Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 221750
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1250 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area from west to east through this
afternoon. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through the
end of the week. A cold front crosses Saturday night, with high
pressure building in from the west for the beginning of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain will continue to come to an end from west to east through
this afternoon as the cold front sweeps across the area. Behind
the front skies will begin to clear, resulting in a period of
partly to mostly sunny conditions this afternoon, especially
from NYC north and west.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady or slowly fall through
the afternoon as gusty northwest winds usher in colder air
behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Clear, with diminishing winds overnight allows for radiational
thermal decoupling in the rural areas. A blend of MOS was used
with near freezing in the NY Metro for lows forecast.

Sunny and chilly, but with a light wind for Thanksgiving. Cooler
NAM/ECMWF blend seems best for temps (about 8 degrees below
normal).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure at the surface, pushes off the East Coast late
Friday into Friday night as a warm front over the Eastern Great
Lakes lifts well north of the area. Warm air advection doesn`t
seem to kick in until Friday evening, so dry and continued cool
for Friday, but slightly warmer than Thursday with highs in the
middle to upper 40s.

Another cold front approaches the area late Saturday and passes
through Saturday night. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will
bring temperatures to normal levels to above normal levels, in the
upper 40s to upper 50s. 00Z GEFS keeps it dry.

A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday with a
reinforcing shot of cold air. Some instability with the colder
air aloft associated with the upper level trough may produce
some light rain showers.

High pressure then keeps the area dry through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A coastal low passes well to the east of Long Island as high
pressure builds in from the west tonight.

VFR returns most terminals, except sub VFR initially eastern
terminals. After 20-22Z, VFR as skies clear. These VFR conditions
continue through tonight and Thursday morning.

Gusty NW winds of 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt are forecast for the
remainder of the afternoon. Winds taper off during the evening, with
gusts abated by around midnight. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt
throughout overnight. NW winds slowly back toward the W/NW Thursday
morning.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the
right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent
after 1-3Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the
right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent
after 1-3Z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the
right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent
after 1-3Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty NW winds
into the early evening. Gusts expected to be less frequent after
0-2Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty NW winds
into the early evening. Gusts expected to be less frequent after
0-2Z.

KISP TAF Comments: Winds become gusty from the NW before 20Z.
Gusts expected to be less frequent after 2-4Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday afternoon-Friday night...VFR. NW winds back to the W/SW.
SW winds G15-20KT possible Friday night, mainly at eastern terminals.
.Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR possible in rain. W-NW winds
G15-20KT possible Saturday night.
.Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30KT possible.
.Monday...VFR. Winds back and lighten.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front will continue to move east across the waters this
afternoon. In its wake, SCA gusts are expected this afternoon
and evening in northwest flow. Gusts will subside overnight.

5 to 6 ft waves on the ocean waters on Thursday as a northwest
flow shifts to the west-southwest. Waves will diminish Friday,
generally coming down below 5 ft for most areas on the ocean by
Friday afternoon. Waves increase again on the ocean late Friday
night as a southwesterly flow sets up ahead of an approaching
cold front, diminishing Saturday night.

Winds should generally remain below 25 kt until Sunday afternoon as
a northwest flow strengthens behind the passage of a cold front.
Winds should remain above 25 kt from Sunday evening throughout the
rest of the long term.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers will continue to move east of the area through late this
afternoon with up to a tenth of an inch of additional
precipitation expected. No hydrologic problems are anticipated
the next 7 days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Tongue
NEAR TERM...FEB/Tongue
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...Tongue
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FEB/Tongue
HYDROLOGY...FEB/Tongue


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