Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242314
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

...Pleasant Weather for Sunday...

Currently...all is quiet as the upper low over NE WY marches
steadily to the east. The trough axis to the south of the low will
cross I-25 this afternoon and will be east of our area by Sun
morning. The southern end of the trough is then expected to cut off
over S AZ/N Mexico...but will be too far south of us to affect our
area.

Light snow showers over the Central Mountains will continue through
this evening, especially over the Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges north
of Hgwy 50. But no widespread accums are expected. Will also leave
some low/isold POPs over Teller County...but any precip there should
be minimal overnight.

Main Wx story will be a cold front that is expected to cross the
Palmer Dvd late this afternoon or early evening. Winds behind the
front could be a bit gusty from the N to NE this evening, but will
gradually die down overnight. H7 temps behind the front will drop to
around 2 deg C over the Plains. This will result in a chilly
morning...with temps in the 30s and 40s across the CWA. Winds will
prevent temps from dropping too low. The San Luis Valley may get
below freezing...but after a widespread hard freeze last night no
headline will be issued tonight. Persons with sensitive plants
should be aware of the potential for sub-freezing temps and keep
plants protected.

The cold front will also result in a cool but pleasant day across
our area, with temps topping out around 70 degrees over the lower
Arkansas Region, and 50s-60s for the high valleys. With dry air
behind the front and increasing NVA, POPs will be low so will
keep POPs silent over even the mts Sun afternoon. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper level ridge wl build into CO the thru Tue, while an upr low
slowly moves north ovr Baja CA.  This wl keep the weather dry acrs
the forecast area.  On Mon, high temps should be around average and
are expected to warm to above average for Tue.

Wed the upper level ridge is forecast to shift eastward over the
plains states, while that upr low moves north into NV. This wl
bring an increase in mstr and chances for pcpn to the Continental
Divide. Temps on Wed should again be above average.

The GFS shows the upr low ovr NV becoming an open wave Wed night and
then moving into western CO by Thu morning, and then acrs the state
thru the day.  This wl bring chances for pcpn to all the mtns and
high valleys Thu, with isold to sct pcpn spreading to the eastern CO
plains in the late afternoon or early evening hours. Some pcpn wl
likely linger into the late night hours acrs the far southeastern
plains.  The ECMWF is a little slower moving this disturbance acrs
the state and therefore pcpn timing is a bit different from the GFS.

The ECMWF still has the disturbance ovr CO on Fri with chances for
pcpn acrs the forecast area.  The GFS moves the disturbance east of
the area for Fri and shows and upr trof acrs the wrn U.S. with
enough mstr ovr the mtns and high valleys for some pcpn, but keeps
the eastern plains dry.  Then on Sat another disturbance moves acrs
the state with isold pcpn chances.  High temps Thu through Sat are
expected to be a little above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Front is slightly delayed but should move through KCOS and KPUB in
the 00-02Z time frame...and winds could gust behind the front in the
20-30 Kt range...particularly at KCOS this evening. Winds will relax
tonight and lead to VFR conditions and generally light winds on
Sunday. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE


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