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000
FXUS62 KMLB 290839
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS
RUNNING THE BREADTH OF THE EAST COAST STATES FROM NY/NEW ENGLAND SWD
INTO NORTH FL. DEVELOPING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE STARTING
TO PUSH MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF FL WHILE
NORTH TO NW DRAINAGE FLOW PREVAILS OVER LAND. THIS IS GIVING RISE TO
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE ATTM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
NE OVER SOME LAND STATIONS ON THE CAPE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...CAUSING THE USUAL DISPARITY IN CURRENT TEMPS.
MOST AREAS ARE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME U30S ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND RISING OVER THE CAPE AND BREVARD CO BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH 60S FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SWD. THE TREASURE COAST HAS
A NEARLY 15F TEMP SPREAD OVER AN AREA AS SMALL AS 2-3 MILES.

TODAY/TONIGHT....THE ERN CONUS RIDGE GETS SHUNTED E-SE AND SQUEEZED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WHICH WINDS UP
CAUSING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO PINCH OFF AND DROP SWD OVER
FL BY TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE WINDS VEERING QUICKLY TO NE AND THEN
EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON...TO CALM OR
NEARLY SO BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS MILD MARINE AIR
PUSHES INLAND BEHIND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DIFFUSE COASTAL BOUNDARY (NO
SIGN OF IT ON LOCAL EAST COAST RADARS YET). MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
70F MOST AREAS...U60S ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD OWING TO
THE COOLER SHELF WATER TEMPS THERE.

WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTTY...SHALLOW GROUND MIST FORM
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE BLYR DECOUPLES AND WINDS GO LIGHT
TO CALM POST-SUNSET. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SPOTS WHERE
"FIELD FOG" TYPICALLY FORMS AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING...
SHOULD IT FORM. COOL AGAIN WITH MINS IN THE 45-50F RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS.

FRI...TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI AFT AND EARLY EVE. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND WITH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT WIND SURGE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
TO LOW 70S FARTHER SOUTH. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
DRIER/COOLER AIR FRI NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AND ALONG VOLUSIA COAST.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
QUICKLY VEER WINDS BACK ONSHORE SAT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
FAIRLY SHALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DEVELOP.
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR ISO
COASTAL SHOWERS SUN AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE
SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ONSHORE TUE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DEVELOPS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE AND ACROSS N FL WED. DUE TO FEWER RUN TO
RUN CHANGES WITH THIS MODEL WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO WED. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. PREVAILING CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DAB-SUA CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z...AND START TO ERODE AS THE
H85 RIDGE AXIS DROPS OVHD AND SFC-H85 FLOW COLLAPSES.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS HAD DROPPED TO A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT AS OF
3AM...WITH SEAS 3-5FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS RIDGE DROPS OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
4AM SCA EXPIRATION LOOKS GOOD...WILL RUN WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT TOO WILL LIKELY DROP OFF BY 10 AM.

FRI-MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS FRI WITH WEST WINDS
BECOMING N/NW AND INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE FRI AFT INTO FRI NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AS THE
VEER TO THE E/NE SAT AND THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE S/SE SUN. SEAS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON LEADING TO
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS N/NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF FAR WRN VOLUSIA/SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND
NW OSCEOLA COS. NO WIND CONCERNS. AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS BECOMING EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH