Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 170116
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
816 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring rain later tonight and Tuesday, with a few
showers lingering into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will
continue through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A few showers continue across the area during the evening
hours, but the bulk of the rain will arrive from midnight on. A
surge of 1 inch plus precipitable water plus strengthening
isentropic lift will arrive ahead of the advancing warm front.
Have sped up PoPs a bit based on radar and hi-res guidance.
Temperatures will also begin a slow rise overnight, which keep
precipitation in the liquid category. Most locations will receive
measurable rain by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over
the Great Lakes, another shortwave passes, and the left exit
region of the jet core moves over the forecast area.

Temperatures are forecast to range 20-25 degrees above normal for
this time of year /climatologically this is the coldest week of
the year/ as we stay in the warm sector and strong warm air
advection continues. The parent upper trough will cross the
region Wednesday with showers ending and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday.
Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the
Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid
level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model
blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures
and for surrounding office coordination.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence remains that current VFR/MVFR conditions will
deteriorate to IFR conditions or worse overnight through Tuesday
as an area of low pressure spreads rain and lowers ceilings
across all terminals. Enhancing low level flow may promote the
need to include LLWS on Tuesday.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low
pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR through early Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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