Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 110552
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 11/06Z TAFs, Low VFR conditions starting out this period
with lowering stratocumulus deck which has overtaken all sites.
Expect these ceilings to drop to MVFR around sunrise across our
east Texas terminals. This trend will continue farther east into
south Arkansas and north Louisiana through the mid-late morning
hours. South winds will also begin to really increase as surface
low pressure deepens out over the Plains with an approaching cold
front. Areas of patchy drizzle and light rain could develop in
response to the rapid surge in low level moisture, but have held
off on including any mention in the TAFs for now except for VCSH
mainly across our western sites from late morning through the
afternoon hours. Southerly winds during this timeframe will be
approaching 15 kts sustained speeds with higher gusts reaching or
exceeding 20-25 kts ahead of the cold front which will not reach
any of our sites until after this TAF period concludes at 12/06Z.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 925 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low level warm air advection is taking place under 5kft ceilings
this evening which is resulting in a slow to nearly no fall off on
evening temperatures. Cloud cover continues to advance eastward
and were covering all but our extreme eastern parishes in
Northeast Louisiana and that is where the coldest temperatures are
at this hour. These temperatures will warm later this evening once
the cloud cover moves into these locations. Elsewhere across the
remainder of the region...expect to see steady to slowly warming
temperatures overnight and for that reason...had to rerun hourly
temp grids so that they no longer represent a true diurnal falling
trend as is always the case overnight.

Cannot rule out some very light rain or drizzle after midnight
across our western zones as this is where the best isentropic lift
will be but precip if any would be very light and could even be
drizzle. A slight adjustment to dewpoints and overnight wind grids
as well as sky grids were the only additional chances made.
Updated forecast has already been sent.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  66  59  66 /  10  30  40  20
MLU  37  64  59  69 /  10  10  60  50
DEQ  43  60  47  57 /  20  40  50  10
TXK  45  63  53  59 /  10  40  50  10
ELD  38  62  55  61 /  10  30  60  30
TYR  47  69  54  63 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  49  68  57  65 /  10  40  30  10
LFK  49  70  61  70 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.