Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 260052
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
852 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
...Boating Conditions Will Deteriorate Tonight through Late
Overnight mins expected to be several degrees warmer versus
Tue morning lows most areas. This occurring as strong high
pressure building down the cost keeps more steady onshore
flow through the overnight hours. Also, a more extensive
cirrus deck has spread over area from gulf. Lows ranging
from low-mid 60s well inland to upper 60s near the coast...
even some lower 70s immediate Treasure Coast.
Previous Foreast Discussion Follows...
On Wednesday, local pressure gradient increases substantially,
leading to breezy to windy conditions, especially along the
coast. Atmosphere remains fairly moisture starved, though models
indicate a bit more low level moisture present beneath 850mb,
suggesting isolated sprinkles and/or light showers will move
onshore off the Atlantic. Regardless, rainfall amounts from the
showers will remain low. Given the strong onshore flow off the
Atlantic, temperatures will remain modified, low 80s across the
far interior and near 80 closer to the coast.
Wednesday Night-Saturday...High pressure extending southwest from
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard will push an onshore
wind surge into the area with gusty onshore winds through Wednesday
Night with 20-25 mph coastal winds, then abating by late Thursday.
Northeast to East Northeast wind direction will keep rain chances on
the low side; however, a mention of isolated showers mainly along
the central and south coast is warranted with low chance of any
measurable amounts. High Temperatures will be near seasonable in the
lower 80s but low temperatures will be above normal in the mid to
upper 60s, with lower 70s along the coast.
Extended...Not much change in the onshore wind pattern is shown into
next week, albeit an elongated area of high pressure setting up
along the North FL/GA waters will bring lighter onshore winds during
the weekend and into next week with presence of a rather stable
airmass associated with proximity of high pressure. Expect lows in
the Mid to upper 60s and Highs in the lower 80s. Only a minimal
chance of a coastal sprinkle is expected early next week.
.AVIATION...VFR will prevail as onshore/east-northeast flow
gradually increases over the next 24 hours.
Tonight...boating conditions will deteriorate as reinforcing high
pressure builds south from the Great Lakes. E/NE winds will
increase to 15-20 knots over the southern and offshore waters
first so a Caution headline will be needed for the first half of
the night there. As pressure gradient tightens further, have
introduced a Small Craft Advisory for winds near 20 knots
beginning late tonight for the southern and offshore Brevard
Wednesday-Thursday...Deteriorating wind and sea conditions will
spread northward Wednesday morning. Have hoisted a Small Craft
Advisory for the nearshore waters of Brevard and offshore waters
of Volusia beginning at 14Z (10am) Wednesday. Winds of 20 to 25 kt
and seas building 7 to 9 ft over the advisory area from early Wed
and into Thu. Small craft should exercise caution over the
nearshore waters of Volusia.
Late Week...A gradual improvement in wind and sea state can be
expected with high pressure north of the area weakening while
drawing progressively closer to the NE FL waters into the weekend.
Steadily increasing onshore flow off the Atlantic will mitigate
any critical fire weather concerns through late week as RH values
remain at or above 45/50% each afternoon. A period of breezy to
windy conditions will develop Wednesday and Thursday, especially
along the coast.
The St. Johns River at Astor has slipped below Action Stage and
will continue a slow decline.
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River will also
continue to fall very slowly, but is forecast to remain above
Action Stage into late week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 80 67 82 / 10 20 20 10
MCO 65 83 66 83 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 70 81 72 83 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 70 81 71 83 / 10 20 20 10
LEE 64 84 65 83 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 66 82 66 83 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 66 83 67 83 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 70 81 71 82 / 10 20 20 10
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Friday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Friday for
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.