Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW
TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START
TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE
FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING
QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY
GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE
OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY
ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS.


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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