Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 292316
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms North of ktxk, keld and kmlu could near
the aforementioned sites later this evening, and have therefore
inserted at VCTS. Isolated thunderstorms have also developed West
of ktyr and kggg, so it is worth inserting a VCTS. Will of course
amend as necessary. Computer models hint at the shower and
thunderstorm activity diminishing shortly after sunset and this
is reflected in this TAF package. MVFR to IFR VIS due to fog may
occur overnight particularly at kmlu, ktxk, klfk and keld. Can not
rule out FEW-SCT MVFR cigs as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION... Low clouds West are lifting and thinning with mid
to upper 80s. 90 plus in much of our East as expected late this
morning. HRRR and GFS still bringing some development along I-30
down into Northern Caddo and Bossier 00-06z now. We will keep
slight and added chance pops late this afternoon as a weakness
seen on water vapor over NE TX attm moves overhead at peak
heating. Also a southward moving outflow out of AR.

Our surface winds remain light and all over the dial at 5mph, but
are E/SE up to 10kft. Any isolated or scattered Thunderstorms
would likely move West early and end up outflow driven to the NE
as they build into the mid levels steering in the Westerlies
remain strong from 15kft on up for any spreading tower anvils
where excellent outflow is from the W/NW at 70KTS. We are just
watching a new development West of Smith and Wood moving to the
NE. Tops already at 40kft. The water vapor is showing that
weakness aloft over NE TX plugging into our heating. If Thunder
roars, move indoors. Any storms would be brief half hour or so.

We are looking for increased coverage each day including our
national Memorial Day holiday with 2 or 3 out of 10 Old Glory`s
wet. The short work week that follows continues a wet trend and
even on into next weekend rainfall totals look manageable with
few issues in this highly evaporative heat. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

AVIATION...
All terminal locations enjoying vfr conditions this afternoon but
cu field is growing across the region. Latest watervapor imagery
showing a remnant mcv spinning across the Middle Red River Valley
of Ne Tx into S Ok and this feature will continue to move slowly
eastward throughout the afternoon/evening. Already seeing some
widely scattered convection across portions of Sw Ar and 12z progs
hinting at this possibility developing in the vicinity of the Txk
airport as well later this afternoon. Made mention of this in the
18z taf package with confidence not high enough to include any
similar mention across the other terminals. Any convection should
dissipate this evening to our north.

Added some vsby restrictions in a few terminals after midnight
which should hang around through 14z on Mon before vfr conditions
continue.

Winds should be light and variable for the remainder of the
day...becoming light or calm overnight with a southeast wind
prevailing through the morning hours Mon less than 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  88  70  87 /  20  20  20  30
MLU  70  90  69  89 /  10  30  20  30
DEQ  66  85  66  84 /  30  30  20  40
TXK  68  86  67  86 /  30  30  20  30
ELD  68  88  67  87 /  30  30  20  30
TYR  70  86  69  85 /  20  40  20  30
GGG  69  86  67  86 /  20  30  20  30
LFK  69  87  67  87 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/13



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