Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211916
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
216 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Deepening trough evident on WV satellite imagery making its way
east of the Rockies this afternoon. Near the base of the trough
across southern New Mexico is the main disturbance set to kick out
to the northeast and help strong to severe thunderstorms initiate
along a front across Oklahoma later today. Over time, this trough
will strengthen and continue to provide upper level support for
storm development and maintenance through the overnight hours.

While storms will initially be isolated in nature, expect storm
mode to transition to linear west of the Arkansas/Oklahoma border.
As this line of storms makes its way into/through the state,
damaging winds will be the primary threat as there could be a few
bowing segments within the line itself. Also, given the QLCS
appearance of the line from most high resolution guidance
products, an isolated tornado or two would be the secondary threat
with these storms.

Hopefully, the storms set to move across the state
tonight will end up being more beneficial than harmful by
providing much needed rainfall to most areas rather than numerous
instances of severe weather. Remember, severe weather can happen
year round in Arkansas and we are entering our secondary severe
weather season.

Expect most of the activity to be out of the forecast area by Sunday
evening, with a few lingering showers across the east through Monday
morning possibly. Overall, heavy rainfall doesn`t appear to be a
major threat but locally heavy rain will remain possible mainly
across western areas.

Otherwise, cool and dry air will be in place through Monday with
Min RH values bottoming out in the 30th percentile Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

Colder air will move into the region Monday night as northwest flow
aloft sets up. There will be a secondary surge on Tuesday, as a
cutoff low develops in the vicinity of the Great Lakes Region. Most
areas will stay in the 60s on Tuesday afternoon, with widespread 30s
and 40s Tuesday night.

Temperatures will moderate during the week, as the upper flow
flattens and allows surface high pressure to move through the
region. Winds will gain a southerly component by Thursday, which
will allow highs in the 70s again. However, this will be short-
lived, as another in a series of cutoff lows drops into the high
plains from Canada and allow for a more significant push of cold air
around the end of the long term period.

At the same time, low pressure developing out in the southern plains
will drag a cold front into the region, with showers and
thunderstorms possible. Behind this front, we may be talking only
highs in the 50s by next Saturday. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  67  49  73 / 100  70  20  10
Camden AR         69  69  47  75 /  80  80  20  10
Harrison AR       56  61  45  70 / 100  60  10  10
Hot Springs AR    64  68  50  74 / 100  70  10  10
Little Rock   AR  67  69  51  74 /  90  80  20  10
Monticello AR     68  71  52  72 /  60  90  30  10
Mount Ida AR      63  68  45  74 / 100  70  10  10
Mountain Home AR  59  62  46  70 / 100  70  10  10
Newport AR        66  69  51  73 /  90  90  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  71  50  73 /  70  90  20  10
Russellville AR   63  66  47  73 / 100  70  10  10
Searcy AR         66  69  50  72 /  90  80  20  10
Stuttgart AR      68  69  51  73 /  70  90  30  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...67 / Long Term...57



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