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000
FXUS65 KTFX 170002
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT Sun Mar 16 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...An upper level low pressure system over
the Pacific Northwest will approach the Rockies tonight. The
upper level jet will shift south by midnight, dropping farther
south over Southwest Montana by Monday. This will bring a colder
air mass and precipitation into the region as the associated cold
front moves from the Northern Rockies towards Southwest Montana.
Not much precip is expected ahead of the front and a brief period
of light rain may precede mostly snow after frontal passage. The
mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front and Central Montana will
likely see significant snowfall at the upper elevations. The
plains of Central Montana will see a few inches but strong winds
will create difficult conditions in snow and blowing snow. The
Havre area will have the best chance of mixed rain and snow during
the day with all locations south and west likely seeing
accumulating snow. Cold air will continue to move into the region
through the day Monday and max temps will not climb much above the
overnight lows. The system moves through in about 24 hours with
the bulk of moisture moving out of the region by later Tuesday
morning. Some lingering instability may generate a couple
afternoon showers Tuesday but widespread precipitation is not
expected.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Some slight drying conditions are
expected through Wednesday as a weak ridge builds back into the
area. Another round of moisture will move in late Wednesday night
as a shortwave moves across the state. Northwest flow aloft and
occasional shortwave energy will combine with ample Pacific moisture
to bring a chance for light snow showers through the remainder of
the long term forecast. Models continue to show slight differences
over timing of these weak disturbances...however confidence in a
cool and occasionally snowy extended period continues to increase.
Suk/mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Gusty winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains this evening before tapering after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail for the next 8 to 12 hours, then deteriorate
from north to south beginning late tonight along the Rocky Mountain
Front spreading into north-central and southwest Montana through
Monday as a cold front pushes through the region. Precipitation will
start as a mix of rain and snow at TAF sites before changing to all
snow between 15z and 18z Monday. Winds will also become northerly
with gusts up to 30kts, which will create low visibility in snow and
blowing snow. Periods of MVFR and IFR CIGS/VIS are likely in areas
of snow and mountains will become obscured. MLV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warm temperatures are forecast for today and the risk for ice
jams over Southwest Montana will continue. Cooler air will move
back into the area Monday along with rain and snow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  39  24  40 /  10 100  60  20
CTB  31  38  22  39 /  40 100  50  20
HLN  36  41  26  41 /  10 100  60  10
BZN  32  41  23  38 /  10 100  70  40
WEY  26  35  12  33 /  10  90  70  20
DLN  32  36  18  34 /  10  80  60  10
HVR  36  46  27  44 /  20 100  50  40
LWT  36  41  24  37 /  10 100  80  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Tuesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Liberty...Madison...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Liberty...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD ADVISORY until Monday afternoon for Jefferson.

&&

$$

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