
I-59 OVER THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S MOST OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS AVERAGING AROUND 30% THIS WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEATHER TO
BECOME HOTTER WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND
15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THRU
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  10  10
BTR  74  91  76  93 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  76  91  77  92 /  50  50  10  20
MSY  77  91  78  92 /  50  50  10  10
GPT  77  89  78  91 /  50  40  20  30
PQL  75  89  77  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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