Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Issued at 551 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A band of heavy showers with some embedded thunderstorms has entered
our western-most counties as of 2 AM. Some bowing segments within
the line are currently noted, so can`t rule out a strong storm in
our far west counties, capable of transferring some of the strong
winds aloft to the surface (LLJ starting to ramp up with winds of
55-60+ kts expected at 850mb). Any surface instability resides
down in Arkansas, where some stronger convection is currently
noted within this band moving eastward. Overall what little
elevated instability there is wanes heading into the morning
hours. The timing of this convection through the area continues on
track, with clearing from west to east from 12z to 18z.

A nice dry slot moves in during the late morning and afternoon
hours, with breezy conditions and warm temperatures. Nudged highs up
a bit closer to MOS guidance, given that we no longer have any snow
cover and we will have good mixing during the day.

Upper low currently over Kansas will push east into the Great Lakes
region by Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to indicate a
secondary band of convection developing closer to the upper low
later this afternoon, but it should largely stay to our north. May
see some wrap around showers on the backside of the low spread into
our far northern counties during the evening/overnight hours.
Otherwise dry conditions for much of the area after this initial
band of convection moves through this morning.

Should still have a decent pressure gradient on Tuesday to result in
a healthy wind, although winds won`t be near as strong as today.
Also expecting a good amount of cloud cover on the backside of the
system. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler, back closer to
normal for this time of year in the 40s during the day on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Thursday into Thursday night continues to look dry with unseasonably
warm temperatures as south winds ahead of our next weather system
pump warm air north.  GFS and ECMWF remain in decent general
agreement on the approach and passage of a cold front Friday night
into Saturday, though GFS is now about 6 hours faster than the
ECMWF.  GFS brings the front into western potions of the PAH
forecast area by 12z Saturday, and the ECMWF holds off until closer
to 18z. The latest ECMWF run is very similar to its 00z run
yesterday, and prefer to lean toward its timing due to the
consistency.  The overall solution indicates showers will spread
across the PAH forecast area Friday night, with numerous and more
substantial showers expected late Friday night and through the day
Saturday, tapering off from west to east Saturday night.  Looking at
several instability parameters, do not see a reason to include
thunder at this time.

High pressure will build in behind the front for Sunday, leading to
dry conditions.  Cooler air will filter into our region, and we
should see near seasonal temperatures.


Issued at 551 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to move east
across the area, with gusty winds extending out ahead of it. Some
IFR/MVFR vsby reductions noted with this convection as well. This
activity will continue to end from west to east through late
morning. Some MVFR cigs are expected for a short while behind the
main band of showers. Main concern through the day will be gusty
south/southwest winds of 25-30kts, possibly higher. Some decrease
in speed expected this evening/overnight, but still remaining
quite gusty. Mid cloud deck creeps back in this evening, with
guidance suggesting lowering to low VFR or high end MVFR towards
end of period.




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