Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 201326
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
926 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...First Significant Cold Front of the Fall Season Will Push Through
Central Florida by Tuesday Night...

Currently...The morning U/A data from Cape Canaveral along with the
early satellite Vis imagery confirms airmass drying has occurred
since late Thu. Suitable moisture for production of LL showers has
been pressed to the Srn portion of the area near the Treasure Cst
and Lake Okeechobee. The current forecast is in agreement with
mentionable showers over this area into the afternoon as additional
layer drying will preclude PoP for the majority of the area today.
The main hazard will continue to be rough surf and rip currents
along the coast today.

prev disc...

Today/Tonight...Drier air rounding the base of high pressure
centered to our north will lessen PoPs further today, with limited
low-level moisture keeping chances for light showers confined mainly
our southern zones. Not expecting any deep convection (thunder)
today as a building ridge aloft leads to significant subsidence and
drying aloft. Will carry scattered PoPs (30-40%) across the Treasure
Coast where enough 1000-850mb moisture remains to support low-topped
marine showers moving onshore in the brisk east flow. Further to the
north, measurable precipitation will be far more the exception than
the rule, so will carry PoPs of 20% or less with the mention of
isolated sprinkles. For the overnight, low-topped showers will
remain isolated, with little in the way of measurable precipitation
expected. A small chance has been drawn in along the coast south of
Cape Canaveral.

Afternoon highs will be within a few degrees of their late October
average, ranging from the low 80s along the immediate coast to the
mid 80s across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...Drier air filtering in from the northeast will limit the
coverage of onshore-moving showers to our southern terminals, namely
KVRB south. Will maintain VCSH there, otherwise, VFR expected to
prevail with SCT clouds between FL020-030. Brisk onshore (east) flow
will become gusty after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...Today/Tonight...High pressure centered to the north will
maintain a 5 to 6 mb gradient along the east coast of Florida,
leading to brisk northeast-east winds 15-20 knots. A lengthening
fetch of onshore flow will support seas 5-7 feet in the nearshore
zones and up to 8 feet in the offshore zones. No changes to the
Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The middle and upper Saint Johns River basins remain
in flood. While additional light rainfall is in the forecast through
the weekend, amounts look very light. Thus, the nearly steady or
very slight fall we`ve had in river levels the last few weeks will
continue.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60
     nm.

&&

$$

JP/SK


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