Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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274
FXUS64 KOUN 030435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0306/0406Z...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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