Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 260651

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
317 PM ChST Fri May 26 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies, isolated showers and gentle to moderate trade
wind prevail across the Marianas this afternoon. Buoys show seas
between 3 and 4 feet.


Not much changed from the inherited forecast. A rather benign
pattern is expected to continue through the next week. Models
still indicate an increase in cloud cover over the weekend, but
this is not looking very likely based on what is seen upstream on
satellite. Decided to maintain the current forecast for mostly
cloudy skies beginning Saturday, though patchy cloudiness is more
likely. Otherwise, the Marianas will likely see another dry week.


Not much going on in the coastal waters. Wave models continue to
indicate a bit of an increase in seas to between 4 and 6 feet for
tonight through Monday, yet the buoys still show seas between 2
and 4 feet. Expect seas to build to the 4 to 6 feet levels over
night and begin to subside Monday. Gentle to moderate trade winds
will also continue through Monday, before falling to gentle.


.Eastern Micronesia...
The afternoon satellite imagery showed an areas of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near Kosrae, south of Majuro with patches
of showers south of Pohnpei. These showers appear to be the product
of trade-wind convergence although ASCAT did depict a surface trough
south of Majuro. Models show the trough blending with the trade-wind
convergence zone and the whole area will move northward. Expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at Kosrae and Majuro
tonight with the scattered showers persisting at Majuro through
Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will also push
across Pohnpei Saturday and Saturday night as the convergence zone
moves over that area. Isolated showers will prevail across the
eastern half of Micronesia as models show the band of showers
breaking up by Sunday, although patches of shower will be present
keeping skies mostly cloudy at times through the remainder of the

.Western Micronesia...
A weak ridge of high pressure was keeping skies partly cloudy across
the western half of Micronesia. Afternoon satellite imagery showed
an area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of
Chuuk which is associated with a surface trough and trade-wind
convergence. Models show this area pushing westward across the area
moving south of Palau Sunday. Scattered showers will remain south of
Palau, but the activity will be close enough to generate mostly
cloudy skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low-level
convergence in the wake of the tough will keep similar conditions at
Palau through the remainder of the forecast.

Trade-wind convergence will develop over Chuuk by Saturday night
bringing mostly cloudy skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms to
that location through Wednesday.

Marianas Waters...None.


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