National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMOB 190901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE NIGHT HAS
COME TO AN END ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
MOVED OUT INTO THE GULF WATERS. RADAR SHOWS A SMALL MCV CENTER OVER FAR
INLAND SW AL WHICH IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. EVEN
THOUGH WE MAY SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TO START THE DAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75-2.00
INCHES. THIS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SLOW
MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A WEAK FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA...AND MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY STORM THREATS. THE PRELIMINARY WET MICROBURST RISK IS
MODERATE...SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE ON HIGHS...WITH UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 FORECAST.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP WATERS DROPPING TO
AROUND 1.2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY
84 CORRIDOR. PRECIP WATERS NEAR 1.8 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE A 30% RAIN CHANCE
IN OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.
34/JFB

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING EASTWARD AT THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE ATOP A WEAK STALLED SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROF THAT
STRADDLES THE AREA PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON THURSDAY. THE BETTER POSITION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATERS GREATER THAN 1.5" ARE ALIGNED CLOSER TO AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTERS HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES. A
DIURNAL DECREASE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP LOW END CHANCES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
PREVAILING WIND FLOW LOOKS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE
PRESSURE TROF IN THE VICINITY. WINDS STRONGER IN AND NEAR STORMS.
AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 68
INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS LOOKS TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
WEAK COASTAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST. THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY DURING THE DAY
WHEN HIGHER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAY BECOME
A BIT BETTER DEFINED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK FROM
TEXAS...EASTWARD INTO FLORIDA. IT IS THEN...WE LOOK TO BE GETTING
INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONVECTIVE MODE. CONSIDERING THE
BUILDING RIDGE...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE HEADING BACK UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THE
OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS
BY MID MORNING AS HEATING COMMENCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 34/JFB


&&

.MARINE...THE MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE PAST DAY WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WASHES OUT BY THE WEEKEND WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEAS START OUT 2-4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH 1-2 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  69  91  71  90 /  50  30  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  72  90  74  89 /  50  30  40  30  30
DESTIN      86  75  88  74  87 /  50  30  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   88  67  91  68  89 /  50  20  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  67  92  68  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN      87  67  91  68  89 /  40  10  30  20  30
CRESTVIEW   90  67  92  68  90 /  50  30  50  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$