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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280816
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
416 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...The center of a large high pressure system will be
transitioning offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states causing a veering
of the low level winds across east Central Florida. This will take
place in the presence of remnant moisture orphaned by a weak and
eroding frontal trough. The onshore pattern will support an embedded
sea breeze which should be productive bringing early opportunity for
showers and storms to coastal locations with a favored inland skew
by the afternoon. Vestiges of the nearly decayed frontal trough may
further assist convective focus, thus opportunity exists for several
places to receive several inches of rain in the high PWAT
atmosphere. PoPs will be 40-50 percent near the immediate coast and
up to 60 percent well inland. Max Temps in the U80s/L90s with Min
Temps in the M/U70s due to maritime influences.

THU-FRI...Weak mid level anticyclone over northern Bahamas drifts
slowly west toward southern peninsula. Precipitable waters values
below 2.0 inches Thu rises a few tenths of an inch Fri as narrow
swath of lower PW remains to the south. Rather light surface
pressure gradient across region Thu as ridge axis remains far to
the north, allowing for stronger/earlier Atlantic sea breeze
formation/motion. Late morning/early afternoon scattered storms
for coastal counties, increasing to 50/60 POPs inland during
afternoon. Increased moisture Fri with active Atlantic/Gulf sea
breezes suggests high storm coverage (50-60 percent) for most of
CWA, with a little lower chances along lower Treasure Coast where
convergence should penetrate inland earlier. Should be enough SW/W
steering flow both afternoons to allow scattered late day/evening
convection to work back toward the east coast, mainly
Volusia/Brevard Counties. Max/Min temps near normal to a few
degrees above.

SAT-TUE...Above normal, deep-layer moisture continues to pool
across region, with PW values 2.0-2.2 inches. Mid level
anticyclone transitions across southern peninsula then remains
over far eastern Gulf. Low level ridge axis, albeit weak, becomes
established across south-central peninsula over the weekend,
possibly meandering a little northward Mon/Tue. With light flow
regime, but favoring onshore component, within high moisture
environment, expect diurally active sea breeze convection through
the period. Highest coverage generally inland (50-60 percent),
but scattered convection expected across coastal counties as well
(30-50 percent, highest north half). Over the weekend, steering
flow expected to be light easterly across the south and light
west/southwest across the north, bringing some late day convection
back toward the east coast late. By Mon/Tue, N/NE steering flow
may become a little stronger, which would allow greatest coverage
of convection to impact interior peninsula by late
afternoon/evening. Max temps near climo, with mins a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering precip from the day`s convection all but gone
and shifted out over the adjacent coastal waters. Except for passing
FEW/SCT low clouds, mostly VFR until about 15Z when VCTS will kick
in for coastal sites and TEMPO 3SM TSRA BKN025CB between 18-21Z.
Prevailing easterly flow and embedded sea breeze will push
showers/storms inland for VCTS by 19Z and TEMPO 3SM TSRA BKN025CB
between 19-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Local winds to veer to the east as sfc high pressure
slides off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Continued veering to the
southeast expected overnight. Speeds will be 5-10 knots for the
nearshore waters with seas 2 feet, but freshening up to 10 to 15
knots offshore with seas 2-3 feet. Plenty of moisture left behind
from an old frontal trough will be available for scattered showers
and thunderstorms, but with an inland propagating sea breeze during
the afternoon.

THU-FRI...Light east winds Thu, become light southerly Friday,
with enhanced sea breezes near shore each day. Seas 1-2 ft
nearshore and 2-3 ft offshore. Scattered thunderstorms, especially
nearshore mid day into the early afternoons, and possibly moving
offshore Volusia/Brevard Counties during the evenings.

SAT-SUN...Light south/southwest winds, with afternoon sea breezes
near shore. Favorable seas, 1-2 ft nearshore and 2-3 ft offshore.
Scattered thunderstorms...most likely mid day and again during the
late afternoon/early moving offshore Volusia/Brevard Counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  89  75 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  91  75  92  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  30
VRB  89  76  90  74 /  50  20  30  30
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  60  20  60  30
SFB  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  90  75  92  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  74 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Sharp
LONG TERM....Spratt