Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221850
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
150 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 22/18Z TAF period, a healthy cumulus field has developed
this afternoon across most terminals. Cloud tops on are looking
more impressive on visible satellite than previous days as an
upper level disturbance/easterly wave churns westward just to our
south in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This feature will help to
initiate convection this afternoon and further enhance the sea
breeze moving north toward our region. For this reason, VCTS is at
least warranted at SHV/MLU/LFK this afternoon with sites farther
north and west less likely to see any convection today but better
chances will come on Sunday afternoon. For now, will handle any
on-station convection with amendments as coverage should remain
isolated to widely scattered through early this evening. Light SW
winds will trend more southerly this afternoon around 6-8 kts and
then drop off this evening to less than 5 kts. Clouds overnight
should be limited to lingering cirrus from decaying convection.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

UPDATE...
15z observations running a few degrees below those we saw this
same time on Friday. Dewpoints are near to a degree or so higher
compared to 24hrs ago as well. Cu field is developing a little
earlier than Friday as well across our southern most zones and
latest meso analysis suggests this is where the higher PWATs are
located, in proximity to the upper level low across the S LA
coast. This is also where our highest pops are for today so for
that reason, not expecting to have to make any changes to the
ongoing forecast or the current Heat Advisory which was expanded
to include our entire region early this morning.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  76  91 /  20  40  30  40
MLU  76  93  75  91 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  74  95  75  92 /  10  30  40  40
TXK  75  94  76  90 /  20  40  30  40
ELD  76  92  75  90 /  20  40  30  40
TYR  77  93  76  92 /  20  40  30  40
GGG  77  93  76  91 /  20  40  30  40
LFK  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19/13



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