Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 262007
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD
DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER ON SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER LAYERS REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY EARLY. LIGHT RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS SW AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE WHERE EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE
LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STILL A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR CHATTANOOGA, BUT THINK THAT MOST, IF
NOT ALL OF IT, SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AND AWAY FROM US SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE PRETTY STEADILY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. GFS IS STILL AN
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AS IT PUSHES THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND CLEARS OUT PRECIP MUCH FASTER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
THINK THAT IT IS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WETTER EURO/CANADIAN/NAM. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH, AND AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL.

AS SOON AS THIS SYSTEM LEAVES A COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CAUSE HIGHS
TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. AFTER THAT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
UNTIL A UPPER LEVEL LOW WANTS TO KICK OUT WEST OF THE AREA.
TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THE TIME,
BUT WITH TEMPS STILL COLD AFTER THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MORE OF THE
AREA COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             35  57  46  58 /  10  40  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  59  43  58 /   0  20  80  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  57  44  54 /   0  20  80  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              29  60  38  55 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/ABM


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