Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN STILL BEING GENERATED VIA ISENTROPIC
LIFT JUST EAST OF A LOW LEVEL TROWAL. ECHOES ATTM HAVE BEEN
DRIFTING NW INTO SW CT...NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
HAVE INCREASED POP THERE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
TROWAL IS FCST TO DRIFT WSW OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING
MOSTLY INTO NJ. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPS.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT.
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

MAINLY WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CIGS 1 THSD - 2 THSD FT AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFT
SUNSET.

WINDS...NE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT UNTIL SUNRISE...N NEAR 20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BECOMING NNW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NW...TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC ON
SUNDAY AT 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40
KT POSSIBLE.

KSWF WILL HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ARE
MORE LIKELY BY LATE SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY
LATE DAY SAT OR SAT NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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