Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 070118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front off the east coast of FL, and a dry airmass across much of
the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a vigorous
short wave trough over the central Gulf Coast, which was
translating quickly eastward. We adjusted the PoPs across portions
of our forecast area upward a bit based on recent radar and
satellite trends. In fact, the upper level trough has been
energetic enough to produce elevated thunderstorms near its core.
The rain will end before surface temperatures fall into the mid
30s, so we don`t expect any problems with freezing or frozen
precipitation.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /  20   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /  20   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  60   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  50   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE


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