Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251500
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT WILL SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL FL.
PROFILERS SHOW THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TO BE ABOUT 2-4KFT DEEP AS
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF
THE STATE. TEMPS HAVE COOLED ABOUT 10-15F FROM WHERE THEY WERE WED
MORNING.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT..SHORT RANGE GLOBAL AND MESO MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOW BLYR WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE N AND NE WHILE THE H85 FRONT
AND ASCD WIND SHIFT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT ANY FARTHER THAN NORTH
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. MODEL RH PROGS ALSO INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH RH
VALUES THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...PORTENDING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OUT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE. DON`T SEE MANY (IF ANY)
AREAS GETTING OUT OF THE 60S...MAYBE NEAR 70F ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR BKN060-120. MVFR CIGS NR BKN-OVC020 FROM
KOBE-KVRB SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT S/E THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

..MARINE...NW-NRLY FLOW 10-15KT NEAR SHORE AND 15-20KT WELL OFFSHORE
WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLAN TO
KEEP CAUTIONARY STATEMENT UP UNTIL TO 4 PM PACKAGE. NO CHANGES.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014/

FRIDAY...LOW LVL FRONTAL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS EARLY FRIDAY
WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS H9 FLOW VEERS TO ESE WITH SW FLOW
AT H8. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST AND
BREVARD COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH
AND UPPER 70S SRN SECTIONS.

SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE OUTER BANKS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AS MID LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. LOW LVL E/ESE FLOW AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO START THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE AND MID LVL H5
RIDGE STILL OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND
80 OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN SATURDAY WITH DRY AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MBS. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BUT WILL KEEP LOW DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES BELOW
MENTIONABLE RANGE FOR NOW. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE MID LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A IMPULSE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AGAIN UPPER 70S COASTAL TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR. DEEPER MOISTURE
STARTS TO MAKES IT WAY TOWARD N FL BUT OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL HOLD ON TO A DRY FORECAST.

TUE-THU...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARD CENTRAL FL ON TUE
BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MID WEEK WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A FRONTAL WAVE/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST. APPEARS
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF E CENTRAL FL INTO LATE
WEEK AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BE WARM WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MID WEEK AND THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTY AIRPORTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CONDITIONS
OKEECHOBEE INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...MODERATE TO FRESH...15 TO 20 KNOTS...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHES TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE MORNING. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY WILL BECOME SE/S
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS
MAINLY 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE BY
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY AS SE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORDS YESTERDAY (DEC 24TH):

ORLANDO RECORD HIGH OF 85 BREAKS OLD RECORD OF 84 IN 1970.
MELBOURNE RECORD HIGH OF 85 TIES OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1978.
VERO BEACH RECORD HIGH OF 87 BREAKS OLD RECORD OF 84 SET IN 2002.
VERO BEACH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 72 BREAKS OLD RECORD OF 71 IN 1987.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  52  73  62 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  69  52  75  62 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  69  59  76  68 /  10   0  20  20
VRB  71  61  77  66 /  10   0  20  20
LEE  66  48  73  60 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  67  52  74  62 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  67  53  74  62 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  72  61  77  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




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