Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 021738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday] Scattered thunderstorms may
impact the terminals this afternoon into the early evening, with
KTLH having the lowest probability for thunder. IFR cigs are
possible at all terminals overnight, with MVFR conditions
returning by mid-morning. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the area on Tuesday.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Slow-moving frontal boundary currently stretches from northwestern
Alabama into southern Mississippi. This boundary is forecast to
move slowly southeastward today as a shortwave aloft tracks
eastward through the southeastern states. Initially, most of the
convection should be well west of the forecast area. However, with
the approaching front and upper energy, along with a moist and
unstable boundary layer, scattered storms will likely develop this
afternoon and evening across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Guidance
also indicates that reasonably steep lapse rates will spread over
this area as well, raising the possibility of an isolated strong
to severe storm or two. Damaging winds and severe hail are the
mostly likely hazards from these storms, which may linger into
the evening hours before diminishing.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.

Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.

No concerns.

Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.



Tallahassee   69  84  64  81  58 /  20  70  30  10   0
Panama City   72  78  65  76  63 /  30  50  20  10   0
Dothan        68  80  58  77  57 /  40  50  10   0   0
Albany        68  82  59  78  56 /  40  60  20   0   0
Valdosta      69  84  63  79  56 /  20  70  40  10   0
Cross City    68  84  67  82  59 /  20  40  40  20  10
Apalachicola  72  80  66  78  63 /  20  50  30  10   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.



LONG TERM...Godsey
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