Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 191007
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
407 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NEWD FROM CNTRL TX AND INTO THE CWA. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER S
TX WILL TRACK GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GULF COAST AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER W TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-20 WHILE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN MORE SCT FARTHER N. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LVLS SHOULD ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
END RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT REMAINING OFF THE COAST AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEING A LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM DEEP E TX EWD INTO CNTRL LA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AND LIGHT
NELY WINDS PROVIDE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NIGHTTIME. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AND THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE KEPT POPS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE CLIMO AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY FRONT. POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW OF COLD AIR AT THE MOST. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK IN SE OK/SW AR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
COLD AIR WILL GO AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ARCTIC INTRUSION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  40  52  39  55 /  90  30  10  10  10
MLU  47  39  50  39  54 /  90  60  10  10  10
DEQ  48  36  49  35  51 /  40  10  10  10  10
TXK  45  37  50  36  53 /  60  20  10  10  10
ELD  45  36  50  36  53 /  70  30  10  10  10
TYR  51  40  52  40  54 /  80  10  10  10  10
GGG  50  40  52  39  54 /  80  20  10  10  10
LFK  53  42  52  42  56 / 100  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.