Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281936
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  77 101  76 100 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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