Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 011400
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONGOING ACTIVITY STREAMING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH STRUNG OUT MID LEVEL TROUGH
HAS LEFT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CONTINUING INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN.

MORNING SOUNDING SHOW PWATS STILL A RESPECTABLE 2" ACROSS MOST OF
THE PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS S FLORIDA WHERE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS NOSED IN AND FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA FROM THE TREASURE
COAST NORTHWARDS REMAINS IN FAIRLY STOUT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE CAPE 915MHZ PROFILERS SHOWING 15-20KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND 20-30KT WINDS IN THE 3-6KFT LAYER. MID LEVEL TEMPS RANGE
FROM NEARLY -8C ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO -4C IN N
FLORIDA.

LOWER LEVEL QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF HELPING TO
FOCUS THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE INTO THE NATURE COAST AND N
FLORIDA. THIS PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

THE QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE CAN LOSE AND
HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING WE CAN SEE. THINK THE OTHERWISE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL OVERCOME SOME OF THIS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO
EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON FOR ACTIVITY TO PICK UP SUBSTATIONALLY.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST FLORIDA NEAR
THE BOUNDARY KICKING OFF A FEW OUTFLOWS THAT MOVE EASTWARDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND A EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AT 60-80%...THOUGH WILL
WORD FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS.

GIVEN THE ROBUST STORM MOTION AT AROUND 20KTS...ANY ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS FL080-120. ALSO SEEING PATCHY -RA IN SPOTS...MAINLY VCNTY
KOBE AND TREASURE COAST.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A LITTLE LATER TODAY DUE TO
CLOUDS...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE NMRS SHRA DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH
SCT TSRA MOVING QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE. GUSTS TO 30-40KTS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHRA WILL LINGER
INTO LATE EVENING...POSSIBLY THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH
EXCEPTION OF TREASURE COAST WHERE LIGHT S/SE COMPONENT WILL EXIST.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL AND RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO S FLORIDA KEEPING WINDS SSW 15-20KTS OVER MOST OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS UP FOR WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF THE INLET CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH HAVE BACKED A
LITTLE MORE S/SE WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING 10-
15KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND BUILDING TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY 5
FT (WIND DRIVEN) WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF QUICK MOVING OFFSHORE SHOWERS/STORMS.
OFFSHORE MOVING MORE LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/LASCODY



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