Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 222136
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
736 AM ChST Thu Feb 23 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows isolated
showers moving through the Marianas Waters. Satellite shows cloud
cover at the high end of scattered as a part of an old shear line
blows past.

&&

.Discussion...
Slight increase in clouds today thanks to a fragment of an old
shear line to the east of us which broke loose and is passing over
the Marianas now. There is a similar slight increase in showers,
so slight as to not even merit mention in the forecast. GFS and
ECMWF-HiRes both drop around half an inch the next 10 days. Dry
season has arrived and is not going anywhere anytime soon. Winds
and waves will bob up and down a little, however they are
currently expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria
on the high end and above 6 feet and 15 knots at the low end. What
you see is awfully close to what you are going to get.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
GFS and ECMWF models differ just a bit in the near-term with the
ECMWF better-representing current conditions. It agrees well with
satellite animation depicting a broad area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms departing Pohnpei to the west and between Kosrae and
Kwajalein to southwest of Majuro. Trade convergence will maintain
the unsettled isolated showers/thunderstorms pattern through today
with both models showing a steady drying trend tonight and Friday
across the region. A small uptick in clouds and showers is possible
Sunday and early next week as convergence increases across the
region.

Combined seas will build by 1 to 3 feet across the region by Friday
night. Seas will become hazardous for small craft over the weekend
for Pohnpei and Majuro...and close to it at Kosrae. Surf will
also become hazardous along east-facing reefs at Kosrae tonight,
thus requiring a high surf advisory there by this afternoon. Lunar
high tides and large seas and surf could cause some minor
inundation during high tides the next several days at Majuro,
particularly at low-lying northeast-facing exposures.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A dry pattern is setting up over Palau and Yap. A disturbance that
brought some showers and thunderstorms to Palau has moved west out
of the area. While drier conditions are expected for the next day or
so, a new push of moisture will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to Palau, and maybe Yap, for the weekend. A
disturbance east of Chuuk will bring isolated thunderstorms to the
state today. A benign weather pattern will establish itself through
the weekend with variable cloudiness and isolated showers.

Combined seas will increase to around 9 feet by Friday at Yap and
Chuuk. Seas should stay just below small craft advisory here, but
will have to watch closely the next few days. Combined seas are
expected to remain below 9 feet in Palau.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Stanko/M. Aydlett



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