Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 052126
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
126 PM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE VALLEYS. THE
TYPICALLY COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS WILL DROP TO 5-15 DEGREES, WHILE
THE NEVADA VALLEYS COOL TO 15-25 DEGREES. BRONG

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN
BIG DIURNAL SWINGS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY, A MOISTURE PLUME (AROUND AN INCH OF PWAT) ADVANCES
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. ON TUESDAY THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE
BECOMES WRAPPED UP INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MAKES LANDFALL
NORTH OF THE SIERRA, MAINLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE THEN PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST ALONG
WITH THE PACIFIC JET, WHICH SHOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. THE JET AND MOISTURE SET UP FROM TAHOE
NORTHWARD SO IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH OF THERE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7000 FEET AS THE ORIGIN OF THE
JET/MOISTURE ARE SUBTROPICAL.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST GOES. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STATE OF
THE LOW, WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING A WEAKENED LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE AND
THE ECMWF KEEPING IT CLOSED OFF. MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS
IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEISHAHN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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