Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 061811
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
111 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO NEARLY VFR EVERYWHERE WHILE SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP TO THE WEST OF THE I30
CORRIDOR AND ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE MOST
PART DODGING THE FA TAF SITES. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH IN THERE FOR
NOW...WITH CONVECTION TAPERING OFF CLOSER TO SUNSET. LATER IN THE
PERIOD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG CLOSER TO NW ARKANSAS AND ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF KHRO. ALTHOUGH
MODELS STALL THE BOUNDARY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIP
FURTHER EAST AFFECTING KHRO/KBPK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AR...WHILE VFR OVER NORTHERN AND SE AR. ISOLATED IFR FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL AR. THROUGH THE MORNING...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND LIFT AND BECOME VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON...THEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AND ONLY USED VCSH AND
VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SE TO SW AT 3 TO 8 MPH
THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME ELEVATED FROM THE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET SO FAR OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA REMAINING
POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND TROUGH MUCH OF WED...WITH PORTIONS OF THE STATE SEEING
INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL TO
THE NW OF THE STATE ON TUE AND WED. THE AREAS WITH BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES...THOUGH ONLY CHANCE
POPS ARE MENTIONED AS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND ENERGY WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE CWA. AREAS TO THE NW WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE COMING DAYS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THESE CIRCUMSTANCES...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR A FFA
AS MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE OUTSIDE THE CWA. NOW...IF THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SFC FRONT
CHANGE...AND THE SYSTEMS DROP FURTHER SE...WILL NEED TO REVISIT THE
FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. EVEN SO...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
OUTSIDE THE NWRN COUNTIES...KEEP POPS LOW DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD...BUT THESE AREAS COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA.

BY THU...DECREASE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS THE STALLED FRONT TO
THE NW LIFTS BACK NORTH...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND
FROM THE SERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EXPANDING RIDGE TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH A DRY AND WARM WEATHER
PATTERN FORECAST. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S...PUTTING A CAP ON MUCH OF THE CHANCE
OF ANY CONVECTION. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE SEEN...BUT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START AT NORMAL VALUES THEN WARM TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  74  90  73 /  20  20  30  30
CAMDEN AR         91  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  71  84  70 /  20  20  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  74  90  74 /  20  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  74  91  75 /  20  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     90  74  92  75 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  73  88  74 /  20  10  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  73  87  72 /  20  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        88  73  90  73 /  20  20  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     90  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  89  73 /  20  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         89  73  90  73 /  20  10  30  20
STUTTGART AR      89  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61




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