Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 180433 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AVIATION [18.06Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF AL AND NWFL LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WILL FORM NEAR OR ALONG A
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND TO AROUND 1-10 CORRIDOR
LATER TODAY. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG FOR MOST INLAND AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MOSTLY AROUND SUNRISE. FOR THU A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER EXTREME WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS OF AL SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY. THIS BETTER
COVERAGE TO THE WEST ON THU IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD GENERALLY EAST OF THE MS
RIVER COMBINED WITH BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FORMING ALONG A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT DRIFTS
NORTHWARD MOSTLY TOWARDS LA/MS/AL COAST LATER IN THE DAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WHICH ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. 32/EE

A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DRY DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN OVER MOST INLAND AREAS.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS
FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MEANWHILE REMAIN SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE
THIS FEATURE OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. A
DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. POPS
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS GENERAL WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MARINE AREA MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SAT. A LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW MOSTLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. A BETTER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BETTER SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NE AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN BEGINNING LATE FRI CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION BEGINNING FRI CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  89  69  89  70 /  20  20  20  20  05
PENSACOLA   72  89  71  88  72 /  20  10  20  20  10
DESTIN      76  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  90  64  89  66 /  20  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  67  90  65  90  66 /  05  10  10  10  05
CAMDEN      63  90  64  89  66 /  05  05  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   65  91  66  90  66 /  20  05  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











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