Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1034 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SPREADING SNOW OVER THE AREA. AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
MOVES EAST MONDAY...WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEAR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEPT LARGER COMPONENTS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF INTO OUR REGION. SPATIAL
COVERAGE AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE
MID-LEVEL FRONT INTENSIFIES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BEGINNING TO SEE
REPORTS AROUND 2"...ON PACE WITH CURRENT AN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MOST ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT CAME NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE
STUBBORN WARM AIR HAS KEPT...AND CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW AT BAY. KMGW STILL REPORTING 35 DEGREES AND REPORTS FROM
THE AREA HAVE BEEN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. TRIMMED POPS DOWN
ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WV AND HELD THE WARMER AIR IN LONGER.
ULTIMATELY SNOW FORECAST TOTALS HAD TO BE TRIMMED BACK...BUT WITH
COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILLING IN AND THE SNOW EXPECTED TO PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW EARLY MON MORNING...KEPT 2-4" IN THE FORECAST AND THE
ADVISORIES REMAIN.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE
STRANGELY ENOUGH FOR FKL/DUJ. THESE SITES WILL SINK TO IFR OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY
EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SHORT PERIODS OF
VLIFR AS WELL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z MONDAY BUT START TO
EASE A BIT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOME SITES MAY
ACHIEVE LOW-END MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






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