Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 061903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER
THE WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY...SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR RETURNS TO
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS DID NOT LAST
LONGER OR WERE MORE WIDESPREAD BECAUSE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
CAUSE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WHAT WE
CAN EXPECT IS PASSING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR...THEN SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AS THE MOISTURE IS STILL
LIMITED...AS IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...STRONG UPPER JET IS CAUSING THE TOPICAL WAVE TO SHEAR
OFF AS IT PROVIDES A VERY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND SAHARAN DUST
NEARBY.

AFTER THE WAVE PASSES...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A PATCH OF MOISTURE COMES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
SOME PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS...USVI...AND NORTH AND EAST
PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ WHERE SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 06/20Z. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...ONLY
VCSH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  85  80  85 /  10  30  20  20
STT  80  81  81  81 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/25


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