Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 311352
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
952 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

...High Rain Chances with Gusty Wind Potential Will Persist into
Late Week...
...Another Day of Strong/Dangerous Rip Currents at Area Beaches...

.UPDATE...
The local environment remains saturated this morning as a deep
tropical moisture plume continues to advect northward over the
Peninsula. Anomalously high PWATs, in excess of 2 inches areawide,
will contribute to high rain chances across the area, though the
exact evolution and distribution of rainfall is somewhat
uncertain given the extensive cloud cover over the area. Surface heating
will certainly be tempered and help delay convective initiation
until the afternoon hours. Regardless, with such a moist
environment in place, hard pressed to go against guidance and this
morning`s forecast. With a saturated and rather warm/stable
profile noted on this morning`s XMR sounding, expect thunderstorm
coverage to remain low today, though occasional cloud-to- ground
lightning strikes, and wind gusts between 30-40 mph remain
possible in any cell that develops.

Heavy rainfall is a continuing threat over the period with local
amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, but will not pull the trigger
for any kind of flood watch. Future shifts can continue to monitor
for the potential for a Flood Watch. If this becomes necessary
areas around the I-4 corridor northward would be the likely
candidates. Still feel the grounds across ECFL can handle the
rainfall with nuisance flooding of low-lying areas handled by the
occasional Urban/Small Stream Flood Advisory, if necessary.

Aside from mostly cloudy/balmy conditions, temperatures likely in
the M-U80s for highs with lows tonight continuing in the 70s
areawide. S/SSW surface winds today increasing to 15 mph late
morning/afternoon with some higher gusts likely at times. Winds will
become lighter again this evening/overnight while backing to S/SSE.

&&

.AVIATION...
Extensive cloud cover expected over the area today with MVFR
CIGs/VSBYs expected in showers that will become numerous by this
afternoon. Isolated TSRA expected across east central Florida
which will be accompanied by gusty surface winds between 30-35
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
with Small Craft Advisory in place through late morning for much
of the east central Florida coastal waters. Despite a forecasted
slackening of surface winds this afternoon, seas will remain steep
and experience little improvement, so, at a minimum, small craft
should continue to exercise caution as seas remain 5-6 feet and
winds 10-15 knots.

Fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over
the mainland and push offshore through the day today. Mariners
should be aware of the potential for gusty winds accompanying
these showers and storms and remain alert for special marine
warnings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  75  88  78 /  70  60  80  60
MCO  85  75  87  77 /  70  60  70  50
MLB  87  77  90  79 /  70  50  70  40
VRB  87  74  90  78 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  85  77  86  78 /  70  60  80  60
SFB  85  76  88  78 /  70  60  80  50
ORL  85  75  87  77 /  70  60  70  50
FPR  87  77  90  77 /  70  40  60  40

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Ulrich/Johnson/Bragaw/Smith/Glitto


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