Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES
DATA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$


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