Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY PATCHY MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. SPOTTY IFR MAY BE SEEN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE
SOME AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER AR WILL BE POSSIBLE. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64













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