Area Forecast Discussion
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827
FXPQ60 PGUM 282056
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
656 AM CHST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW SMALL SHOWERS COULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED WINDS AND DEW POINT WITH NEW MODEL DATA OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST. RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE MARIANAS. MODELS
KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY SO EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS MOISTURE WILL ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EXPECT ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THAT
TIME. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
CLOUDS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 3
FEET THIS MORNING. THE TANAPAG BUOY OBSERVED THE EAST SWELL WHICH
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE IPAN BUOY SHOWED THE SWELL
COMING FROM A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION. EXPECT SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET
ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EAST WINDS WILL PICK-UP
SLIGHTLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
COMBINED SEAS. THE INCREASE IN SEAS WITH THE EAST SWELL WILL CAUSE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS MONDAY.

WW3 MODEL SHOWS A NORTH SWELL ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE SWELL WILL ONLY BE AROUND TWO
FEET WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURF ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING REEFS.

&&


.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A FAINT CONVERGENCE
ZONE SITUATED OVER KOSRAE STATE...EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN THIS
ZONE BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. IF CONVECTIVE
TREND CONTINUES UPWARD...FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED FOR
KOSRAE IN THE MID-MORNING HOURS. LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED WITH
A FEW OF THE DEEPER SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SO KEPT THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO TODAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER KOSRAE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY POHNPEI SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ENDING AT MAJURO IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
INDICATE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF 7N WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH RAINFALL AT KOSRAE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3
TO 6 INCHES. TRADE WINDS...SWELL AND WIND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CHUUK WITH CONVECTION HAVING
SHIFTED WEST OF WENO OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COMING DAYS SO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CHUUK STATE WILL PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT SO MAINTAINED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVER KOROR
AND YAP LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE
PROLONGED INTO SUNDAY FOR KOROR AS MODELS INDICATE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT LESS
RAINFALL OVER YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

$$

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS



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