Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301136 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...BRINGING SOME WRAP AROUND MAINLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP UP
SHRA/TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR COVERAGE TO MENTION IN
TAFS. VSBY OK. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING TAKE ON A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF
THE FOG LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO EVERGREEN AL TO CRESTVIEW FL. HIGH
RESOLUTION SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS FOG MAY SPREAD A BIT MORE WEST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE MADE A SMALL UPDATE TO GRIDDED WEATHER AND
ZONES FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS NOTED ON RADAR OVER
MOBILE BAY AND SOUTH OF FORT MORGAN...BENEATH THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THEN FILL AND WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
IT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TAPER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO
EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROF LOOKS TO BE ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES.
THUS...A LIGHT WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
MEXICO MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL FORM OVER EAST TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AN EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECTING NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALSO BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 89 TO 94 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MID
90S INLAND AREAS AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
EAST TEXAS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE...WE
WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREA THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK...
WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HEAT INDUS`S
WILL REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. /22

MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND BECOMING ONSHORE DURING
THE DAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD RIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AN EASTERLY WAVE...ARE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND CENTRAL CUBA. MOISTURE ALONG IT IS
BEGINNING TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  71  93  70  93 /  20  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   90  73  91  74  92 /  20  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      88  75  91  76  92 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   89  68  93  67  95 /  20  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  90  68  93  67  95 /  20  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      89  68  92  67  95 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   92  70  94  69  95 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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