Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231305
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Deep Moisture Overspreading East Central Florida with Increasing
Shower/Storm Coverage Today...

Current-Today...Lingering moisture from a recent tropical easterly
wave will continue to push northward into the central FL peninsula
with PWATs exceeding 2 inches, almost areawide, by late in the day.
Morning KXMR sounding shows the continued moistening of the airmass
with a PWAT of 2.12 inches. Mid-level temperatures remain fairly
warm at 700/500mb (+9.5C/-6.0C). Deep high pressure ridging north of
ECFL will keep a rather deep, but light, onshore flow across the
area. 915 MHZ Cape profiler winds L/V below 3.0 Kft, but generally
light easterly above this level. Nexrad 88D shows increasing showery
precipitation with embedded thunder across our southern coastal
waters with some of this activity moving toward the WNW across the
Treasure Coast. The local HRRR model run suggests a gradual increase
in coverage north and west through the day, especially into the
interior. SCT-NMRS convection seems appropriate in the forecast and
will watch for our north coverage warning area, if the need to raise
PoPs becomes necessary. Threats continue to be locally heavy
downpours, occasional lightning, and some gusty winds.

A continuing east swell at the beaches will contribute to a moderate
risk of rip currents. High temperatures will reach around 90 for
southern areas and lower to mid 90s across the nrn interior.

Tonight...Previous...The low level tropical wave axis will move off
the FL west coast tonight with a feed of deep moisture continuing
across the southern peninsula. Lingering scattered showers/isolated
storms will continue across east central FL into the evening hours.
Low level south-southeast winds will focus some showers and low
thunderstorm chances across Okeechobee county and coastal sections
past late evening into the overnight hours. Will keep highest Pops
across Okeechobee county and the Treasure coast in the scattered
range. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Deep moisture slowly returns to all of ECFL today. Early
morning scattered convective coverage around the Treasure Coast is
forecast to increase northward and inland during the day and early
evening. MVFR/IFR conditions in/around convection. Additional tempo
groups for TAFs likely necessary as confidence grows on timing.
Mainly VFR conds outside of convection expected.

&&

.MARINE...Today...Light/variable early morning winds forecast to
gradually/slowly become more ESE/SE through the afternoon with
speeds increasing to 10-15 kts over the open Atlc. Recent easterly
tropical wave has allowed for very deep moisture to infiltrate back
into the area with resulting increase in showery/ISOLD lightning
precipitation, from the south. Movement of showers/storms toward the
NNW/NW. Seas 3-4 ft.

Tonight...Previous...SE-S flow to 10-15 knots on the east side of
the wave axis expected with a high coverage of showers and scattered
storms continuing across the water through the night time hours.
Seas around 3 ft near shore to 4 ft well offshore.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Sedlock/Glitto



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