Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 050437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN


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