Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 181850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE WESTERN
TN RIVER VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF FOG TO
MAINLY AROUND THE WATERWAYS...AND WILL THUS MENTION PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THIS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CREATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND POSSIBLY
OVER NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAXES THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WITH MINS...AND
WILL TREND COOLER THAN BOTH WITH MAXES (WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND
LATELY).

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN SYSTEM AND ONLY SYSTEM OF
CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING IN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM
AND WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY EVENING.  FRONT HAS MINIMAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP
POPS AROUND 30.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND SHOULD DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  78  57  78 /   0  20   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB


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