Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 202122
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
722 AM CHST THU AUG 21 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPDATING
THE WIND IN A FEW SPOTS. A NEUTRAL POINT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE AREA AS A
RESULT. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. IT REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND MODELS KEEP IT THAT
WAY WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

THE MODELS TODAY AGREE A BIT MORE ON THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...ECMWF AND NAVGEM
SHOW THE CIRCULATION PASSING OVER OR CLOSE TO GUAM ON FRIDAY.

EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE LOW
TREKS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS JUST AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT SURFACE
WIND CONVERGENCE... FEEL THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER THE AREA ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BRING BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. THIS OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A FEW AREAS RECEIVED AROUND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED IN TO MAJURO AND KOSRAE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND
KOSRAE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED
AT KOSRAE NEAR NOON AND AT MAJURO A LITTLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN TO BOTH LOCATIONS FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD. MODELS
SHOW THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD RESULTING IN ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTH OF 10N CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER YAP...KOROR AND CHUUK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM AT CHUUK. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CHUUK WATERS RESULTING IN CONTINUING MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/KLEESCHULTE





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