Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 281913
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...PESKY LAST REMNANTS OF LOW
CLOUDS FINALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES.
DEW POINT TEMPS HAD DIPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS FOR
TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION BY 06Z TO
12Z SUNDAY. FREEZE WARNING RIGHT ON TRACK AND WAS UPDATED EARLIER.

EXPECTING A GOOD RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS. ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SUCH
THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT MILDER MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE...AND COULD BE EVEN
MILDER THAN THE GFS MOS MINS (WHICH I CLOSELY FOLLOWED OVER THE
COOLER NAM MOS). THIS MEANS ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

ENDED THE SHOWERS FASTER ON MONDAY MORNING BUT DID ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CLEARING SKIES ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...BASICALLY STAYING
WITH SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING A RATHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN A WARMING LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE INCREASES THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE
STRENGTHENING DECENTLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A HEALTHY COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY BROAD BRUSHED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE PLEASANT WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS POPPING INTO THE 70S UNTIL SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  59  49  67 /   0  10  70  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  24  57  44  63 /   0  10  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  58  42  65 /   0  10  70  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              17  53  38  62 /   0  10  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 11
     AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-
     WEST POLK.

VA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG


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