Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 281859
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in
dry weather for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft will be the dominant feature and keep most activity
at bay despite the unseasonably warm surface temperatures and
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Have maintained slight chances through
early evening with the best chances over the ridges and western
zones farther out and west of the ridge axis.

Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing
shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday
afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the
trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average
around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are
coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated
cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and
have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more
progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday,
while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in
Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend
toward the seasonal average by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected at all ports through the 24 hour TAF period. A
ridge of high pressure will keep afternoon/evening thunderstorms
isolated at best with no mention in TAFs. Winds will be light from
the south. With flight restrictions the last two mornings being
isolated and short-lived at any terminal, have not included any
restrictions in fog around sunrise although MVFR fog will be a
possibility at any site. With thunderstorm coverage more scattered
Sunday afternoon, have added VCTS to the extended portion of the
PIT TAF.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be ahead of
a weak front Sunday night into Monday. Another front will approach
the region late Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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