Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OR WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION AT NORTHWEST CORNER OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
SO AVERAGE OUT TO MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY.

SEABREEZE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...JUST
DEVELOPING A TAD SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERMAL GRADIENT
IS LARGER SOONER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BETWEEN COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
THE OCEAN/SOUND...PLUS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKER...SO CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF FAR W PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING UP A TAD FASTER THAN EXPECTED...AND ALREADY
ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS...SO HAVE
TWEAKED UP A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST LOCATIONS...CONSISTENT WITH A
LAV/MAV/MET BLEND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH...ONE
TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUN NIGHT. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE
PRECEDED BY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS LATE SUN AFT/NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES BY EARLY MON. AIRMASS WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED WITH LACK OF A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IN THE LATE AFT/EARLY
EVE SUN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH VERY WARM...MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

HIGH WILL BE IN THE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MON WITH A
FEW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND METRO NY. FORTUNATELY...DEW POINTS
WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ONCE AGAIN...USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. LIKELY SUPPRESSING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS BUILDS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT GENERALLY SW-W
DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT THE COASTLINES THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH FARTHER INLAND MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF ARRIVAL
COULD BE +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTLYING TERMINALS AND SW AROUND
5 KT ACROSS NY METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY....VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFT AND AGAIN SUN
AFT/EVE INTO MON LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA AS GUSTS
APPROACH 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...SEAS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON TONIGHT...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/PW
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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