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000
FXUS64 KSJT 132035
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Visible satellite imagery showing a cu field has developed across
mainly the western 2/3 of West Central Texas. Otherwise,
temperatures were mainly in the 90s with south to southeast winds.
Aloft, a high pressure ridge was over the southwest CONUS and a
weaker high center over southwest Texas.

For tonight, low level moisture will work back into the area by late
this evening, resulting in warm and humid conditions. Lows will be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. For Monday, another hot one with highs
in the mid to upper 90s, besides around 100 across the northeast
Big Country. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon across much of the Big Country as a cool front approaches
the area.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Models continue to develop a very strong upper level trough over
the eastern third of the CONUS for mid to late week, with a ridge
over the western states. A couple of shortwaves will top the
ridge, diving southeast across the Southern Plains. Additionally,
a series of cold fronts dropping south coincident with both the
strengthening eastern trough and the aforementioned shortwaves
spells increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms to
affect all of West Central Texas during this time. The models have
also shown good consistency over the last few runs with faster
frontal passages. The first front will enter Haskell and
Throckmorton counties Tuesday morning, slowing its progress as it
washes out near/just south of the Colorado River during the day.
Areas along and north of the front stand a better chance of
receiving rainfall, with slightly cooler temperatures due to
increased cloud cover. What`s left of the front will head back
north Wednesday as a warm front, with the northern half of the
area standing the best chance of receiving any rainfall.

Heading into Thursday, a stronger disturbance will drop southeast
through Kansas and Oklahoma, placing the area in the right entrance
region of the upper-level jet. As this occurs, a strong cold front
will drop south across the area. The PWATS near/above 1.7 inches
indicates locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the showers
and thunderstorms. The POPs were increased due to good upper level
dynamics and strong low level convergence. Thursday looks to be a
pleasant day temperature-wise if these trends continue, with highs
ranging from the lower 80s across the north, to near 90 degrees
along Interstate 10. The western ridge will build and strengthen
heading into the weekend, with afternoon highs climbing back into
the mid 90s, which is near normal for this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  70  92  72 /   5  10  30  30  30
San Angelo  70  99  72  96  72 /   5   5  10  20  20
Junction  69  96  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Doll