Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSJT 142331
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Although ceilings have lifted this afternoon...expecting MVFR
conditions to return late this evening from south to north. Also
seeing scattered showers on radar which may briefly affect KSJT
and KBBD with slight reduced visibility and brief low clouds
between 0Z and 6Z. Winds will remain light and variable at less
than 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/99/99






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.