Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231718
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

A cold front will move through KLAW and KSPS by 21 UTC, bringing a
surface wind shift to the north.

Northerly surface winds will be gusty at most sites now through
23/24 UTC. These winds will increase again 14-18 UTC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Increased cloud cover today, especially in northern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
A dry cold front will continue to push south and through Oklahoma
and north Texas today.

Latest satellite imagery depicted abundant high level clouds
moving into the northern half of Oklahoma as of 1030 am. Most
model guidance were underestimating the amount of this cloud
cover. Thus, increased the cloud cover today. This cloud cover may
dissipate this afternoon and evening.

Forecast highs today mainly in the 70s appear to be on track and
were not adjusted.

Gusty north surface winds have already formed over northwestern
Oklahoma as of 1030 am and will continue to increase during the
day as the cold front moves southward. Some gusts across
northwestern Oklahoma 35-40 mph will occur.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns will revolve around a couple of cold fronts that
will make their way south across the Plains this week and possible
freeze next weekend.

The first of these fronts will make its way south across the area
later today. This front will bring in drier and cooler air, but
is not expected to produce any precipitation. Gusty north winds
will also accompany the front. As the eastern trough deepens
tonight into Tuesday surface winds will likely strengthen as well
and remain rather gusty throughout the day tomorrow.

By Wednesday, surface high will settle south of the area with a
westerly downslope wind. This will allow a quick warm-up that will
continue into early Thursday before another, stronger front surges
south. This front may actually result in falling temps across
parts of the area Thursday afternoon with gusty north winds.
Temperatures by Friday morning will drop into the 30s and 40s with
gusty north winds adding a bit of a wind chill. Temperatures are
not expected to climb out of the 50s Friday.

Although very dry air will be in place, will maintain some low
pops across portions of southern Oklahoma mainly for consistency
sake. Latest ECMWF cont to try and wring out some light rain as it
taps into some slightly better moisture in the region.

Surface high settles south over the area Friday night/Saturday
morning. With surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s, could see a
freeze across parts of Oklahoma. Best chance right now appears to
be across the northern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  44  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  43  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77  47  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  43  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  48  67  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/04/17


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