Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 282105
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN US.
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES IN THIS WEAKNESS AND MOVE OVER THE REGION. WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.

THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THAT MEANS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...I AM CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AND
EVEN THOSE DAYS POPS ARE GENERALLY 40 PERCENT OR LESS. IN TERMS
OF THE BIGGER PICTURE AND TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS...A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS MEANS ERIKA OR REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
GO UP OVER WESTERN FLORIDA/EASTERN GULF PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES EXPECTED. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TS ERIKA. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR
COASTAL WATERS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWELL TO AFFECT WAVE HEIGHTS
BY EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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