259
FXUS64 KMOB 092053
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024


A very complicated and active
pattern will evolve over the next 24 hours bringing potentially a
couple rounds of sever storms to the area. This afternoon, the
atmosphere has become very unstable with around 3000J/kg of MLCAPE
due to temps around 90 an dewpoints in the mid 70s. Meanwhile we are
monitoring for development along the remnant outflow/sfc cold front
sagging southward into central Alabama. At this time, most of the
development has been east of the area due to the lack of forcing and
a capping warm layer aloft. However as the outflow boundary moves
south, storm development is possible through this evening mainly
across northeastern portions of the area and with strong instability
and favorable deep layer shear, storms would likely become severe
with large hail and damaging winds. The main show is expected to
come overnight tonight as the next shortwave approaches. Storms are
expected to develop this evening over the Arklatex region and
quickly evolve into a thunderstorm complex(MCS) and move east. The
MCS is expected to quickly move east driven by a strong cold pool.
Instability values remain high due steep mid level lapse rates
around 8c/km. This MCS is expected to ride the remnant outflow
boundary some near the highway 84 corridor. Given the environment in
place, damaging to potentially destructive winds of 60 to 80+ mph
will likely swiftly move across interior areas of our area. A couple
tornadoes cannot be ruled out; however, low level shear might be a
little too weak to really get the QLCS tornadoes going.

A final very conditional round of strong to severe storms is
possible Friday morning. This round is very low confidence and more
marginal. It is highly dependent on the overnight storms and if
storms are able to develop in the wake of the overnight MCS. These
storms would likely be somewhat elevated above the left over cold
pool, so large hail would be the main threat. While heavy rain will
be possible, the duration is expected to remain short enough to
prevent more than just localized minor flooding.

Coastal Hazards...With moderate southerly flow persisting through
the period, a HIGH risk of rip currents will be possible through
Friday. /13

&&

.SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

As the upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast Friday evening
moves off, an upper ridge over the Southern Plains shifts east over
the Southeast ahead of a eastward moving closed low over the Desert
Southwest. Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave
energy moving over the Southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting
into Tuesday before the positively tilted upper low passes north of
the forecast area. The cold front which stalled over the Gulf of
Mexico moves north as a warm front over the Southeast Monday into
Tuesday, drawn north with a closed surface low moving north along
the Mississippi River. This will bring a first round of
precipitation to the forecast area. There is a chance of strong to
severe storms Monday into early Tuesday which will be addressed
below. Tuesday night on, guidance has been inconsistent with the
strength of the cold front and moisture levels behind, resulting in
variations with PoPs Wednesday and after. Have tried to even out the
variations, remaining close to the NBM for this issuance.

Taking a closer look at weather for Monday into Tuesday and severe
storms, south of the warm front, guidance is advertising SBCapes
rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range. Add in good wind shear (Bulk
wind shear topping out between 50 and 60kts Monday night into
Tuesday), and an increased risk of severe weather returning to the
forecast area. There is some disagreement in the guidance in how far
inland the warm front will go, so painting an area is hard to pin
down at this time. In addition to possible strong to severe storms,
will need to monitor for water issues, with the good overrunning of
the warm front if it slows, along with training cells. Will need to
monitor for now.

High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday drop into the
mid 70s to around 80 for Monday, then rise into the mid to upper 80s
for Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60 Friday and Saturday nights gradually rise into the low 60s
to near 70 for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
/16

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A moderate onshore flow will persist through early Friday.
Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the
coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A
front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a
light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into
Saturday. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  88  61  83  60  83  64  78 /  40  50   0   0   0  10  30  70
Pensacola   73  84  64  81  62  81  68  78 /  40  60   0   0   0  10  30  70
Destin      74  82  65  81  66  81  69  78 /  30  70   0   0   0   0  20  60
Evergreen   68  85  56  80  56  84  61  77 /  80  70   0   0   0   0  20  70
Waynesboro  66  85  55  80  57  81  61  75 /  80  30   0   0   0  10  30  70
Camden      65  83  55  78  56  81  60  75 /  80  50   0   0   0   0  20  70
Crestview   69  85  58  83  57  85  62  79 /  50  70   0   0   0   0  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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