Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271603
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1103 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Data from local radars indicate an area of moderate to heavy
rainfall across extreme eastern sections of the forecast
area...with scattered...light activity across the remainder.
An additional area of moderate to heavy rainfall is approaching
southwest sections from northeast Texas.

Near term forecasts have been adjusted slightly to account for
precipitation trends.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the state this morning,
with conditions becoming MVFR or lower areawide. Precipitation
will continue through the day and into the night tonight.
Conditions will vary, but should remain restricted due to low
ceilings and precipitation/storms. Tafs already out.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
Same song next verse. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the northeast this morning...as one wave moves
northeast of the area. More showers/storms will spread into the
region during the day today...as another wave moves up from Texas.

Showers/thunderstorms will continue through Friday. Precip chances
will diminish on Saturday as the primary upper level system moves
into the Ohio valley.

Similar to the last two days, while widespread severe weather is
not expected, there could be an isolated strong or severe
thunderstorm capable of producing marginally severe hail and
damaging winds. Also, stronger storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding issues. I`d
be a little more concerned if a large-scale forcing mechanism was
closer to the area.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
An upper shortwave trough will be lifting NE into the NRN Great
Lakes region at the start of the long term period...with weakening
west to SW flow aloft over the SRN Plains/SRN MS River Valley
region. Moisture levels will remain high as no fronts will have
moved south far enough to usher in any drier more stable air into
the region. However...moisture and potential instability levels
will be high enough that chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the
forecast from late this weekend into early next week. Coverage of
convective activity will likely be more isolated to somewhat
scattered...and generally diurnally driven in nature given the
synoptic scale setup. This could change though with any potential
mesoscale features that may present themselves during this period.
However...this time period is a bit too far out to discuss specific
mesoscale features that could generate more organized convective
activity.

By the middle of next week...a cold front will be dropping south
towards the state...and may push far enough south to provide a
better forcing mechanism for more organized convective activity. As
a result...chances for precip do increase late in the forecast. This
front may even move far enough south that some drier more stable
air could filter into the state by late next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
No major fire weather issues are expected during the next seven
days. Humidity will remain high, with rain chances expected each
day.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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