Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 051431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016


Some low clouds and stratus lingering at mid morning but expected to
diminish through 15Z. Surface high pressure over the Atlantic
pushing farther offshore today. As this occurs the low level flow
will veer from south to southwest. Morning Cape Canaveral sounding
shows a little moistening starting to occur with precipitable water
up to 1.31 inches. The moisture will increase at a faster pace
through tonight via a moist southwesterly fetch from the gulf.
Latest meso model runs continue to indicate main precip chances will
hold off until late afternoon. Temperatures will climb toward the
mid 80s this afternoon, and DAB record high is only 83 (2013) so it
may be in jeapordy. Will keep PoP distribution indicating highest
values north this afternoon and not ruling out an isolated late day
storm so will maintain the thunder mention north.


Lingering Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys will improve to VFR ~15Z. Sct
shra, esp aft 20z with isold tsra psbl north of KTIX-KMCO but
prospects too low to mention in TAFs. Shra/Tsra over Gulf will push
onshore FL west coast aft 06Z. Actvty will approach nrn interior
terminals, esp LEE, toward daybreak Tue.


No significant changes planned with late morning CWF package.
Previous...Today...High pressure off the Carolina coast will
continue to press seaward as low pressure develops along the TX gulf
coast. This will produce a southerly flow 12-15 knots over the Atlc
and intracoastal waters. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet and choppy due to
short periods of 5 seconds so conditions not ideal for small craft.
There is a chance for scattered showers and isolated storms to push
offshore late this aftn/this evening north of Sebastian Inlet.

Tonight...Low pressure deepens as it lifts NE across MS/AL which
will tighten the pressure gradient and support increasing south
winds 15-20 knots over the open Atlc with seas building to 5
feet. A Caution headline will likely be needed.





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