Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 142045
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SAMPLE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR THAT HAS
BEEN OFF TO OUR WEST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z ACTING AS A BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COLD AIR IN THE EAST AND WARM AIR IN THE WEST. THIS
THERMAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. THE INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
SOME MIXED PRECIP IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...DEPENENT ON
THE LOCATION OF THE QUASI STATIONARY THERMAL BOUNDARY. WARMER AIR
WILL MAKE A SHORT RETURN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND WAVE
BUT THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGE
TO SNOW.

PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSLATE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE BUT AGREE IN KEEPING MOST WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MORE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW THEN FOLLOWS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ALL
TAF SITES SEEING OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING AFTER 06Z MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN


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