Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270946
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
446 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of severe
storms and flooding and flash flooding potential with heavy rain.
Will issued the flash flood watch this morning for late Friday and
over the weekend.

Surface high pressure was building into AR this morning, and clear
the clouds and cooling temperatures. Some fog will form this early
morning as radiational cooling sets up over the clearing areas.
Otherwise, temperatures were in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Surface high pressure will be over the region today and much of
Friday, and bring dry and mostly sunny conditions. Highs will be from
the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s today, a bit warmer on Friday
with the 70s and some 80s over the south. Later Friday, as a warm
front moves north, and upper shortwave energy moves through the
region, clouds will increase and a chance of convection is back in
the forecast, especially over northern to parts of central AR.
Moisture levels do increase with the south wind flow and this will
lead into the weekend with the heavy rain threat and possible
flooding and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

An area of low pressure will be over the Rockies to begin the
long term period with southwest flow over Arkansas. This low will
move into the Texas Panhandle Saturday night and then into
southern Kansas Sunday morning. This will move into Iowa Monday
morning and through the Great Lakes Tuesday. Northwest flow
returns to Arkansas Monday night and then becomes zonal Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

On Saturday a front will be stalled near north Arkansas. This front
will not move much through Saturday. Heavy rain is possible across
mainly the northwest half of the area until this front moves through
the state. It will move east as a cold front once the upper low
moves into the area and pushes it east. Rainfall totals Friday
through Sunday are expected to be 4 to 6 inches over the northwest
half of the CWA with locally higher amounts. Southeast Arkansas
should only see around 2 inches of rainfall Friday through Sunday
night. Severe thunderstorms are also likely Friday and Saturday...
and possibly Sunday. The main threats will be damaging winds and
large hail...and isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out. The cold
front will actually move through the state Sunday morning and gusty
northwest winds will be behind the front as high pressure moves into
the area.

A weak short wave will move through north Arkansas Tuesday and bring
a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to north central and
northeast sections. The next cold front arrives on Wednesday and
will bring better chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Near to below normal temperatures are
expected through the period. The exception will be Saturday with
above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  54  78  66 /  10  20  40  80
Camden AR         76  58  82  71 /  10  10  20  40
Harrison AR       67  54  75  61 /  10  40  40  80
Hot Springs AR    73  57  78  69 /  10  10  30  60
Little Rock   AR  72  56  79  69 /  10  10  30  70
Monticello AR     75  59  84  71 /  10  10  20  30
Mount Ida AR      72  57  78  69 /  10  20  40  70
Mountain Home AR  69  54  77  63 /  10  40  40  80
Newport AR        70  56  78  68 /  10  20  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     74  57  81  70 /  10  10  30  40
Russellville AR   72  55  77  66 /  10  20  40  70
Searcy AR         71  54  78  67 /  10  20  40  70
Stuttgart AR      73  57  80  70 /  10  10  30  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening FOR
Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-
Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-
Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-
Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51


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