Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 082100
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY SMALL...A
TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
GUSTY W/SW WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THEN W/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO
STRONG COLD ADVECTION. IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY BREEZY/GUSTY FOR AN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND
MID 40S BY SUNRISE WITH A WIND CHILL BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR AN
ADVISORY.

TUESDAY...A WINDY DAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING 20-25
MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU STREAMING EAST OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO SO SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S ORLANDO NORTH AND LOWER
60S SOUTH...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...DEEP AND PERSISTENT EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WX PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL WEATHER...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW A HALF INCH...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
SKIES VARYING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS
EARLY WED MORNING WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S FAR NORTH TO MID 40S SE
COAST. WITH WINDS REMAINING 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE
CANAVERAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. FARTHER SOUTH...WIND
CHILLS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU MORNING MINS LOOK TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWER 30S FAR NORTH WITH WIND
PROTECTED SPOTS REACHING FREEZING ALONG WITH FROST...AND MID 30S
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. COASTAL MINS
FROM THE CAPE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MINS MODIFY INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FRI MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS WED AND THU
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 50S NORTH HALF OF CWA TO NEAR 60/LOWER 60S
SOUTH HALF.

FRI-SUN...EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED...HOWEVER AMPLITUDE
LESSENS ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
MAX TEMPS REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE A WEAK BACKDOOR-
LIKE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. NW WIND SHIFT AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
RETURNS TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ABATE EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA BEING MET TEMPORARILY
BETWEEN 00Z-04Z OR SO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REINTRODUCE
GUSTY W/NW WINDS AFT 04Z-06Z. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON
TUE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/TUE...OFFSHORE W/SW FLOW IS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE WITH WINDS INCREASING 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OPEN ATLC. A GALE WARNING
WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS (BEYOND 20
NM) AND CONTINUE THRU TUE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL BE
VERY ROUGH.

TUE NIGHT-THU...STRONG W/NW WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME THU
AFTERNOON WHILE VEERING TO THE N. SEAS REMAIN 5-8 FT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND 3-5 FT NEARSHORE.

THU NIGHT-SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS BECOME LIGHT...5 KT OR LESS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BACKDOOR FRONT THEN INCREASES NW FLOW TO 20 KT OVER AT
LEAST THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS 2-
3 FT AREAWIDE FRI...THEN REBUILD TO 3-5 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA MOST OF THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REACH 30 TO 35
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES
THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS. SINCE ERC VALUES REMAIN LOW...NO RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES TO
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  58  36  56 /  20   0  10   0
MCO  46  59  41  58 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  45  60  42  59 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  47  61  44  61 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  45  57  40  57 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  44  58  38  57 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  47  58  42  58 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  48  62  44  61 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SPRATT


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