Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 210759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
534 PM ChST Thu Sep 21 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows almost no
showers within the Marianas waters. The buoys indicate 2 to 3 foot
northeast swell and 2 to 3 foot wind waves. The VAD wind profile
reveals light northeast winds through the lowest 2 thousand feet
of the air.


The expected subsiding air has arrived. This is clearing out the
showers right now, and the clouds should follow suit later. The
only major change to forecast philosophy is that the disturbance
for this weekend is now expected to pass south of Guam. As a
result, left the clouds intact but took the showers down
scattered to isolated. Refreshed the winds and waves, however the
impact was minimal and benign marine conditions are still
expected through the first half of next week at least.


.Eastern Micronesia...
The afternoon surface analysis showed a surface trough stretching
across portions of eastern Micronesia. Satellite imagery showed a
large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with this trough. The scattered showers were over Kosrae and will
continue through at least Friday morning. As the trough moves west
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over
Pohnpei late tonight and persist through Friday. Low-level
convergence east of the trough will keep skies mostly cloudy and
produce isolated showers ant thunderstorms at Kosrae Friday and
Friday night and through Saturday at Pohnpei. The same low-level
convergence is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
to Majuro tonight and this will persist through Friday.


.Western Micronesia...
A low-level circulation could be found northwest of Palau this
afternoon. This circulation will cause isolated showers and
thunderstorms over Palau tonight. A ridge of high pressure will
push in across Palau and Yap which will keep skies partly cloudy and
showers isolated at these two locations through Friday night

The surface trough that is now over eastern Micronesia will move
west and cause an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms at
Chuuk Friday. As the trough moves over Chuuk scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected Friday night through Saturday
night. The trough will continue westward and bring scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to Yap Saturday and Saturday night and to
Palau Saturday night and Sunday.


Marianas Waters...None.


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