Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300835 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT EAST CENTRAL FL
BEACHES...

TODAY...
LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW LVL MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM EAST
TO WEST INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE INTERIOR INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 30 PCT CSTL TO 35-40 PCT FOR THE
INTERIOR. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM FOR THE
INTERIOR BUT THINK LIGHTNING STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST
WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE WEST ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
LATE TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTRIBUTING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DETAILING THE HIGH
RIP CURRENT HAZARD. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 INLAND.

TONIGHT...
EASTERLY FLOW TO 10 KNOTS EARLY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW MAKING IT
INTO THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
AN ERLY WAVE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL TROF
PUSHING INTO THE MID SOUTH/MIDWEST TO COLLAPSE THE WRN FLANK OF A HI
PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW LVL ERLY FLOW THAT
DOMINATED THE WX PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE S/SE THRU THE DAY SUN IN RESPONSE...WHILE THE H85-H50
STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. UPR LVL WINDS WILL FRESHEN
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF
PRESSES ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
SIG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.

THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MINOR MID LVL
VORT MAXES TO PUSH ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WHILE ALLOWING DEEP LYR
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. H50 TEMPS ARND -10C WILL PRODUCE SOME
RESPECTABLE H70-H50 LAPSE RATES...BTWN 6-5-7.0C/KM. HOWEVER...A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL BE
PICKED UP BY THE FRONTAL TROF OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION...
MOISTURE THAT THE INCREASING UPR LVL WINDS WILL PULL ACRS FL. AS UPR
LVL CLOUDS TEND TO LIMIT SFC HEATING AND THE LOW LVL ERLY FLOW
FAVORS THE W PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHC CATEGORY FOR THE INTERIOR AND SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST. MAX/MIN
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (U80S/L90S AND
U60S/L70S RESPECTIVELY).

MON-MON NIGHT...
WX PATTERN SHIFT AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
DROPS INTO CENTRAL FL...ALLOWING LOW/MID LVL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
S/SW. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP UP...BUT LINGERING DRY AIR
THRU THE H70-H50 LYR COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT COVERAGE TO LESS THAN 50PCT. EVEN SO...THE SWRLY MID LVL
FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOW BACK PRECIP ALONG AND N OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHILE H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES ARND 70PCT SHOULD
GENERATE SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE.

INCREASING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE PRESSES INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT TO INCREASE
DIURNAL STORM POTENTIAL...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TSRAS AS MAX TEMPS
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS (L90S). MIN TEMPS L70S.

TUE-FRI...
AN INTERESTING FLIP FLOP IN THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED WRT
THE DLVPMENT OF AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIB/SE GOMEX THRU
MIDWEEK. WHEREAS THE 29/00Z ECMWF DVLPD A CLOSED SFC LOW (ALBEIT A
WEAK ON) OVER S FL THRU MIDWEEK AND THE 29/00Z GFS KEPT THE SYSTEM
AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX... BOTH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
30/00Z SOLUTIONS HAVE ADOPTED THE OTHER`S FROM 24HRS AGO.

ECMWF NOW SHOWS NO HINT OF A CLOSED SFC LOW AND KEEPS THE FEATURE AS
AN OPEN  WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WELL
DEFINED (AND SURPRISINGLY STRONG) CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED AND LIFTS IT UP THE FL PENINSULA ON THU.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION (IF EITHER) VERIFIES...IT APPEARS THE
FL PENINSULA WILL BE IN FOR A MUCH WETTER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH
MODELS SATURATE THE AIRMASS FROM SFC TO CIG BY MIDDAY WED.

WHILE IT IS UNUSUAL TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT DAY 5/6...THE
NECESSARY WX ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY AS THE ERLY WAVE MERGES WITH THE
FRONTAL TROF EARLY IN THE IN WEEK AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WELL
E OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LIFT N OUT OF THE WRN CARIB AND INTO FL. EXTENDED PD OF
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO AVG (M/U80S) WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
KEEPING MIN TEMPS ABV AVG (L/M70S).

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA WILL PUSH WESTWARD AFFECTING CSTL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND INTERIOR TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH -RA/RA AND CIGS WITH SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
ISOLD SHRA EXPECTED TO AGAIN AFFECT CSTL TERMINALS MAINLY AFT 04Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE BY LATE TONIGHT BUT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE AND SWELL PERIODS FROM 9-10
SECONDS INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUN-WED...WEAK HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO
THE WRN GOMEX WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL FL THRU DAYBREAK MON WHERE IT
WILL SIT THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SFC/BNDRY LYR
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM A LIGHT TO GENTLE ERLY BREEZE SUN
TO S/SE MON THRU WED. PERSISTENT ERLY SWELLS WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS
VEER TO A MORE SRLY COMPONENT...SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT
OFFSHORE ON SUN SUBSIDING TO 3FT AREAWIDE BY MON AFTN...THEN 2-3FT
ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  71  85  71 /  30  20  30  10
MCO  90  70  90  71 /  40  10  40  10
MLB  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  30  10
VRB  87  71  87  71 /  30  20  30  10
LEE  90  72  91  72 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  89  70  90  71 /  30  20  40  10
ORL  89  71  89  72 /  40  10  40  10
FPR  86  70  86  70 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW



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