Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 011000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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