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000
FXUS65 KPSR 222246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 PM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANTICIPATE SOME MODEST COOLING THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR COOLING IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT OTHERWISE...HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WASHINGTON STATE HAS SHIFTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD. THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WHERE GUSTS HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED 30 MPH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IN FAR WESTERN
IMPERIAL COUNTY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT STILL GUSTING IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. ANTICIPATE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...REMAINING CONSISTENTLY BREEZY
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RUNNING WARMER TODAY
OVER THE ARIZONA FORECAST ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
EXPECT MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT. THEN LITTLE
CHANGE FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE THOUGH
THE UPPER LOW IS NOT AS DEEP. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MODERATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME MINOR COOLING IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ROTATE A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE
PARENT LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ...WITH UPDATED GRIDDED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOWING A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER/SLOWER
ECMWF AND THE COOLER/FASTER GFS. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS REMAIN IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST...FAVORING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
ALL AIRFIELDS. PEAK GUSTS AT KIPL/KBLH MAY EXCEED 30KT AT
TIMES...WITH GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ OVER 22KT LIKELY. EXPECT WINDS
TO TAPER OFF AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SW OR WEST AT
KIPL AND KBLH ALL NIGHT. LESS WIND EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT MOST AIRFIELDS AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND POOR
TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...AJ/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB