Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 032208
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES WITH DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE DESERTS
RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES. MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL RETURN MAINLY
TO ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ALONG
WITH COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS. FORECAST HIGHS TUE AND WED WILL HIT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS 112 DEGREES F FOR PHOENIX
AND 114 FOR YUMA. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TUE
AND WED. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AZ THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIRECT A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST
AZ...WHICH SPREADS EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME BOTH MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ FROM THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY...RENEWING THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING PHOENIX.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS OVER MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.

MONDAY...

MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROF TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF AZ FROM MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HISTORICALLY HAVE FORECAST THESE INVERTED TROFS TO
MOVE INTO AZ A LITTLE TOO FAST. PERHAPS TUE MAY BE THE BIG DAY
INSTEAD. WE WILL REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY
INTO TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH
BASED CUMULUS IN THE CENTRAL DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT THEY WILL MAINLY STAY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL
TENDENCIES IN THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER
NOON...AND PERSISTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STARTING THURSDAY
MOISTURE FLOW FROM MEXICO WILL RETURN MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE DESERTS DURING THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZES
GUSTING AT TIMES UP TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY AND
     WEDNESDAY...AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY AND
     WEDNESDAY...CAZ031>033.





 &&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



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