Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 241707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period. Only
exception might be very patchy fog development at the typical
problem sites, namely KMCB, toward tomorrow morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/


Strong, shallow low level inversion once again this morning with
a temperature of 50F near the surface and a temperature of 67F at
the top of the inversion at 650 feet. As was the case yesterday
morning, temperatures will rise quickly as boundary layer
processes mix out the inversion. For example, yesterday`s low at
Slidell of 40F was at 7am and by 9am the temperature was 55F and
66F by 10 am. Yesterday`s models were indicating fog this morning
and while a few sites, such as Gonzales, have reported a slight
reduction in visibility, most areas remain fog free. The large
mitigating factor for fog development this morning are the
cirrocumulus clouds (over the office) and high level moisture
streaming over the area. While there is high level moisture, the
precipitable water value remains well below normal at 0.46 inches.
Overall, the atmosphere remains stable. Winds are light from the
north below 3500 feet and then turn to a primarily west-northwest
direction from 12500 feet through the remainder of the
troposphere. A peak wind speed of 39 knots was sampled at 48000
feet above the ground.

12z balloon info: No issues with the flight this morning that
ascended for 105 minutes to a height of 20.3 miles above the
ground bursting near Ansley 23 miles downrange from the office.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

Once again a quiet morning across the forecast area with a few
clouds in the sky as an upper level disturbance moves through the
area. We do not expect any rainfall with this as moisture is very
limited. Expect the daytime highs today and early this week to
reach back into the lower 80s as the cool airmass over the region
has moderated a bit. No major changes in the forecast as the next
feature to impact the forecast region still looks like a weak
front moving across the region later on this week. The jury is
still out on if this front even makes an impact as it struggles to
reach our area. The biggest thing it will do is pull moisture
back into the region out ahead of it and that will cause an
increase in clouds and an outside shot for a shower on Wednesday
and Thursday. Beyond Thursday, expect quiet weather with high
pressure building in through the rest of the period with
temperatures still remaining in the lower 80s and overnight lows
in the 50s and 60s. 13/MH

Very patchy fog could impact a few of the typical
problem sites but overall VFR conditions should be the rule of the
day. /CAB/

For the next 48 hrs conditions should be rather benign
over the coastal waters. Light easterly winds will dominate the
region with seas around 2-4 ft generally. Heading into the middle of
the week high pressure will be reinforced across the Mid Atlantic
and northeastern CONUS and this will tighten the pressure gradient
across the Gulf leading to moderate easterly winds for the 2nd half
of the work week. Will continue to advertise winds of 15-20 kts with
seas up to 6 ft for late Wed and through Thu. /CAB/

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  81  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  61  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  57  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  80  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0



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