Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 250210
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across
Pennsylvania and Hurricane Maria well off the coast of the
southeast. Our region remains in northeasterly flow. Upper level
data this evening and vapor imagery showed the presence of a weak
disturbance across Southern Mississippi. Earlier today a large
area of convection was over the offshore waters of the Florida
Panhandle. Radar data did show a weak mid level MCV moving toward
the Florida Panhandle coast and that seems to have since
weakened. It would not at all be surprising with the upper trough
remaining in place across the Central Gulf Coast States to see
some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over the waters
tonight. As a result, will keep 40-60 percent rain chances across
the Panhandle waters tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [747 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper level low situated near the central Gulf coast tomorrow
morning will slide eastward and over Florida on Tuesday. This
feature, combined with enough moisture (PW values of 1.7-1.9) will
allow for the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the western
half of the CWA on Monday. With the upper low shifting eastward on
Tuesday and winds becoming northerly, drier air will filter in with
PW values dropping to 1.3-1.6. This will help to limit convection
and thus PoPs are limited to 10% or less on Tuesday. Highs will
remain around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The upper low will meander in the eastern Gulf off the west coast
of Florida with drier air (PW around 1.2) in place for the
beginning of the long term. This will allow for a dry forecast and
do not have mentionable PoPs in the grids for Wednesday and
Thursday. A weak front late in the week/into the weekend will
allow for the return of 20-30% PoPs, but overall rain chances are
still on the lower side with the front. While temperatures for
the beginning of the long term will climb into the low 90s, highs
for the weekend are expected to drop into the low to mid 80s. Lows
in the lower 70s will drop into the 60s for Sunday and Monday
morning.


.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Tuesday] Convection near ECP will continue to weaken
this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period.


.MARINE...

East winds around 10 knots tonight will decrease to 5 to 10 knots
by Monday afternoon with winds 10 knots or less through mid week.
By the weekend, winds and seas will increase. While scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the western waters
again Monday, chances will decrease for mid week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Overall rainfall amounts through Monday will be limited to around
0.25 inches or less and these low amounts will not cause any
flooding issues. Much of the rest of the week will remain dry.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  88  69  91  71 /  10  10   0   0   0
Panama City   73  87  73  88  74 /  10  30  10  10   0
Dothan        68  88  67  91  69 /   0  20   0   0   0
Albany        69  90  67  91  70 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      68  88  67  89  70 /   0  10   0   0   0
Cross City    70  89  70  89  71 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  86  73  88  74 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.