Area Forecast Discussion
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427
FXUS61 KPBZ 221625
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...THEN WARM
RAPIDLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TRENDS FOR POPS AND
TEMPERATURES. RADAR IS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR RIGHT NOW...BUT SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A
CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHED WIND...HENCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE RIDGES...MID 30S
ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY FREEZING TEMPS IN ELEVATED VALLEYS.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS THUS ANTICIPATED AND A FROST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED TO ACCOMPANY THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE I 80 COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DEW POINTS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. NEW MODELS TRENDING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH INTO
NEW YORK STATE MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED FOR A LATE WEEK PASSAGE WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP.
USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT AND
SUPPORT VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ001-002-023-041.

&&

$$



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