Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 071427
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND FROM
YESTERDAY OF DECREASED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
GENERALLY WELL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
CHANCE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS SLIGHTLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED CONVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM, WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [627 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  20  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  20  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN


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