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000
FXUS64 KSJT 062311
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
511 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect light winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Upper low centered over the northern Baja Peninsula early this
afternoon will move east over southern Arizona by tomorrow
afternoon. Pseudo-zonal flow aloft over the forecast area this
afternoon will begin backing to the southwest overnight and
through the day tomorrow as the upper low tracks to the east.
Shower activity arising from disturbances in the southwest flow
aloft coupled with increasing Pacific moisture will spread over
northern Mexico and into the Bend Bend area by late tomorrow
evening. The forecast for our area will remain dry through
tomorrow. Clouds will begin moving into our area from the
southwest tonight, spreading over the entire forecast area by noon
tomorrow. Morning low temperatures will be much warmer than this
mornings with lower 30s expected. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be
restrained by the increasing cloud cover with highs in the upper
50s. Winds will be from the south to southeast 5 to 10 mph.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The focus in the long term will be rain chances beginning Saturday
night, and continuing through early next week.

Models are beginning to coalesce around a common solution this
weekend into early next week. The previously mentioned low over
the northern Baja Peninsula will begin moving toward the area
during the day Saturday. Dewpoints currently in the teens and 20s
will increase into the 40s by late Saturday night ahead of the
low. While the low moves toward the area, it will open up into a
wave, and an upper level jet streak will move across the area in
southwest flow providing lift for potential showers, mainly for
southern areas. The best lift from Saturday night into Sunday
morning will be south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. It
looks like there will be a lull in shower activity Sunday
afternoon as lift from this jet stream energy moves off to the
east. Then Sunday night into Monday, the trough axis will approach
and move through, bringing another potential round of showers.
Again, the best lift will be south of our area, but we should see
at least some coverage with this activity, with the best coverage
generally south of the I-20 corridor. Precipitation should end
Monday evening as the trough shifts off to the east.

A weak trough will hang around over the area through the second
half of next week. This will mainly just result in a slightly
slower warm-up for the area, and a few mid and upper level
clouds.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Monday with additional
cloud cover and potential showers over the area. Expect highs
mainly in the 50s through Monday, then as the rain and clouds move
out, temperatures should begin to warm Tuesday through the end of
the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  33  58  38  58  41 /   0   0  10  30  40
San Angelo  31  59  39  59  42 /   0   5  20  40  40
Junction  30  60  42  57  45 /   0   5  30  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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