Area Forecast Discussion
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277
FXUS62 KTAE 261949
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An isolated shower of thunderstorm is possible through this evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland
and around 70 along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Expecting a dry and seasonably warm end to the work week, as the
region remains under the influence of a broad upper level ridge.
Although moisture will be limited, cannot rule out a stray afternoon
thunderstorm along the seabreeze, particularly in the western part
of the forecast area near Panama City. Afternoon high temperatures
near 90 inland, with lows in the mid 60s.

Global models remain in general agreement with keeping low pressure
currently north of the Bahamas well to the east of our forecast
area. As a result, not expecting much in terms of impacts locally.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The upper level trough associated with the tropical wave off the
northeast coast of Florida will remain over and just east of the
Florida peninsula with ridging on either side of it-over the Gulf of
Mexico and the Atlantic ocean. This trough will lift northward
slowly through the period up to the mid-Atlantic coastline. The
National Hurricane Center shows the tropical disturbance has a 70%
chance of formation over the next 5 days, however the most direct
impacts from this system will most likely be felt well to our east-
over the coastlines of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states.
Local chances for rain will remain low, in the 20-30% range through
the long term period. Warm temperatures will prevail with highs in
the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

A brief period of of MVFR/IFR vsbys/cigs will be possible around
daybreak at ECP. Otherwise, VFR is expected at all terminals
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf through
the weekend with easterly surges in winds over our eastern waters
during the overnight periods and onshore winds  along the coast in
the afternoon periods. Starting early next week, winds from the west
will prevail. Seas will remain 3 feet or less for the next several
days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It will continue to be very warm with a dry air mass from Friday
into Saturday. However, relative humidity will remain above 30
percent and red flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With prevailing dry conditions, local rivers will remain below
action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  89  65  90  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  83  69  83  71 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        66  88  66  87  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        66  89  64  88  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  88  62  89  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  88  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  69  81  69  82  70 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Moore/Bennett
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Moore/Bennett



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