Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191344
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
844 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through
Saturday. Rain chances return with the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is on track and no changes are needed at this time.

Previous...
Surface high pressure sliding across southern portions of the
Mid Atlantic Region under zonal flow aloft will support dry
weather, warm advection, and thus moderating temperature through
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Intensifying warm advection under building upper high pressure
in advance of a Cntrl Rockies-to-Plains low will drive Upper
Ohio temperature well above the averages for the start of the
new week. Rain chances will be limited to light precip with the
low level warm frontal moisture surge on Sunday and Monday.

The continued advance of that low toward, and across the Great
Lakes on Monday and early Tuesday will provide the next likely
chance for measurable rain as that system pulls a cold front
across the region, although widespread problems are not
anticipated given low pressure track, rapid progression, and
projections of a narrow moisture plume. Flood issues should
remain local given melting snow, rotting ice and jams.

That cold front will also interrupt the January flaw by
heralding more seasonal temperature for mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late week weather is expected to feature another temperature
moderation and generally dry weather as another trough digs over
the Wrn U.S., with warm advection for points east.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will prevail as high pressure slides across the Mid Atlantic
Region and generates SSW wind, with gusts around 20kt this
afternoon as shallow mixing resumes.

.OUTLOOK...
Restriction potential returns with the new week and an
approaching frontal system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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