Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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252
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

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