Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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904
FXUS64 KMOB 041140
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES, EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW, GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY, WILL USHER IN A COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA IS NOW WELL EAST APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.
UPSTREAM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A DRY, POST FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL, DRY AIR AND BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY WITH INLAND SITES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S NEARER THE COAST. /08

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WOBBLES
SOUTHEASTWARD, PUSHING A COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. WITH THIS, TEMPS THURSDAY FALL A BIT MORE BELOW
SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH CALMER WINDS, CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY, TEMPS
FALL TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW STALLS, THEN MEANDERS A
BIT EAST, ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO WORK ITS WAY
EAST (FROM ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS). HIGHS FRIDAY
SEE LITTLE EFFECT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING CLOSER, WITH HIGH
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT, THE EASTWARD SHIFTING
RIDGE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FA, WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO RISE, INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

/16

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AS THE
EASTERN CONUS LOW AND PLAINS UPPER RIDGE SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. THIS
PUSHES A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE RESULT IS A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. TEMPS MODERATE
UPWARD TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TWO ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES SWING AROUND THE
UPPER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BECOMES DISORGANIZED.
THE FIRST ROUND PASSES OVER MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
FOR SHRA WITH THIS FIRST ROUND, BUT AS THE SECOND GROUPS MOVES
TOWARDS AND OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SHRA AND TSRA
RETURN TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

/16

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

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