Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ENSUES
THEN WITH STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG...AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR NORTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
FIRE WEATHER...DEE



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