Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









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