Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 122146
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2016

Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected tonight as a strong
1040-1045 mb surface high over the northern Plains builds
southeastward into MO and IL. The low level clouds across parts of
eastern MO and southwest IL will advect southeast of the area
early this evening, with just some mid-high level clouds spreading
back into the area later tonight. Strong and gusty northwesterly
surface winds this evening should weaken later tonight as the
surface pressure gradient gradually relaxes. With little cloud
cover for much of the night, diminishing winds, and very low
surface dewpoints minimum temperatures in the single digits are
expected for most of the area. Some light snow cover across parts
of northeast MO and west central IL will aid in the radiational
cooling. Wind chills will get bitterly cold late tonight down to
around 10 below zero across northeast MO and west central IL.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2016

Warm air advection ahead of an approaching strong shortwave over
the northern Plains will lead to a band of snow developing from
around IRK southeast to near STL Saturday evening. The low levels
will be initially dry Saturday afternoon into the evening, but
should began to moisten as the forcing increases. The band of snow
will shift eastward into west central IL late Saturday night with
lighter snow breaking out across much of the rest of our forecast
area as a southwesterly low level jet brings increasing low level
moisture into the area as well as increasing low level warm air
advection. More widespread snow can be expected Sunday morning as
the shortwave, vort max moves into southeast IA by 18Z Sunday.
Should see the snow tapering off across northeast and central MO
Sunday afternoon as the shortwave begins to shift east of the
area. Could not rule out a little sleet or even rain across parts
of central and southeast MO Sunday afternoon as the surface layer
warms up as the precipitation tapers off. Most of the accumulating
snow should shift east of the entire forecast area by Sunday
evening. Preliminary snowfall totals for Saturday night through
Sunday night range from less than 1 inch in central MO to around 2
inches in much of the St Louis metro area to 2 to 3 inches across
west central and southwest IL into a small portion of southeast
MO. It now appears that most of the precipitation, caused by a
secondary shortwave and an associated surface low which will pass
south of the region, will stay south of our forecast area on
Monday. Temperatures will also be much warmer on Monday. The ECMWF
model brings a northwest flow shortwave and associated surface
low southeastward through our area late Monday night and Tuesday
leading to another shot of rain or snow. The GFS is further
northeast with the track of this system, bringing it through IA
and northern IL and keeping most of the precipitation northeast
of our forecast area. Due to the uncertainty of the track, for
now will just include chance pops on Tuesday across northeast and
east central MO and west central and southwest IL for rain or
snow. It is still looking unseasonably warm by Thursday as an
upper level ridge moves into the area along with increasing south
or southwesterly low level winds.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2016

Dealing with last shortwave of this system, mvfr cigs to slide
south through taf sites early this afternoon. Then skies to
scatter out. Otherwise, north winds to pickup on back side of
shortwave with gusts to near 25kts at times. Winds then diminish
after 00z Saturday. Will begin to see mid clouds on the increase
by mid morning on Saturday ahead of next system with winds
beginning to veer to the northeast.

Specifics for KSTL:
Dealing with last shortwave of this system, mvfr cigs to slide
south through metro area early this afternoon. Then skies to
scatter out by 22z Friday. Otherwise, north winds to pickup on
back side of shortwave with gusts to near 25kts at times. Winds
then diminish after 00z Saturday. Will begin to see mid clouds on
the increase by 16z Saturday ahead of next system with winds
beginning to veer to the northeast.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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