Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 052329
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
430 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GET FLATTENED A BIT AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA
ROCKIES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. AS THE SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS WELL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO STRONG GUSTS AS COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR GOOD MIXING
OF THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
REPLACED BY A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE PLAINS VALID FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MT FROM MON THRU THU (WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR 60 DEGREES
ON TUE)...WITH 40S COMMON IN SOUTHWEST MT. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS/EC
BOTH HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT
THE TIMING/STRENGTH IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT...THUS I LEANED MORE
TOWARDS CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL)
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT FRIDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2328Z.

STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE ROCKIES. STRONG WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WITH GUST GREATER
THAN 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  45  26  42 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  36  42  25  41 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  28  40  22  39 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  19  37  15  34 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  18  27  10  28 /  40  50  30  10
DLN  24  35  16  35 /   0  30  10   0
HVR  33  47  25  42 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  30  39  21  35 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR MTZ011>015-044>047-049>055.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR MTZ009-010-048.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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