Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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