Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 271103
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
403 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible over the
northern Sierra through Monday. Otherwise fair skies with above
normal temperatures through the middle of next week. Breezy north
winds today and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California under northwest flow aloft between a high
pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and a low pressure system
over the Pacific Northwest. Models show a weak shortwave trough
pivoting through California this afternoon and this may generate
enough instability for a few showers over the northern Sierra.
Otherwise...the forecast area will see fair skies with daytime
temperatures several degrees above normal. A weak low developing
over southern California will continue the threat of afternoon
showers or thunderstorms over the northern Sierra through the
weekend but otherwise the fair skies will continue. The northwest
flow aloft combined with a moderate northerly surface flow will
bring breezy north winds through Saturday. Upper ridge builds
along the west coast on Monday bringing more warming with daytime
highs expected to reach about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Still
can not rule out a slight threat of afternoon showers over the Sierra
but threat is diminishing as substance sets in over the region.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

High pressure ridging over NorCal on Tuesday will make it the
warmest day next week. Valley highs will peak in the mid to upper
90s with higher terrain in the 70s and 80s...about 8 to 13 degrees
above normal.

After Tuesday, temperatures will still be above normal, but they
will gradually cool as the ridge axis moves eastward. Daytime
highs will drop by a couple degrees each day through Thursday.

The ECMWF and GFS both show a large low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska that will be offshore from the West Coast Thursday
and Friday. Not much confidence in the low moving inland by Friday
so have kept the forecast dry.
JBB

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. A few afternoon and evening showers south of highway 88
along the Sierra crest today. Northerly mid morning to mid
afternoon gusts 15 to 20 kts are possible in the Northern
Sacramento Valley...KRDD and KRBL vicinity.
JBB
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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