Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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547
FXUS61 KOKX 191125
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Jose moves south and east of the area today and
tonight. The area will then be impacted by Jose into the day on
Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds over the area Thursday
through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly tracks to the
southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products
for more details on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As the pressure gradient increases between Jose and a departing high,
winds will increase today, highest across eastern Long Island
and far southeastern Connecticut. With the approach of Jose rain
will overspread the area today, with the stronger onshore flow
across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. A
slight shift eastward and latest satellite imagery shows a
tighter precipitation gradient on the western periphery of Jose.
Therefore, have lowered precipitation amounts across the area.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s.

With long period swells allowing surf to build, dangerous beach
conditions will continue this evening. A high risk of rip
currents and high surf advisory remain in effect for Atlantic
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Northeasterly winds continue to increase this evening, with the
highest winds and strongest gusts expected across eastern Long
Island and southeastern Connecticut tonight into Wednesday
morning. Any rain will continue through tonight before tapering
off Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions thereafter. In
addition to the winds and rain, dangerous conditions will
persist along the coast, where minor to moderate coastal
flooding will be possible. High surf and high risk of rip
currents will be seen along the Atlantic Ocean beaches. See the
hydrology and coastal flooding sections below for more
information.

Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s, with highs
on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area on Thursday. Winds will be
on a downward trend as the pressure gradient weakens Thursday
and then remains nearly the same going through the weekend. A
persistent northerly flow is expected. Highs are forecast be
mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows low to mid 60s are
forecast most nights with lows a little lower Thursday night
and Friday night with a range more in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Rough surf with locally higher waves will be likely at the beaches
during Wednesday night through Friday evening, when the ocean seas
are forecast to range 7-10 ft. This will be mainly east of Fire
Island Inlet due to continuous long period swell.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast of Jose late this week
into this weekend. Subsequent forecast could very well have changes.
Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose
from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves to the north of the terminals as Jose
approaches the New England coast today.

Mainly IFR to MVFR to start the TAF period with ceilings
gradually lifting through the day. Showers begin to move in from
the east this morning, continuing through the day mainly from
the city on east. VFR is expected middle to late afternoon with
the exception of KGON and KISP. Ceilings may lower again
tonight to MVFR, but it is possible that VFR prevails at most
terminals.

NE flow will steadily increase and become gusty this morning.
Strongest wind gusts will likely be east of the city late this
afternoon through tonight.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Ceilings may end up improving a few hours
quicker than forecast. Gusts will steadily increase through the
day and could be a few kt higher than forecast.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is RED, which
implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Ceilings may end up improving a few hours
quicker than forecast. Gusts will steadily increase through the
day and could be a few kt higher than forecast.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is RED, which implies
slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Ceilings may be IFR briefly this morning
before lifting to MVFR. Improvements to VFR this afternoon could
happen a few hours earlier than forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Ceilings may be IFR briefly this morning
before lifting to MVFR. Improvements to VFR this afternoon could
happen a few hours earlier than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Ceilings may be higher than forecast and
could end up VFR sooner than forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Low chance ceilings improve to VFR this
afternoon. Gusts could be a few kt higher than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday...Lingering MVFR improves to VFR. Northerly wind
gusts gradually weaken through the day.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.
.Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic today, seas on
the ocean waters will continue to increase, building to 10 to
15 ft by this afternoon, and 12 to 18 ft by tonight. Seas near
the entrance to the LI Sound from the ocean will also become
rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range by tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the New York Harbor and
the western Long Island Sound beginning this morning as
sustained winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt.

Higher ocean seas at least of 5 ft are forecast Wednesday night
through Saturday. Highest waves are forecast Wednesday night through
Friday with 7-10 ft on the ocean. Wind gusts exceed SCA criteria
with values near 25kt mainly on the ocean waters from Moriches to
Montauk out 20nm while late Thursday night into Friday could have
25kt gusts spread farther west into ocean waters south of Fire
Island Inlet and Eastern Long Island Sound and Eastern Long Island
Bays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range from 0.50 to
0.75 inches in and around NYC to 1 to 2 inches across far
eastern Long Island. This could result in minor urban and poor
drainage flooding, especially in any heavier rain bands.
Rainfall amounts will decrease significantly north and west of
New York City. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts
for official information about Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov
and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

No hydrologic problems are anticipated through the weekend with the
current rainfall forecast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells
from Jose, will bring increasingly dangerous surf of
potentially 10-15 ft today and continuing into Wed. This will
cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and
localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) into middle of
next week.

With increasing confidence in track of Jose to the SE of Long
Island, have leaned towards a blend of the higher end and mean
of Stevens and P-ETSS guidance envelope for surge forecasts.
This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft of surge during
the late Tue into Wed high tides, which would result in
widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding.

These surge values could result in 2 to locally 3 ft inundation
in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of
LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2
ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of
elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the
beachfront.

As confidence increases in storm details over the next 24
hours, we will be able to refine these surge value and and
potential coastal flood hazards/impacts further.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ007-008-010>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ074.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ071-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ071-177.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ075-178-179.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig
NEAR TERM...Fig/PW
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Fig
HYDROLOGY...Fig
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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