Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 310717
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region today,
with pwats running well over 2 inches. A surface front will approach
from the northwest, but stall before moving into the forecast area.
The combination of afternoon heating, the seabreeze, and the frontal
boundary should generate plenty of convection this afternoon with
likely PoPs across most of the region. Expect activity to begin
earlier in the day across the Florida Big Bend with increasing
southwesterly low-level flow. Inland areas will see activity
increase by mid to late afternoon.
High temperatures will reflect the expect onset of precip, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s in the Big Bend to the mid 90s
across inland areas of GA/AL.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A frontal zone off the Atlantic Coast and extending across the
Florida Peninsula will continue to serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development over the next couple of days. Most of the
model guidance shows the wet pattern likely to continue through
the short term period, though the NAM suggests some drier air
could at least get into our northwestern counties by Sunday.
With a very moist airmass in place, and generally weak steering
flow, storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, with the
potential for minor flooding, particularly across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend, where rain chances are highest. High temperatures
won`t be as hot as the past few days, given all the convection.
Highs in the mid 90s are expected across the northwestern portion
of our area, tapering down into the lower 90s in the Florida Big
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Model guidance shows the frontal zone will dissipate by Tuesday as
the subtropical ridge builds back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf. This should result in a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern with mainly
scattered afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 90s through the period.
[Through 06Z Saturday] Plentiful low level moisture will help to
produce occasional MVFR conditions at terminals early this morning.
Some brief IFR cigs are possible at KTLH. VFR conditions after
sunrise will give way to showers and thunderstorms once again this
afternoon into the early evening.
Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the
weekend...with high rain chances both day and night through
Monday. Cautionary level winds will be possible beginning Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday evening. High pressure will
build back over the marine area by Monday resulting in lighter
No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.
Rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range are possible over much
of the Southeast Florida Big Bend over the next couple of days
with isolated heavier totals possible. Lighter amounts are
expected across the northwestern zones. While these amounts will
result in some modest rises on the smaller creeks and streams
across the Florida Big Bend, river flooding is not expected.
However, isolated urban flooding is possible, especially with the
slower moving storms.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 90 76 93 74 93 / 60 40 60 50 50
Panama City 88 77 88 77 90 / 50 40 60 40 40
Dothan 93 74 95 72 94 / 60 40 40 20 30
Albany 94 75 95 73 94 / 50 40 40 20 30
Valdosta 90 75 93 74 93 / 60 40 70 40 50
Cross City 88 75 88 76 90 / 60 50 80 50 70
Apalachicola 88 79 87 78 87 / 60 40 70 50 50