Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AT 2 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
AND 60.3W OR NEAR 480 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR. TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING WAS OBSERVED OVER SAN SEBASTIAN...WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WIND DAMAGE WERE REPORTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXECUTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR 480 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PONCE THIS AFTERNOON.
BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. REMEMBER...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE
ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES
TO BECOME DANGEROUS. REFER TO LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS DUE SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL 21Z MAINLY OVER TJBQ. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
OTHER TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF TC
BERTHA WILL START TO IMPACT TNCM AND TKPK TONIGHT AND THE REST OF
THE TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...MVFR CONDS WITH
PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD. E-NE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS BELOW FL100 BCMG ESE AND HIGHER
AFTER 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 6 FT TONIGHT INCREASING 6-10 FT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK OF TC
BERTHA. SUSTAINED WINDS 40-45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY LATE SAT NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR SAINT
CROIX. THIS WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  82  78  87 / 100 100  90  20
STT  79  81  80  82 / 100 100  90  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

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