Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 300715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
315 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016


High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic will move offshore
tonight. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night.
High pressure returns late in the week and the weekend.



Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northern NY
wedging down the eastern seaboard. No problems expected today
weatherwise...possibly isolated thunderstorms will develop over
the Highlands late this afternoon. Highs will reach around 90 most



High pressure will continue to control the weather of the Mid
Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Patchy fog will be possible west
of I-95 tonight but no problems foreseen. Wednesday afternoon
could again see isolated thunderstorms over the mountains.

Lows tonight 65-70. Highs Wednesday again 90.

Change comes to the area Wednesday night to usher out
meteorological summer/welcome met autumn as a cold front slides
down from the northwest. Models are showing a line of moisture
moving through the CWA overnight but severe parameters are
minimal. My confidence level on POPs in summer convection several
periods out is that it`s risky to go higher than chance...
especially given how dry we`ve been lately.



Cold front will likely be directly overhead early Thursday morning
and will continue pushing southeastward through the day. Thus may
see a period of morning showers/rumble of thunder associated with
frontal passage. Upper trough and associated energy does lag behind
through the day, so some pop-up showers and perhaps a storm remain
possible into the afternoon hours. Highs mainly in the 80s.

Upper trough persists overhead into Friday with large ridge of
surface high pressure building in from the northwest. This should
lead to largely dry and pleasant weather from Friday and through the
Labor Day Weekend. Will continue to monitor tropical activity in the
Gulf of Mexico for this time period, but the upper trough overhead
and surface high building into the region are currently expected to
suppress any system to the south and east.

The upper trough will give way to a building upper ridge again
heading into next week.

Highs generally 70s/80s Friday through Sunday, warming back into the
80s area-wide for the beginning of next week. Lows pleasant in the



VFR conditions today. Patchy fog may develop tonight at CHO/MRB.
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night as a cold front
moves through the Mid Atlantic.

Predominantly VFR expected Thursday through Saturday. Only
restrictions would come in some patchy fog at night/early morning
and any scattered showers/thunderstorms Thursday.



High presure over New England is causing northerly winds to
channel down the Bay but below SCA levels. A cold front will push
through the waters Wednesday night which may cause thunderstorms
to develop.

Cold frontal system will cross the waters Thursday morning with
potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Small Craft
Advisory may be needed Thursday afternoon and through Friday with
increasing northerly winds behind front.



Water levels will run around a half foot above normal through
Wednesday night. Tidal flooding is not currently expected, but water
levels are forecast to reach Action Stage at Annapolis and
Washington DC/Alexandria during the early morning high tide cycles.



Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 29)

Site          Rank                    Average Temperature

DC   3   80.6
Balt          14*  77.3
IAD            3                            77.4

* tied with 1937, 1944, 1994, and 2006




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