Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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375
FXUS64 KSJT 081148
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
548 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Mainly MVFR stratus expected across West Central Texas terminals into
mid afternoon, although KSJT may briefly fall to IFR mid morning
as a band of light snow/freezing rain and sleet moves through.
KABI may see a few snow flurries. North winds will gust up to 25
KTS through Noon, with winds losing there gusty character in the
early afternoon. VFR conditions return mid to late afternoon
except KSOA where stratus may persist into the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

..Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the southern Big Country
and northern Concho Valley until 1 PM...

Short range models indicate the band of light rain and light sleet
from Sterling city and Robert Lee...to south of Abilene and Baird at
3 AM to persist until around Noon. With temperatures falling into
the upper 20s in this region this morning, bridges and overpasses
could become slick and icy. Ground temperatures are warm, however,
and roadways will not likely have problems. Light snow may mix in
with the freezing rain later this morning as colder air aloft brings
the atmosphere column below freezing. Precipitation amounts will be
light. If there is any snow or sleet accumulations occur. they would
be a tenth or two on grassy areas.

The rest of West Central Texas could a few snow flakes or sleet this
morning, but most will melt at this falls. The City of San Angelo
will likely fall to freezing around 9 AM and stay in the 30 to 32
range through the day, so no significant problems should occur.
Areas along the I-10 corridor will likely fall to 32 degrees around
noon and remain there through daylight hours.

Lows in the lower 20s are expected tonight as skies clear and winds
become light. A few protected areas may fall into the upper teens.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Temperatures will remain cold on Friday.  Afternoon highs are
expected to be in the 42-45 degree range across our area, despite an
overall decrease in cloud cover during the afternoon. A warming
trend in our temperatures will occur over the weekend. Will have
near zonal flow aloft and lee surface trough to our west. Gusty
south or south-southwest winds are expected on Saturday, with
increased surface pressure gradient across our area. With moistening
boundary layer, could have low cloud development/expansion across
some of our southern and eastern counties Saturday night.

A weak cold front is progged to arrive on Monday, bringing cooler
temperatures to mainly our northern counties. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF
indicate an arctic cold frontal passage in the Tuesday/Tuesday night
time frame, but differ on the details. The ECMWF is not as deep with
an upper trough across parts of the northern and central CONUS, and
brings a more shallow arctic front through our area on Tuesday. The
GFS has the frontal passage Tuesday night with stronger winds behind
the front, and has a strong surface high settling south into Texas
Wednesday night. The GFS ensemble has a large spread in temperatures
late Tuesday into Thursday. With the lack of model run consistency
and uncertainty in the details at this point, going with a consensus
blend on winds and temperatures Tuesday afternoon into Thursday.
Indications are for this front to be dry for west central Texas, and
for no precipitation to occur in our area during the work week.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  21  43  31 /  30   0   0   0
San Angelo  35  22  45  29 /  30   0   0   0
Junction  38  24  44  30 /  20   5   0   0
Brownwood  32  22  44  29 /  30   5   0   0
Sweetwater  28  23  42  30 /  30   0   0   0
Ozona       35  23  44  29 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Nolan-Runnels-Sterling-Taylor.

&&

$$

99/99/04



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