Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 261020
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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