Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
FXUS65 KPSR 282236
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
336 PM MST Fri Apr 28 2017
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather sections.
A dry cold front will continue to move southward through Arizona
early tonight, producing gusty north to northwest winds area-wide
through the late evening hours. Clear skies and diminishing wind is
expected on Saturday, however gusty north winds to 35 mph will
continue along the Colorado River Valley. Clear skies, light wind,
and a strong warming trend is expected next week.
The remainder of the afternoon and Tonight...
A strong mostly dry cold front is still poised to move south through
the south central AZ deserts and mountains, including the greater
Phoenix area later this afternoon. As this system approached from
the north today, increasing winds developed which peaked along the
Colorado River Valley earlier in the day and expected to peak on the
south central AZ deserts this evening. Red Flag Warnings and Wind
Advisories are still in effect for much of central and southern AZ
through this evening.
As for shower threats, the low level moisture surge from Mexico
forecast by the models has been half as much. Radar detected a few
showers over the far eastern parts of southern Gila County zone 24
at 2 PM MST, but no lightning yet. Shower/thundershower threats will
likely end before 5 pm MST with the frontal passage.
Otherwise clearing skies and diminishing wind is expected later
Saturday and Saturday night...
Saturday will be the coolest day after Fridays frontal passage.
Breezy conditions however are still forecast, strongest down the
Colorado River Valley where a Red Flag Warning is posted for
Sunday through Friday...
Dry northwest flow aloft, along with warmer temperatures are
forecast this period. The warmest temperatures will occur next
Wednesday through Friday with temperatures approaching the 100
degree mark on the lower deserts.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:
A dry cold front will push through south-central AZ including
metro Phoenix late this afternoon and evening. Surface wind
directions will still maintain a westerly component (mainly
northwest) with the front. The main window of strongest winds will
be 00Z-03Z with frequent gusts to 30 kts and occasional gusts of
35-40 kts. Anticipate visibilities occasionally dipping down as
low as 5SM with the strongest winds. Speeds will slowly begin to
to decrease after 03Z favoring trending toward north-northwest
directions. Directions will stay in the northwest quadrant
Saturday but with lighter speeds in the afternoon. Otherwise, no
significant clouds - just few-sct cumulus and exiting cirrus this
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona Including KIPL and KBLH:
Northerly winds will restrengthen during the 23Z-03Z with frequent
gusts of 30 kts and occasional gusts of 35-40 kts (less so over
the Imperial Valley) before beginning to weaken. In areas where
winds dip below 10 kts this evening, there could be LLWS
conditions between 03Z-06Z. Northerly winds strengthen again after
15Z with gusts of 25-30 kts after 17Z mainly over and near the
Lower Colorado River Valley and adjacent areas. Otherwise, clear
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
Monday through Thursday...
A ridge of high pressure will slowly build over the west next week
with the lower deserts making another run at 100 degrees during
the latter half of next week. No strong wind events are
anticipated. Minimum humidities will remain low - below 15% most
areas with low deserts generally single digits. Overnight recovery
will be modest.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through the middle of next
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ131>133.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/ this evening for AZZ533-
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530-552-557-558-
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Saturday for AZZ131.
CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ231.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ564-565-569-570.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ231.
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