Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 131625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AS A COLD SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS RUNNING 13 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE RETURN OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER
TODAY...SO BELIEVE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO FOR THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

THE THREAT OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND THOUGH...AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE
REALLY ONLY SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...WITH
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY...AS THE
SECOND AND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AT IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING GIVEN OUR DRY START TO THE NEW YEAR. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. PALMER

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 736 AM CST SAT FEB 13)...
FOR THE 13/12Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES UNTIL AROUND AND AFTER 14/09-14/11Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. PRIOR VFR
CLOUDS/CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF DEEP EAST AND
EAST TEXAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS REMAINING
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER 14/00Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST 7-14 KNOTS TODAY...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS OVER PARTS OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A MORE TIGHTLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-12 KNOTS SUNDAY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  41  60  51 /   0   0  20  60
MLU  50  35  60  51 /   0   0  20  60
DEQ  50  35  52  43 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  50  38  55  46 /   0   0  20  60
ELD  47  33  56  47 /   0   0  20  60
TYR  59  50  65  52 /   0  10  20  60
GGG  57  44  63  52 /   0   0  20  60
LFK  62  47  67  56 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

28/06


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