Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272016
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Fairly high confidence that shower/thunderstorm chances will
be decreasing as we head through the short term period. However,
may need to deal with another round of two of storms over se
MO/far sw IL tonight and Saturday as very deep, moist air mass
remains in place, and weak mid level short waves eject nne within
the nearly stationary ssw flow aloft. However, as parent H50 low
pressure system lifts slowly ne into the upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes by later Saturday night into Sunday, the flow aloft
should become more west-east oriented and weaken. Thus, looking
for no more than isolated activity Sunday, mainly during the heat
of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

After a rather tranquil and very warm start to the week, moist sw
flow aloft regime may become established once again, leading to
and increase in shower/storm chances as we head in the mid week
time frame. Storm chances once again will be highly dependent on
meso features and weak mid lvl disturbances, which of course are
almost impossible to time that far out in the forecast. Will once
again need to monitor for locally heavy rain potential as this
pattern develops.

Main model differences toward the end of the long term lie with
the timing of the next cold frontal passage. Current decision was
to lean closer to the latest (more consistent) ECMWF and its
ensemble mean forecast, which bring the front through much sooner
than the latest GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Scattered non severe thunderstorms will be possible through the
afternoon hours KCGI/KPAH as an upper level impulse lifts ne from
AR. Expect VFR conditions otherwise. Gusty sly winds 15-20 kts
will settle down this evening.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080-084-085-
     088>090-092>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...GM



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