Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 032348 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT FEW-SCT060 TO DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR OCCURRENCE...AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE...IS TOO
LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY 00Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SINGLE CELL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED...MAINLY DUE TO LARGE CINH REMAINING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTUNUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL WAVES...PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW... ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TYPE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE
MESOSCALE SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

55

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS HINTING THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING EVEN MORE
SCARCE AND LIKELY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING /LESS HOT/ AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  73  95  73 /  10   0  20  40
CAMDEN AR         99  73  98  74 /  10   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       94  71  91  69 /  10   0  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    99  72  97  75 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  73  98  74 /  10   0  10  30
MONTICELLO AR     99  72  98  74 /  10   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      99  72  97  74 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  72  92  69 /  10   0  30  50
NEWPORT AR        96  73  95  73 /  10   0  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     99  73  98  75 /  10   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  95  73 /  10   0  20  30
SEARCY AR         97  73  97  73 /  10   0  10  40
STUTTGART AR      98  73  97  74 /  10   0  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64


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