Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 181503 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING FROM VERO BEACH AND FORT PIERCE WEST TO
THE KISSIMMEE RIVER WILL LIFT BY NOON. MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE 850 MB BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SO EXPECT SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS JUST A
LITTLE...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TO 20
PERCENT IN ORDER TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTN
WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LIGHT N/NW
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NE TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE HRRR MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE NORTH
INTERIOR. MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE S/SW.

PREVIOUS DAY 1 DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TODAY AS THE RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIMITS VERTICAL MOTION...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITS
POTENTIAL FOR CU DVLPMNT. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL LIFT
NE...ALLOWING HI PRES TO BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. AS
IT DOES...LIGHT NWRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E THRU SUNSET.

NW/NE FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL FL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES RUINING BTWN
70-80PCT. HOWEVER...THE DLVPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR COASTAL TSRA DVLPMNT. INTERIOR WILL HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY AS NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO ARND 1.6"...CHANCES WILL BE AOB 20PCT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA....WITH GO WITH 30 POPS ARND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
M/U80S...INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE L90S. MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY MODIFY WHATEVER LOW DEWPOINT AIR THAT MANAGES TO FILTER INTO
THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT VRB/FPR WILL LIFT BY 16Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS SFC HEATING WORKS ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF
MVFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFT 17Z PUSHING SOUTHWARD MAY IMPACT
SFB/MCO/LEE. LIGHT N/NW FLOW TURNING NE TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
WEAK HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC STATES WILL NUDGE ITS
WAY OFF THE ERN SEABOARD... ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS OVER THE
LCL ATLC TO VEER TO THE N/NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E BY LATE
AFTN...STEADY SPEEDS BTWN 8-10KTS. LONG PD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
EDOUARD WILL DAMPEN OVER THE LCL ATLC THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE TODAY...THEN 2-3FT AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS LIMITED TO THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  83  71 /  20  10  60  40
MCO  91  73  87  69 /  20  20  60  50
MLB  87  75  84  73 /  20  10  70  50
VRB  86  73  85  73 /  20  10  70  50
LEE  91  74  88  68 /  20  20  60  40
SFB  91  74  86  70 /  20  20  60  40
ORL  91  74  86  69 /  20  20  60  50
FPR  87  73  86  73 /  30  10  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER








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