Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Decided to issue a Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog
around 10Z, based on observations here at the office and from
around the area, both automated systems and spotter reports.
Several places have dropped to under a mile briefly, but only the
Madisonville area (K2I0) has consistently reported 1/4SM or less
this morning. The light wind has been just a bit too persistent
for fog to really set in this morning.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Surface high pressure centered just east of the area early this
morning, will push farther east of the area today, as high
pressure aloft builds overhead. There has been a periodic light
east or southeast breeze overnight, that has limited any
significant fog formation as of 8Z to a few very isolated
locales. Most places are at or near saturation, so if the wind
goes truly calm through sunrise, some thick fog formation will
still be possible. For now will keep the patchy to areas of fog in
the forecast, and will continue to monitor the latest observations
for signs of more widespread dense fog.

Winds will slowly veer through the day today, with most of the
area being nearly due south by sunset. This along with the ridging
aloft and sunshine will lead to a nice warm up from yesterday`s

The ridge aloft will continue to build over the region through
Saturday, but the consensus of the 00Z models drags the tale end
of a weak upper-level disturbance through the region Saturday
night and Sunday. This will temporarily flatten the ridge, and
will allow a weak cold front to approach our northeast counties by
Sunday afternoon. Even if the boundary reaches our area, the
models are showing no signs of producing any precipitation along
it. This forecast does have a wind shift enter the area late
Sunday afternoon, but the PoPs will be nil.

Temperatures will warm well above normal today, and will climb
into the lower to middle 80s for Saturday and possibly Sunday
given the late arrival of the front. Lows will be well above
normal tonight and become even milder Saturday night when most
areas will be near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the WFO PAH forecast area
into the middle of the week. The day shift crew has been trending
toward a drier forecast, but the medium range model guidance
continues to shift further south and east into California and Desert
Southwest with the Eastern Pacific/NW U.S. closed low, as it slides
southeast and opens up early next week.

The GFS seems to aggressive/fast with the movement of the
low/trough. Prefer the slower blended solutions of the ECMWF and
CMCnh. Will attempt to bias the regionally blended model consensus
in that direction collaboratively.

Temperatures with the regionally blended model suite have been a
little more restrained, so may also need to expand the diurnal range
slightly to reflect the increasing thicknesses and warmth, despite
the lesser insolation expected in late October.


Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Fog has been very transient so far this morning. All
sites except for KCGI have at least dropped to MVFR levels, and
KPAH and KEVV have at least briefly dropped to LIFR levels. Have
been handling the low stuff with BCFG and will continue that for
the first hour or two of the 12Z TAFs.

Once the fog burns off, there is some potential for an IFR or MVFR
ceiling at least for a few hours later this morning, mainly at
KCGI. This lower deck should scatter and/or lift to VFR by midday.
All of the forecasts will then remain VFR through the end of the
period. Light southeast winds this morning will veer to due
south and increase a bit for this afternoon. Speeds will be under
10kts. There should be a persistent light south wind throughout
the area tonight and that should be enough to prevent fog




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