Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17


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