440
FXUS64 KSJT 152322
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
622 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been extended until 9 PM CDT for the Northern
  Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, and Heartland.

- Scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, are expected
  this afternoon and early evening.

- A more settled pattern with a warming trend in temperatures is
  expected later this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Main area of rain this morning has broken up, but more scattered
showers and storms are starting to develop. Latest visible
satellite imagery is certainly more bubbly, and latest CAMs show
this scattered convection blossoming this afternoon across areas
mainly southeast of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. More isolated
activity is certainly possible as well across most of the
remainder of West Central Texas and this is already being noted by
the convection developing from Robert Lee to south of Sweetwater.

Air mass remains very moist (PWAT`s near 2 inches), so storms will
be very efficient rain producers. This will be offset by the
storms at least showing some decent movement (15kt movement with
the convection we have on the radar now). Still though, a quick 1
to 2 inches with this activity is possible, with areas seeing a
couple of these storms seeing totals for the afternoon of 3+
inches. Some areas can handle that much rain, but many others
would struggle with totals even less than that. Will extend the
Flood Watch through the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Models say that this will be the last day of convection. That is
probably a low confidence forecast. Air mass isn`t changing and
the mid/upper level shear axis will still persist across the
area. Models yesterday were not terribly aggressive for today
either, not until the convection south along the Texas/Mexico
border got going and produced another northward moving MCV. Will
need to watch down there this afternoon to make sure another
repeat doesn`t happen and spawn another northward moving MCV back
towards the area. Given the air mass, just won`t take very much
lift to produce another round of showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled
pattern and more of a upper level ridge over our area through this
weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and dry weather.
Expect highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Thursday, warming into
the mid 90s to around 100 across the western Big Country and
northwest Concho Valley early next week. However, expect humid
conditions to continue, with afternoon heat index values of 100
to 103 across the Big Country early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Storm coverage is slowly decreasing across our area this evening.
However, we could still see a storm or two near KABI, KBBD, or
KJCT for a few more hours. MVFR CIGs are expected to return
tomorrow morning to our 4 southern terminals. Ceilings will lift
in the late morning to early afternoon, leaving VFR conditions for
the rest of the day. Winds will become gusty for tomorrow morning
and afternoon, with gusts around 17 to 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  92  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo  72  90  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    72  89  68  90 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   73  90  71  92 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  72  94  72  95 /  10  10   0   0
Ozona       71  90  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       71  88  68  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Concho-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...AP