Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 101713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1213 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions today will deteriorate tonight as low clouds move
into the TAF sites from east to west. This is expected to result
in MVFR cigs across the area and these clouds will persist into
Sunday. Northeast winds this afternoon will become more easterly



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Models show nearly zonal flow in the mid to upper levels across the
region. At the surface, as high pressure centered over the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys this morning slides further east, low level winds
veer to the northeast. This will bring an increase in moisture
across the southeast Florida Big Bend where dew points are forecast
to rise into the mid 30s to around 40 by this afternoon. Otherwise,
the air mass will be quite dry across the remainder of the CWA with
dew points in the 20s. It will continue to be cool with highs
in the 50s, except lower 60s across the southeast Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper tropospheric flow will be generally zonal, with a rather
weak short wave trough translating quickly eastward over the eastern
CONUS Sunday night and Monday. Low layer moisture will gradually
increase as a surface high pressure system translates eastward into
the western Atlantic Sunday afternoon. A cold front will approach
our region from the northwest Monday afternoon. Slight PoPs/light
QPF will begin as early as Sunday afternoon/evening as warm
advection/low-level isentropic ascent begins across north FL and
south GA. On Monday the highest rain chances (30-40%) will be from
Dothan and Albany northward, nearer to the approaching front and
greater moisture.

Increasing moisture later tonight will help limit the amount of
cooling, though areas around Dothan and Albany will likely be cold
enough (mid 30s) for frost, or perhaps even a brief light freeze.
Despite increasing clouds Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will
rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s, except around Dothan and
Albany where highs will only be in the lower to mid 60s as the
strongest warm advection remains just to the south. Lows Sunday
night will be in the 50s, with highs in the mid 70s Monday.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The 00 UTC global models are in good agreement in forecasting broad
upper-level cyclonic flow over much of the CONUS, transitioning to
an amplifying western CONUS long wave trough by week`s end. A weak
quasi-stationary front will be located across central AL and GA
through mid week, with sufficient deep layer moisture to support
rain chances given the right forcing. (This forcing will likely come
through difficult-to-forecast upper level disturbances interacting
with the surface front, and/or mesoscale forcing). The greatest PoPs
(40-50%) will be Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned surface
front will move southeastward through our forecast area late
Wednesday, followed by an end to the rain chances and cooler
temperatures. However, rain chances will return to the region by the
weekend as a warm front moves north through the area.


The advisory conditions have ended, but winds and seas will remain
rather elevated through early Sunday as winds veer to the east and
the high pressure system to our northwest moves east to the Mid
Atlantic coast. Winds will be fairly light from the south early next


Dry air will linger across the region today with minimum relative
humidity values briefly dropping below critical levels and winds may
also be breezy at times. However, high fuel moisture from recent
rains will preclude any red flag fire weather conditions. Relative
humidity values will increase into the 50s and 60s for Sunday and
approach 70 on Monday.


After the recent rapid rises in some of the local rivers, there are
no more sites in flood stage. This evening`s global model runs have
come into somewhat better agreement with regards to the QPF for next
week. While there are still timing and amount differences, the
probability for focused heavy rain over the same area that received
heavy rain earlier this week appears to be low. We expect average
QPF amounts to range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch, with locally higher
amounts, mainly north and west of Tallahassee. Elsewhere QPF
amounts are generally less than 0.50 inches.



Tallahassee   39  69  55  76  61 /   0  20  20  20  20
Panama City   44  67  60  73  64 /   0  10  20  20  20
Dothan        35  62  52  74  61 /   0  10  20  30  40
Albany        35  64  50  75  59 /   0  10  20  30  40
Valdosta      38  69  54  76  60 /   0  10  20  20  20
Cross City    42  74  56  77  59 /   0  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  46  67  61  73  64 /  10  20  20  20  20






SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
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