Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 262216
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
316 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016
High pressure will dominate northeast California and western
Nevada through the weekend, bringing near to slightly above
average temperatures and mainly light winds. High pressure breaks
down Monday and Tuesday for increasing breezes, with much cooler
temperatures likely by late week.
Some mostly flat cumulus have developed this afternoon in eastern
California south of highway 50 and near and south of I-80 in far
western Nevada. HRRR/NAM/GFS simulations still show the potential
for isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening in Mono and
perhaps far southwestern Mineral Counties. This cannot be ruled
out with another 2 hours or so of heating down there and a minor
convergence boundary in that area. Showers or storms could easily
drop wind gusts over 40-45 mph with a very dry sub-cloud layer.
Any deep convection should dissipate by around sunset.
For the weekend, high pressure builds overhead for dry conditions
with modest afternoon and evening zephyr breezes for northeast CA
and far western NV. High temperatures will remain near or slightly
above average, with cool to even chilly mornings as light winds
and clear overnight skies allow for good radiational cooling.
Monday, the upper ridge begins to shift off to the east for
increasing breezes by afternoon. -Snyder
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...
The GFS and ECMWF show fairly good consistency with a disturbance
moving overhead on Tuesday around a larger-scale trough setting up
near the West Coast. Tuesday may prove to be the breeziest day as
the incoming disturbance initiates a good thermal gradient across
the region. This will bring increased fire weather concerns with
gusts likely to increase to over 30 mph for at least a portion of
Wednesday through Friday, breezy conditions continue with
temperatures falling below average for late week as the Pac NW upper
trough edges closer. Some models even depict the chance for rain
north of Susanville and Gerlach by late Thursday and Friday.
There remains a small chance for thunderstorms over parts of Mono
County and southern Mineral County through sunset, mainly east
and south of Mono Lake. Any showers or thunderstorms could drop
wind gusts to 40 kts and create local shear and turbulence.
Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the weekend and into
early next week. Typical westerly afternoon winds with gusts 20-25
kts return by late Sunday and Monday, possibly increasing further
by Tuesday and Wednesday. Snyder/20
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