Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 310836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. A VERY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS
(AROUND 2.25") SHIFTING ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENT FL WHICH
INCLUDES OUT NORTHERN COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH BUT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THERE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST EARLY
THIS AFTN. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND
NORTH SECTIONS THIS AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60-70 PERCENT) ARE
DRAWN. THE LOWEST POPS ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MARTIN COAST (40
PERCENT) AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

OVERALL...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN. THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS ROUGHLY OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD
CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SO
CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH THERE LOOKS WARRANTED. CONSIDERED
REMOVING ONE OR MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE FLOOD WATCH BUT
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY RAIN ALBEIT FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THAT
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

TUE-WED...
A LARGE AND WELL STACKED ATLC RIDGE WILL RETURN AS THE PRIMARY WX
FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL AS THE T-WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX.
DEEP SRLY FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE
TIGHT PGRAD BTWN THE RIDGE AND THE WAVE RELAXES. WEAK DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE AS THE
S/SERLY FLOW TAPS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS.
STILL...PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BTWN 1.8"-2.0"...ENOUGH TO
KEEP AT LEAST 40-50 DIURNAL POPS IN FOR THE CWA.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE THE STEERING FLOW...AND
THUS...THE HIGHEST DAILY COVERAGE. WEAK TROFFING OVER THE SERN CONUS
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE T-WAVE AS WELL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE ERN CANADA THRU MID WEEK. CURRENT H30-
H20 JET SHOWS NO SIGN OF DROPPING ANY FARTHER S THAN THE CANADIAN
BORDER...SUGGESTING EAST COAST TROFFING MAY BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...BUT NOT MUCH
FURTHER.

SRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR 15-20KTS TUE MRNG DIMINISH TO AOB
10KTS BY WED AFTN...VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SW WHILE DOING SO. PATTERN
SUGGESTS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION BY EARLY AFTN BUT WITH SLOW
INLAND PROGRESS. INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM OSCEOLA NWD WILL HAVE
HIGHEST COVERAGE...OKEECHOBEE SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE SHADOW
EFFECT OF THE LAKE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT EITHER IN
MID LVL VORTICITY OR UPR LVL DIVERGENCE...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BURN
ITSELF OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNSET.

WILL GO WITH A 40-50PCT SE TO NW SPLIT ON TUE...INCREASING TO 40-
60PCT ON WED TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT SW STEERING COMPONENT. SRLY
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN U80S/L90S...MIN TEMPS IN THE M70S.

THU-SUN...
AVG WX PATTERN FOR LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN. A WEAK FRONTAL TROF
WILL PRESS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD THRU LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE
JET STREAM LOCATED SO FAR TO THE N...THE TROF WILL WASH OUT BEFORE
IT CAN DISPLACE THE ATLC RIDGE IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER. BY WEEK`S
END...THE TROF WILL BE BRIDGED BY A STRONG CONTINENTAL TROF THAT
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DEVELOP ACRS THE ERN CONUS. SCT DIURNAL POPS
AND TEMPS WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A HIGH
COVERAGE OF STORMS ESP OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH COAST AFT 18Z
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED. WILL CARRY A BENIGN VCSH AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. VCTS TERM IS USED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS (MLB SOUTH) FOR NOW AS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST AFT 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WILL START OUT WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD THIS MORNING DUE TO SOUTHERLY PRES
GRAD SUPPORTING 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT (A COMBINATION OF
WIND WAVE AND SWELL). THE PRES GRAD WILL WEAKEN AS SFC TROUGH
PUSHES FARTHER WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH LOWER
(POSSIBLY MUCH LOWER) COVERAGE OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS.

TUE-FRI...
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE
ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SEAS 2-3FT THRU TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AOB 2FT
NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE ON WED...THEN AOB 2FT AREAWIDE THRU
WEEK`S END.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS CURRENTLY WITHIN 0.75 FOOT OF
FLOOD STAGE. FORTUNATELY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER
THE BASIN OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERSISTENT RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  87  76 /  60  30  50  40
MCO  89  75  92  76 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  89  77  88  74 /  50  30  40  30
LEE  88  75  91  77 /  70  30  50  30
SFB  89  76  92  76 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  89  76  92  77 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  90  76  88  74 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW


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