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000
FXUS66 KSTO 260453
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
950 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

STRONG VORT MAX JUST OFF THE ORE COAST WILL BE ROTATING EWD ACROSS
ORE THRU SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...MFR RAOB SHOWS ONLY .57 IN PW THIS EVENING...BUT THE
DYNAMICS WERE STRONG ENOUGH EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRIGGER A FEW C-G
STRIKES JUST N OF OUR CWA BORDER. SATELLITE INDICATES THE SRN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD BAND SHOULD ROTATE EWD OVER OUR NRN MTNS OVERNITE AND
INTO SUN MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF 40N. BY SUN AFTERNOON THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MOVING E OF OUR CWA...AND THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE ERODING/DISSIPATING.

COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY
MILD...MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WITH 50S AND
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.   JHM

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE NEAR 150W WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
VALLEY AND SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
START TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND THE NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. FOR THE
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR WEST SLOPES WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA. THE BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA AND PLACES SOUTH IN THE
VALLEY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE REMAINING. NOT A LOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE VALLEY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TRACE
TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD FAIR
A LITTLE BETTER WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS OUR REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THESE DAYS WILL GENERALLY
BE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WED AND THURS WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT THE REGION WILL UNDERGO
A WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY THAT WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BASES AOA 10 KFT MOVING
ACROSS NRN MTN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW AND MOVES OVER THE AREA THRU SUN MORNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE. WIND GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15-25 KTS THROUGH DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$