Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232002
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A much cooler pattern will remain established for the most part
of the near term as a chilly batch of Canadian air works its way
south through the Plains and into the lower OH Valley region
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Not expecting much on the way of precip
with the surge of chilly air, but there will likely be a
considerable amount of cloud cover rotating southward into the
forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures Tue
afternoon will stay in the 50s to near 60 most areas. Though
surface temps could fall into the mid 30s at some locations later
Tuesday night, thinking right now is that surface winds and
delayed clearing will preclude a major frost threat. Wednesday
will be a cool and rainfree day as weak high pressure aloft moves
toward the region. Winds shifting more swly by Wednesday night
should result in slightly milder temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

High confidence in a cold front moving through Thursday night into
Friday morning. Lower confidence in precip chances with the frontal
passage and the exact timing.

Models are in decent agreement that there will be a frontal passage
on Friday but the timing remains a discrepancy. The GFS has the
front passing across the area before sunrise Friday morning with
post-frontal precipitation forming in our eastern counties Friday
afternoon and quickly exiting the area during the evening hours. The
ECMWF is in sharp contrast bringing the front through the area
during the day on Friday and developing generous amounts of QPF
overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Soundings however do not
support this as there is too much dry air aloft. Forecast shows
somewhat of a blend of these two models leaning toward the drier and
faster GFS.

Western areas may see some scattered frost Saturday morning behind
the front with temperatures hovering in the lower 30s. Eastern areas
will still have clouds and precipitation moving out with
temperatures closer to 33 to 34 degrees. The entire region will
see a good chance of frost/freeze Saturday night as temperatures
drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees under a clear sky.
Sunday night lows still drop down into the middle 30s so scattered
frost will again be possible by Monday morning. High temperatures
will top out around 70 degrees in advance of the front on
Thursday and drop to below normal readings in the 50s through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

IFR to MVFR cigs over our eastern areas will slowly lift northwest
out of the region this afternoon 18z-22Z, leaving VFR conditions
for the rest of the 18Z TAF period. Westerly winds may gust 15-20
kts at times this afternoon. Will likely lose the gusts tonight
but west winds will ramp up again by mid/late morning Tues. Could
see gusts 20-30 kts at many locations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...ML


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