Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 275 MILES OF
GUADELOUPE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM
LATE TONIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AS TROPICAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...IS A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 275
MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITOR ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE THEIR FAMILY PLAN
READY...MAINLY PEOPLE LIVING NEAR CREEKS...SMALL STREAM AND
RIVERS. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST LOCAL UPDATED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 22/00. AFTER THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS USVI
AND PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. E-NE WINDS AT 15-30 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
FRIDAY...THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. REFER TO LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT (FFASJU) FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  86  78  88 /  60  90  80  80
STT  79  88  79  87 /  60  90  80  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
     VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
     VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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