Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 051556
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
856 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.Synopsis...
An upper level disturbance will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms across our region through the rest of this week.

.Short Term Discussion
Forecast still on track this morning. Only update was to increase
pops a bit here and there. Overall in the valley looks like a
50/50 chance of getting hit by a shower or thunderstorm as there
is plenty of deep thin cape but overall shear not impressive. This
should result in numerous showers and thunderstorms pulsing up and
down with little organization. Can`t rule out a few storms
approaching severe limits for hail as there is plenty of CAPE
around. Best chances once again in foothills and mountains and
have raised pops into categorical area for those areas. Rasch

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Forecast models are in good agreement to the overall upper level
flow pattern in the long term period with a shortwave trough feature
depicted to push southward out of the Pacific northwest through
portions of NorCal.  This upper level disturbance will bring some
chances for showers and storms, mainly for the mountains, for Monday
and Tuesday.  Models are hinting at some instability in the
atmospheric profile, so a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.
However, decided to not include thunder at this time due to
scattered nature of instability between the forecast models.

An upper level ridge will build into California from the eastern
Pacific by Wednesday.  As a result of more stable conditions, warm
and dry weather will return to the forecast area.  High temperatures
will return to above normal values in the mid to upper 80s to low
90s across the valley, and the mid 50s to lower 60s for the higher
elevations.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

A large upper level storm system will continue to bring overcast
conditions and chances for showers and thunderstorms to the
terminals during the current TAF period. Wind shifts could be
erratic in thunderstorms near the airports, but generally surface
winds should remain in the southerly direction.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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