Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241345
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HISTORY OF GFS IS THAT IT HASN/T HANDLED THE HIGH
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS TO BE DOING SO NOW AND 12Z TJSJ EVEN ARRIVED WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN GFS EXPECTED WHERE SHALLOW WAS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. BUT SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE WELL TOWARDS THE SOUTH CURRENTLY AND
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA INCR IN AFT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS XPTD EARLIER.
VFR THRU MUCH OF AFT THEN IFR/MVFR DVLG IN SHRA WI AREAS OBSCD
MTNS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL INTO 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH COAST WHILE WINDS WILL
KICK UP. INCREASING SHOWERS AND MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/10




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.