Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 291633
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
932 AM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. SO...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC...WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND MODELS PORTRAY THE LOW TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS SUCH THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND ASCENT FOR ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE KEPT WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA...EVENTUALLY IMPORTED INTO NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF TEXAS.

SURFACE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...ON
AVERAGE RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
AND DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CIRRUS COVER MAY BE QUITE THICK AND OPAQUE
TO LIMIT FULL INSOLATION...MIXING LAYER THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL
QUITE WARM...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FACILITATE VERY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE DESERTS AND APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS AT SOME SITES.
INHERITED FORECAST GRID ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM CAPTURE THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. JET ENERGY AND ALL MEASURES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE ONLY
PALTRY MIXING RATIOS AND TOTAL COLUMN PWATS REMAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CNTRL AND NRN ARIZONA. SREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE
BEST PICTURE WITH ONLY REAL NOTABLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PART OF THE
STATES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLOW TO COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALOFT REMAINING MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...HOWEVER ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATER IN THE WEEK INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE
DEFINED/SHARPER WAVE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING
A MORE DISTINCT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALBEIT STILL IN THE ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY. THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS FRONT OR ANY OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...SO DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 29
----         --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1971
YUMA        100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY...LASTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE FLAT WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DIP SOME BY LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MORE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM
VALUES EACH DAY DIPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL NO BIG CONCERNS FOR
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS
WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


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