Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 272142
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
442 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS QUIETED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS/SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST. RECOVERY IS
UNLIKELY...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVES IN...HOWEVER HIGH END CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THINGS
WILL BECOME MORE SUMMERLIKE AS CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY
DIURNAL INFLUENCES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE MID SOUTH REGION DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SMALL SCALE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
MAIN DAY TO DAY CHANGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE DRIER WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP INTO HIGHER
CHANCE CATEGORY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO KHUM
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL OF
THE TERMINALS.  RAIN SHOULD END AT KHUM BY 22Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN ELEVATED
INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION.  AS THIS
INVERSION STRENGTHENS AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW CEILINGS RANGING FROM
1000 TO 2000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO FORM.  SOME FURTHER BUILD DOWN OF
THE CLOUD DECK COULD OCCUR AT KMCB...RESULTING IN CEILINGS OF AROUND
300 TO 500 FEET RIGHT AT DAYBREAK AROUND 11-13Z.  BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z.  THERE COULD
BE SOME SUMMER TIME PULSE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AFTER 18Z...AS
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.  GIVEN THE TIME FRAME AND LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN...NO MENTION HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 14 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID WEEKEND
WILL BREAK DOWN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LEAD TO WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
OVER THE AREA. THUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX SUNDAY THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN A FOOT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  69  86 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  70  88  71  87 /  20  50  20  40
ASD  69  86  71  86 /  20  40  20  30
MSY  74  86  74  86 /  20  40  20  30
GPT  74  85  74  85 /  30  40  20  30
PQL  70  85  70  85 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD


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