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000
FXUS62 KMLB 180826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

TODAY....DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING
AT THE INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WHERE A
SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. HOW THIS MCS AND THE SURFACE LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MODELS HAVE A 1011MB-1013MB CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO HELP
PIVOT THE CONVECTION NORTHWARDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MESOSCALE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS A
LITTLE TOO FAR WEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FEATURE
AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS SLOW.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF.

INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH THE WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY AND WELL MARKED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST AND MELBOURNE
AROUND DAYBREAK...VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ORLANDO METRO BY MID
MORNING AND NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
ACCELERATE FASTER IF THE GULF LOW TAKES SHAPE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY.

SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IF THE WARM FRONT LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH EARLY
ENOUGH BEFORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GULF SPREADS OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL TRACK INTO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS/PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF IT IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWING DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVERHEAD THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY STALLS.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SPC HAS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MENTIONED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING TO A
MODEST 35-45KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARDS...WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING A GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BACKED AND CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TO A
RESPECTABLE -10C TO -12C MAKING HAIL A POSSIBILITY.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOW DOWN. THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AS FLOW VEERS WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOUGHT 30-40KT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BRING A
FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE INTO THE EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 17/15Z...BAND OF SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION WITH WARM FRONT WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL BAND PRIMARILY ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FL020-030
PRESENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. 17/15Z-17/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS FL035-040 WITH SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BEHIND INITIAL WARM FRONT. AFTER 17/18Z...
MCS/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHING INTO FL PENINSULA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
20KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 15-20KTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND WARM FRONT...LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH...WITH 8-9FT OFFSHORE/
6-7FT NEARSHORE THIS MORNING BECOMING 5-6FT NEARSHORE/6-7FT OFFSHORE
BY THIS EVENING. TIMING ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS TOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WARM FRONT...BUT SINCE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN
IF WINDS DROP A LITTLE BELOW CRITERIA WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF WINDS DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY...
THIS MAY BECOME AN ADVISORY JUST FOR SEAS.

OVERALL HOWEVER POOR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR SMALL CRAFT. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAT-TUE...SWRLY FLOW ON SAT WILL VEER TO NW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
LOW CENTER IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MAOR TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS A LITTLE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT STILL SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDS.
HOWEVER...SCA CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PGRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO NRLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTY WITH FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
OF 10-12FT...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM IF WINDS ARE
CLOSER TO 25KT OR SO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  72  58  74 /  60  40  30  20
MCO  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
MLB  70  78  61  77 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  71  80  59  78 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  65  75  56  78 /  60  40  30  10
SFB  68  75  56  78 /  60  40  20  10
ORL  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
FPR  72  81  60  78 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI