Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 281112
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
612 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
[Through 12Z Sunday]...
Cig and vis restrictions have remained more scattered than what
was initially thought. The 12z updates carry tempo restrictions at
DHN and ABY, with all other terminals remaining VFR through the
TAF. Tonight, the best chance for restrictions look to be just east
of VLD and west of DHN and ECP.
.Prev Discussion [330 AM EST]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The upper level ridge will dampen a bit through the day, lowering
heights slightly across the Tri-State region. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in control with easterly flow continuing. The
weak, essentially non accumulating showers that have tried to reach
our easternmost GA and FL counties the past few days will be less
likely across south Georgia today as we`ll mix into some drier air
aloft. A brief sprinkle or two may be possible across the southeast
Big Bend late today. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday,
with mid to upper 70s across the region.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
While the upper level ridging remains in place over the Gulf of
Mexico, the upper level flow across the CWA is nearly zonal to begin
the short term. At the surface, evidence of a weak surface ridge is
still in place. The better moisture and activity remain north and
west of the CWA through the short term.
Temperatures over the next few days will remain in the mid to upper
70s, above normal, with a few places across the Big Bend area
expected to reach the lower 80s on Monday.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Fairly quiet to start the long term, but there are significant
differences between the models by mid week. The ECMWF pushes a
front into the CWA on Wednesday which would result in high
precipitation chances for the day. The GFS, however, weakens the
front as it pushes through the southeast, keeping the CWA dry mid
week. With uncertainty, have included slight chance to chance PoPs
The ECMWF clears the precipitation out for Thursday
however the GFS lifts a shortwave out of the Plains on Thursday
and into the TN/OH valleys on Friday, pushing precipitation
across the CWA. The GFS solution seems to be more similar to what
we`ve seen over the past few days so have continued with chance
PoPs late in the week. Precipitation should clear out for the
weekend with ridging building in.
Winds are initially at cautionary levels this morning across the
offshore waters but these stronger winds will quickly subside to
below cautionary levels by mid morning. Winds will remain below
cautionary levels through mid-week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
With no significant rain anticipated through early next week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 78 53 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 75 55 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 76 53 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 75 51 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 77 53 78 52 78 / 10 0 0 10 10
Cross City 79 55 79 54 80 / 20 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 75 57 75 57 75 / 0 0 0 10 10