Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241045
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

This morning a shortwave was digging across the region and brought
an enhanced area of mid-level clouds and a few rain showers across
portions of Wisconsin, clipping southern portions of Upper Michigan.
This has allowed radiational cooling to slow a bit along the
Wisconsin border, but temperatures just north of this area of clouds
has seen temperature drop into the mid to upper 30`s so far this
morning.

As the above mentioned clouds continue to push south-southeast of
Upper Michigan early this morning, expect radiational cooling to
pick up given the light winds and drier air coming into the
region. Therefore, we`re still looking at patchy to locally
widespread areas of frost early this morning. No plans to change the
inherited frost advisory. Today will be a bit warmer as slightly
warmer 850mb air works in concert with abundant sunshine and a drier
air mass. Tonight, cloud cover will not be an issue when it comes to
radiation cooling given the dry air mass, light winds, and clear
skies. Therefore, we`re looking at the potential for additional
frost tonight into early Friday morning across the interior west and
central. It certainly looks like another frost advisory may be
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with
the trough from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes giving way to a
ridge from the western Great Lakes to Hudson Bay by late Friday. As
the western CONUS ridge again builds into western Canada, a mid
level trough from nw Ontario into the Upper MS Valley will gradually
slide to the east bringing shower chances back into Upper Michigan
Saturday night into Monday.

Friday into Friday Night, Dry conditions will continue as sfc high
pressure remains in place and mid-level ridging blocks the eastward
progression of the shortwave and associated pcpn over MN. Highs
Friday will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s with lows Fri
night mainly in the 40s, except for lower 50s near the Lake Superior
shore.

Saturday into Sunday, Shower chances will increase Sat into Sun
mainly over the west half of Upper Michigan as the shortwave and
associated sfc trough work slowly eastward from MN. Highs both days
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday through Wednesday, Expect shower chances to dwindle from
early to midweek as models generally show the mid level low dropping
se from MN toward IL/IN as weak forcing stays mainly south of Upper
Mi.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

A small pocket of VFR ceilings have pushed inland near KSAW,
otherwise terminals are under clear skies. With drier air pushing
into the region today and tonight, expect skies to remain and/or
become clear with light winds.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 343 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

Overall winds will remain below 20 knots through the end of this
week and through much of next week. Over the next few days, as high
pressure lingers across the Upper Great Lakes, the strongest
winds look like they should be confined to the far southwest and
eastern portions of the lake where localized funneling of the wind
will be strongest.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ004-
     005-010-011-084.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...Ritzman



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