Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261759 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016


Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.



Main chances for TSRA through this evening will be at the northern
terminals as they lie beneath an axis of convection stretching
from south Central Oklahoma up into Southeast Missouri this
morning. Have TEMPO groups for -TSRA along with MVFR cielings at
KPBK and KHRO through late this afternoon. Elsewhere convection
should be scattered enough this afternoon to only include VCTS at
this time. Expect some nocturnal convection well after midnight,
and more widespread thunderstorm activity on Wednesday, associated
with a disturbance moving north from the gulf coast. Winds will be
light overall...less than 8 kt...with generally an east to
southeast direction expected through the period.




Issued a morning update here to put out a heat advisory for today.
Heat index values have already topped 100 degrees in several places
across the southeast half of the state this morning. While there
will be more moisture working into Arkansas from the southeast
today, I believe the southeast half of the forecast area should
hit heat advisory criteria...heat index values of 105
degree...fairly easy this afternoon to go ahead and issue one.

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 334 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/


Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and a temperature forecast.

The upper low pressure trough is now over the region with upper
high pressure ridging to the west and east. This pattern has
helped keep convection in the forecast and will last for much of
the week. The weak front has sagged to northern AR and has been
the focus for convection over the state. Current light convection
over western and northeastern AR continues to wind down. Moisture
levels remain high with surface dewpoint temperatures in the lower
to mid 70s, an a 00z KLzk sounding having a precip water value
over 2 inches.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Forecast will start with a lower chance of rain this morning, than
increasing this afternoon helped by afternoon heating and possible
short wave energy moving through the region. This pattern will
hold also for Wednesday. The front washes out over AR while
additional upper energy moves through the region. Rain chances
appear to be a bit higher on Wednesday. Due to high moisture
levels and slow movement of any storms, heavy rain will be
possible with some localized flash flooding if storms slow. The
overall risk of strong to severe storms remains isolated and low.
Temperatures will remain around normal values to a bit above in
areas that see more sun, while a bit lower in areas that see more
clouds and rain.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

The long term period will begin with high pressure aloft over the
Four Corners area and Bermuda area. For much of the period there
will be a weak upper level trough over the midwest and plains. With
Arkansas being between the two highs, and a weak stationary front
near north Arkansas, expect more unsettled weather with this pattern
and better rain chances for the period. This should lead to MCSs
moving through the state. The models show the upper ridge building
over the mid south Sunday and Monday. This would put the storm track
slightly north of Arkansas for late in the weekend into next week...
resulting in lower rain chances and warmer temperatures.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for late week and into the
weekend. Without being directly beneath either ridge, temperatures
will be closer to normal values, or even cooler, with more cloud
cover. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the mid and upper
80s...then warmer for the weekend and Monday. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 70s.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-



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