Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 312304 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
604 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
Some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed across
portions of central and NRN AR late this afternoon in response to
a cold front starting to drop south into the state. Expect
coverage of this activity to decrease some after sunset...though
chances for precip will remain in the forecast through much of
Thu. Some patchy fog could also be seen around sunrise...along
with MVFR or lower conditions possible with the precip. The drier
air will filter in behind this front late in this TAF
period...with chances for precip decreasing.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 235 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Well, it`s not much, but it`s a start. Cold front currently over
far northwest-northern Arkansas will continue to sink into the
region over the next 24 hours. Scattered showers/storms will be
possible behind the boundary, as an upper level system moves
through and interacts with it. Greatest coverage will be in the
northwest and west.
Rain chances will decrease Thursday night, as the front moves
south of Arkansas and gets absorbed in the circulation of Tropical
Surge of cooler air will really be felt on Thursday and Friday, as
highs will mostly be in the 80s on Thursday and lows could fall
into the 50s in the northwest and 60s elsewhere Thursday Night.
Friday highs will only be in the 70s to mid 80s as autumn decides
to briefly taunt us before things warm up by late in the weekend.
LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Tuesday
Friday night will be relatively cool...with lows dipping into the
low to mid 50s up north and the low 60s elsewhere as high pressure
builds into the region in the wake of a cold front that moved
through on Thursday. If you believe some guidance...places near
Harrison may even drop into the 40s Friday night...but that is by
far the cold outlier so did not go that low in the forecast.
Below normal temperatures will continue on Saturday before a warmup
occurs on Sunday and into the first half of next week. But by late
Sunday return flow will begin to set back up across the region as
high pressure builds overhead/east of Arkansas Sunday evening into
next week. Temperatures will respond accordingly...with highs going
from the low to mid 50s on Saturday...back to the upper 80s to low
90s Sunday onward. Rain chances will remain low overall...with some
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms returning to the
forecast each afternoon from Monday onward as moisture levels
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the
period. Minimum humidities in most areas are likely to remain
above 50 percent.