Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 031849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTION...BUT THEY DO
AGREE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDER...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE CATEGORICAL SHOWERS.  WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO LOOK PRETTY WET...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE DRIEST.

AS WITH YESTERDAYS LONG TERM FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MORE DEVELOPED AND WETTER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES RESEMBLE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE TODAY THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY. SO WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM ITSELF IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY.
NOW THE NAM LINGERS THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT HAD MONDAY DRIER. SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GREATER
NOW ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY DIURNAL LOOK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER THANKFULLY...ALBEIT
BRIEF. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR CWA...TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN TERMS OF BEING DRIER
AND SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. WILL STILL LEAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUESDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS A NOW ZONAL FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  79  68  81 /  80  80  60  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  78  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  79  67  80 /  80  80  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  77  65  78 /  80  80  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.