Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 012350
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites. Scattered
convection developing across parts of eastern and northeastern New
Mexico may move southeast into parts of the Texas Panhandle and
far west Texas, but is expected to dissipate to the west/northwest
of our area later tonight. Some high cloud cover emanating from
this convection will spill into our area tonight into Tuesday.
The GFS and NAM show similar differences to yesterday, regarding
potential low cloud development during the late night and early
morning hours for parts of our area. The NAM is more aggressive
with this scenario. However, given the lack of low cloud
development which occurred early this (Monday) morning, prefer
not to carry any ceilings. At this time, have a scattered low
cloud mention at our southern TAF sites between 11Z and 15Z.
Similar to what occurred today, may have a VFR-based afternoon
cumulus field over our far east and southeast counties on Tuesday.
South-southeast winds this evening will decrease tonight. South
winds will increase on Tuesday, with gusts to 20 knots expected
at KABI and KSJT by late morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015/
Latest model runs are bringing an upper disturbance embedded in the
north-northwest flow aloft a little further east of our eastern Big
Country tomorrow than previous runs. As a result, any associated
precipitation should remain east of the area and the current dry
forecast will continue. Generally light southerly surface winds will
continue through tomorrow with the 850mb thermal ridge over West
Texas edging a little further to the east. Therefore, expect warmer
temperatures than today with highs tomorrow in the upper 80s to
around 90. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s.
Dry conditions and a slight warming trend highlight the long term
forecast. Models continue to build an upper ridge over Texas by
late week. Temperature guidance numbers from the MEX MOS product
still look a little too warm. Plus, vegetation moisture release will
help moderate temperatures. Thus, highs mainly in the 90 to 95
range look good through this weekend and into the start of next
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 89 67 90 68 / 10 5 5 5 0
San Angelo 66 92 67 92 68 / 5 5 0 0 0
Junction 66 89 67 89 68 / 5 5 0 0 0