Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 292112
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
MARIE IS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS SWATH WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).

FOR SATURDAY, AN ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL PROVIDE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20 MPH
ALONG WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. AS A RESULT, LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA WHICH INCLUDES PYRAMID LAKE AND LAKE
TAHOE. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SIERRA. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...

RIDGING OVERHEAD ON LABOR DAY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD MID/LATE
WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PAC NW. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH
WILL DROP TOWARD OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXHIBIT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS, AFTN/EVE WINDS COULD
INCREASE. BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES I WON`T MAKE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
WIND FORECAST WHICH HAS LOW-END AFTERNOON BREEZES. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL, THOUGH THE GFS HAS SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTN RESULTING IN SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS. CS


.AVIATION...

GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS IS HIGH. EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
3-4Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR RNO/CXP AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80. SOME
POCKETS OF BLDU POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND BURNING MAN.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN SATURDAY WITH GUSTY W/SW WINDS FROM ROUGHLY
21Z-03Z. STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS LIKELY FROM I-80 SOUTH,
INCLUDING RNO/CXP/MMH. ON THE RIDGES FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING - SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR/EAST OF THE SIERRA. LOOKING AHEAD - LIGHT
N/NE WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION. CS


.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT WITH POOR TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THE POOREST
RECOVERIES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE WINDS WILL BE SLOWER
TO TAPER OFF.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE BETTER JET SUPPORT ON SATURDAY AS A JET DROPS INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO INDUCE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH BEHIND THE
DRY FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL POSE A THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH WINDS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
LOWER THAN 15%. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ZONES 450, 453, AND 459. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 458, BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE OR DURATION OF CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HUMIDITY INCREASES
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. WINDS TAPER OFF BY
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE
GREATLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE TYPICAL END-OF-SUMMER CONDITIONS
RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ001.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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