Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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771
FXUS64 KLZK 281909
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
209 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.Short Term...Tonight through Friday
Latest surface analysis places a cold front across the central part
of Arkansas with the boundary slowly moving to the south. Front has
been fairly inconspicuous with its passage marked simply by a wind
shift to the northwest. Boundary is expected to clear the remainder
of the state and move into northern Louisiana early this evening.

In its wake, upper level high pressure will build into the nations
mid section. Meanwhile, a strong upper low pressure system will cut
off from the prevailing flow over the Ohio valley and basically
remain quasi-stationary through the remainder of the period.

As system spins to our east/northeast, a northwest flow aloft is
expected with temperatures very close to where they are supposed to
be for late September. Moisture rotating around this feature will
bring occasional clouds to the northeast section of the forecast
area but no precipitation is expected here, or anywhere else for
that matter through the period
&&

.Long Term...Friday Night through Wednesday
Northwest upper flow will gradually become more zonal through the
weekend, as the Great Lakes region cutoff low moves into the Saint
Lawrence Valley, and riding builds just east of the Rockies. This
will push surface high pressure eastward, with winds gradually
turning back around to the southeast and east by late Sunday. In
turn, temperatures will warm back into the 80s in much of the area.

This trend will continue into mid-week. By then, the NOAM longwave
pattern will modify, and ridging will develop over the eastern
CONUS, with troughing in the west. This will bring more significant
moisture into the region and the surface and aloft, and bring about
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly just beyond
the end of the period.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         57  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       49  71  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    55  75  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  57  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     58  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      53  74  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  51  72  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        52  74  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     56  75  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   53  74  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         54  74  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      54  75  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...56 / Long Term...57



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