Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280916
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO SETTLE INTO THE CONUS THIS
MORNING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE/LOW DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO
THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WHILE THE REST OF IT CARVES OUT A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN DEVELOPING A LOW CENTER THERE ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST RIDING OVER COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA...AND WILL DRAG DOWN MUCH
COLDER AIR AFTER IT PASSES.

AHEAD OF FRONT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
TODAY...GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTH. A LITTLE MORE SNOW
COVER...EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTH.

SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN MODELS SHOW MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW A MOIST AND DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER
COINCIDENT WITH MAX FORCING THROUGH THAT TIME...THOUGH DEGREE OF
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BUT STILL WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...AND EFFICIENT SNOW-
MAKING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OVERCOME LOW QPF EVENT TO PRODUCE AN INCH
OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH MONDAY HIGHS ONLY GAINING A FEW DEGREES OVER MORNING
LOWS IN THE SOUTH WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF NEW SNOW PANS OUT AS FORECAST. THEN HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL
ROTATE TO OUR EAST AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW. TRACK OF UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION ARE STILL IN
DOUBT...BUT GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
IN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO
THE EAST SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO MOSTLY SNOW...BUT COULD
SEE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD
GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...FROM THE TEENS WEDNESDAY TO NEAR 30
FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AT KOFK JUST PAST THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST
29/06-12Z...AND POSSIBLY AT KOMA/KLNK BY 29/12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD


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