Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 280348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1148 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
An area of low pressure near New York City lifts to the northeast
overnight into Friday. A cold front continues to sweep across the
area and passes off the coast overnight. High pressure briefly
affects the area Friday night, then builds south of the area over
the weekend. Another low pressure system is forecast to slide well
to our north Saturday and combine with the old low pressure across
the Canadian maritimes, pulling a cold front across the area
Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is then expected for
Monday. A cold front may affect the area around the middle of the
week as an area of low pressure moves into eastern Canada once
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The cold front extended southwestward from low pressure near New
York City to southwestern New Jersey and the upper Delmarva
shortly before midnight. The boundary will continue to move to the
east and it should be well off the coast by 3:00 AM.
The last of the showers were accompanying the cold front. Once
the boundary passes, the cloud cover is expected to begin
decreasing. A west to northwest wind is forecast to increase
around 10 to 15 MPH.
Temperatures should drop into the 40s in much of our region with
readings in the middle and upper 30s in our northern counties.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
For Friday, mostly clear and sunny conditions are expected, but
with a gusty NW wind behind the departing low pres over New
England. The air mass behind the cold front is somewhat cooler but
sunshine will compensate some. There will be less of a north-south
temperature contrast with somewhat warmer afternoon max temps
north and slightly cooler south.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure briefly affects the area Friday night, which should
keep dry weather in the forecast.
Saturday, the high pushes well to our south across the
southeastern states, while an area of low pressure passes well to
our north across the southern tier of Canada Saturday into
Saturday night. This low is forecast to combine with the old low
pressure system across the Canadian maritimes. Winds on Saturday
could be gusty with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times.
A cold front is forecast to pass across the area late Saturday
night into Sunday. There will be a slight chance of showers during
this period as the front sweeps across the area, but most of the
precipitation may dry out as it approaches. Sunday night is
expected to be precipitation free as drier air moves in behind the
front. Winds on Sunday could continue to be gusty with gusts
reaching 20 to 30 mph at times.
High pressure once again is expected to move into the area later
on Monday and Monday night, bringing dry weather to the area.
Another low pressure system is expected to move well north across
eastern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially bringing a cold
front across our area around the middle of the week. If the front
gets stretched out too much, and all the forcing passes well to
our north, our forecast could remain dry.
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
MVFR to IFR conditions at the TAF sites through 04-06Z as a cold
front continues to push through the region along with the last of
the rain showers. Conditions then improve to VFR.
Winds shift to the W-NW tonight at around 10 KT, and then W-NW
winds increase to 15-20 KT with 20-30 KT gusts late Friday
Friday night...Generally VFR.
Saturday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible for northern
areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots.
Saturday night...Generally VFR.
Sunday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible, especially for
northern areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots.
Sunday night-Monday night...Generally VFR.
Tuesday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible, especially for
SCA is up for the waters, with wind gusts of 25-30 KT. Cold front
pushes across the waters overnight, and then W winds will average
15-20 KT with 25-30 KT gusts. A few gusts to 35 KT possible on
northern ocean waters during the day Friday.
Friday will have fair weather but with gusty NW winds and seas 5
to 6 feet offshore in a short-period swell.
Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue
into the evening Friday. Conditions should drop below Advisory
Saturday-Saturday night...Winds and seas may approach Small Craft
Advisory levels during the day into the evening Saturday.
Sunday...Conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Sunday night...Conditions may increase to Small Craft Advisory
levels behind a cold frontal passage
Monday-Tuesday...Conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.