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000
FXUS63 KPAH 202321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AIRMASS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AT
THIS TIME SO JUST CU...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SHOULD BE A LULL...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER
SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOST OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE MORE THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE TIMING OF STORMS ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CONVECTION ALLOWING COMPUTER MODELS...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
THESE STORMS TO REACH THE TAF SITES WOULD BE 06Z TO 10Z. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS...SINCE THEY WILL MIX DOWN
STRONGER WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE 4000 FOOT LEVEL. ONCE THE
STORMS PASS...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN RESIDUAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITY OF STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CN/KES
AVIATION...MY