Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 210729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THEN DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON...

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





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