465
FXUS64 KSJT 060743
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
243 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low clouds will continue to stream north across West Central Texas
this morning, and persist through late morning or early
afternoon. After that, a dryline develop and push into the area.
Ahead of the dryline, an unstable air mass will prevail with CAPE
values well above 3000 J/KG. However, mid level temperatures have
warmed and are acting as a cap, and most if not all CAMs are
indicating that this cap will prevent convection across most of
the area. A little hesitant about this with many of the CAMs also
hinting at a mid level CU field developing across the eastern big
Country south into the Heartland, an indication the models are at
least trying to break through the cap. Will include some small
POPs a little farther west than the CAMs indicate just to be
safe, especially given the instability in place.

Otherwise, warm this afternoon with hottest temperatures across
the Concho Valley on the back side of the dryline. Highs in the
90s in those locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across West Central
Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal normals. Highs across the Big Country will be in the mid
80s to near 90, with highs elsewhere in the low to mid 90s. Expect
generally dry conditions to prevail.

On Thursday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern
Plains, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas
Thursday morning. Expect gusty north winds along with cooler
temperatures behind the front. Highs in the Big Country will be in
the mid 70s to near 80, with highs elsewhere in the mid 80s to near
90. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front,
mainly across our southeast counties. Overnight lows will be in the
50s to near 60. The cooler temperatures will continue into Friday,
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

This weekend, the GFS and ECMWF both show an upper level trough/low
developing across the Desert Southwest Saturday. This feature will
then track across the Southern Plains Sunday. The ECMWF is a bit
slower and deeper with this feature than the GFS, which results in a
wetter solution. Given the uncertainty, PoPs this weekend were kept
in the slight chance to low end chance category. Highs this weekend
will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Patchy MVFR and VFR cigs continue to spread northwest across West
Central Texas terminals early this morning, but satellite
indications are that the MVFR and IFR cigs should eventually
become more widespread before sunrise. These should lift and break
up through the morning and into the early afternoon with VFR
conditions returning for the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise, south to southeast winds this morning will shift
southwest and become more gusty my mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     88  57  88  69 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  91  60  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    88  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   84  63  88  69 /  20   0   0   0
Sweetwater  90  58  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       90  63  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       83  66  89  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07