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000
FXUS62 KMLB 250826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
426 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TODAY WITH SFC
RIDGE AXIS NEAR TO SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. OFFSHORE FLOW TO REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE TO FORM THIS AFT...BUT WILL HAVE AN EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND FARTHER INLAND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA AND GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0 INCHES
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALOFT THAT ARE DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ALONG SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST WITH INCREASING COVERAGE INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY. THESE COLLISIONS WILL BE FAVORED
MORE TOWARD THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF MELBOURNE AND CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST FARTHER NORTH ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MAY SEE A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS REACH THE
MID 90S WHERE STORMS AND INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

LINGERING CONVECTION FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND DEBRIS CLOUD
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

SAT-MON...SOME DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IT WAY AROUND THE SW
ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE TOWARD CENTRAL PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...
AMPLITUDE OF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FLATTENS TO
REMOVE LARGE SCALE FORCING. DEEP LAYER WESTERN FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER OR SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE
SCATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND...REDUCING TO ISOLATED MONDAY AS DRIER
AIR BECOMES MORE PROMINENT. MAX/MIN TEMPS GENERALLY 3-4 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 101-103 DEG SUN/MON...EVEN
TOWARD EAST COAST DUE TO DELAYED/LIMITED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

TUE-THU...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY
WITH TROUGH AXIS DIGGING WELL SOUTH INTO FLORIDA THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN DEEP MOISTURE
TO THE REGION...WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF TROUGH AXIS REACHING
NORTHERN PENINSULA TUE AND POSSIBLY WORKING INTO CWA WED/THU. POPS
WILL RESPOND TO AT/ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. MAX TEMPS REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING AND
HOLDING OFF ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN BEGINNING INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE FORMS ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR. STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH SLOWLY BACK
TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMLB LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
THEN RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL PRODUCE A S/SW WIND OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING BECOME S/SE AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES SLOWLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FEET. STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BE ABLE TO PUSH OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MELBOURNE.

SAT-TUE...S/SW WIND BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME
SW-W 10-15 KT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS NEAR SHORE
AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  76 /  50  30  40  30
MCO  93  75  94  75 /  50  20  40  20
MLB  91  75  90  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  91  74  90  75 /  30  30  40  30
LEE  93  77  94  77 /  50  20  40  20
SFB  93  76  95  77 /  50  20  40  20
ORL  93  77  94  78 /  50  20  40  20
FPR  91  73  90  74 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....SPRATT