Area Forecast Discussion
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914
FXPQ60 PGUM 191913
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
515 AM ChST Mon Nov 20 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Scattered clouds, moderate easterly trade winds and combined seas
of 4 to 6 feet are across the Marianas early this morning.

&&

.Discussion...
No significant changes were made to the forecast as the dry trade
wind pattern will continue for this week. The guidance still
suggests an increase in clouds around Tuesday or Tuesday night
with a potential for thunderstorms, though not a high one, around
the midweek period. It could end up that Tuesday is cloudier
though the slightly better rain chance is Wednesday.

&&

.Marine...
Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 foot range but will build back to 5
to 7 feet by Tuesday night. At that time, the swell will go from
northeast to mixed when a northwest secondary swell is added.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A surface trough stretching eastward from west of Chuuk to a weak
circulation centered just south of Kosrae then continues eastward to
beyond the date line at 7N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the trough will continue to affect Pohnpei and
Kosrae states through Tuesday. This activity will continue to
progress westward, bringing scattered showers to Chuuk Tuesday
night. The latest time/height data shows a fairly moist pattern
continuing from Chuuk to Kosrae though the week. Shower coverage is
expected to decrease to isolated by Tuesday evening at Pohnpei and
Kosrae and Wednesday at Chuuk, however, an unsettled pattern will
continue across the region through the end of the week. For Majuro,
borderline scattered showers are seen over the atoll this morning,
with a large area of scattered to numerous showers a little farther
east. Showers may decrease to isolated for a short time today, but
expect the area to the east to be over the atoll by early afternoon.
Models do show a bit drier pattern for Majuro by Tuesday evening.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Fairly dry conditions are evident on satellite this morning for Yap
and Koror. Models indicate a fairly dry pattern continuing for both
locations through the week. maintained the forecast for isolated
thunderstorms for Koror the next couple of days as weak trade-wind
convergence just south of Koror waters could bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Otherwise, a fairly dry pattern looks to
continue through the end of the week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Nierenberg/Kleeschulte



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