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000
FXUS64 KSJT 051157
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
555 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
expect mainly VFR conditions through much of today at the terminals.
the only exception will be across the Heartland with MVFR CIGS at
the KBBD terminal. The low levels will begin to saturate tonight and
stratus will develop with MVFR CIGS at all the terminals. The
combination of a very cold airmass and a strong upper level
disturbance moving by will result in periods of freezing rain and
sleet late this afternoon and tonight. The precipitation may start
as rain at the KSOA and KJCT terminals between 00Z and 06Z Friday.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

SHORT TERM...

Today through Friday

Through noon Friday, we`re expecting a combination of sleet and
freezing rain across West Central Texas. Models this cycle continue
to indicate the best chance for this wintry precipitation will be
overnight tonight. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will continue to
push south across Texas today. Very cold air moving into our area
will result in falling temperatures across most of West Central
Texas today. Model forecast soundings continue to indicate a warm
layer, centered around 750 mb, will persist through noon tomorrow
across most of West Central Texas. The cold, nearly-saturated, layer
just below this warm layer will remain below freezing overnight
tonight across all of West central Texas. Thus, we continue to
expect the main precipitation modes will be freezing rain or sleet
tonight. In addition, the greatest accumulations of ice or sleet
will be mainly across the big country, along and north of Interstate
20. Nevertheless, total accumulations of one quarter inch remain
possible for Brown, Coleman, and Runnels counties; so, we`ll
continue these counties in our Winter Storm Warning, beginning for
them at 6 pm CST this evening. Also, I continue to be concerned with
very cold and dangerous wind chill tonight, especially across the
Big Country where the wind chill after midnight tonight will likely
drop to near the zero mark.

Huber

Friday night through Saturday night

Models this cycle end precipitation across West Central Texas around
noon tomorrow. However, low-level moisture continues well into
Saturday night, when another passing upper trough may provide lift
to produce either freezing drizzle or light freezing rain Saturday
and Saturday night. What`s more, the wind chill overnight Friday
night will be even colder than tonight, especially across the Big
Country, Concho Valley, and much of the Heartland.

Huber

LONG TERM...

Sunday through Wednesday

With most of my focus on the short term, I didn`t spend much time on
the long term. Dry conditions and a very-slow-to-warm forecast looks
good through the middle of next week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  20  25  11  20 /  60  80  30  10  10
San Angelo  42  24  31  19  29 /  50  80  20  10  10
Junction  52  26  33  25  36 /  40  80  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon today to Noon CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to Noon CST Friday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Coleman...Runnels.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to Noon CST
Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coke...Concho...Crockett...
Irion...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...San Saba...
Schleicher...Sterling...Sutton...Tom Green.

&&

$$