Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 211216

716 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

VFR conditions will persist across the region as cool and dry high
pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the upper
Great Lakes. Only potential issue could be river fog tonight at
the usual suspects (SUS/CPS), but will let later shifts evalute this
threat before including in forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies should continue today through
tonight as high pressure dominates the weather over the Central





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