Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 260415
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 PM MST WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Some high-terrain breezes may continue overnight as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. Temperatures will be
cooler Thursday as this system passes through the state, and a
warming trend will prevail Friday into early next week.
.DISCUSSION...After a breezy afternoon, southwest winds are
continuing to calm down this evening. The exception is across the
southeast corner of the state, where elevated winds may continue for
another hour or two. The latest IR satellite imagery indicated clear
skies over the CWA, while WV imagery placed the low pressure system
(which induced today`s winds) near the AZ/CA/NV state triple point.
This low will continue to meander across AZ overnight and into
Thursday, with cooler daytime temperatures expected along with the
height falls. Winds will be more westerly to potentially
northwesterly Thursday afternoon and not as strong. There is a
slight chance this low will tap into limited moisture to produce a
shower or thunderstorm mainly across the White Mountains during the
afternoon hours as well. That said...the current forecast handles
the near term well and no updates are planned. Please see the
additional sections for more detail.
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
Clear to mostly clear skies will prevail through the period. Sfc
wind mainly less than 10 kts overnight becoming wly/nwly at 12-16
kts with higher gusts Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds will
occur near the International and New Mexico border areas, including
the KDUG/KSAD/KFHU/KALK terminals. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF ammendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will continue to settle down this evening
across the valleys, but will remain elevated across the higher
terrain as low pressure continues to approach. Expect weaker
westerly winds and a limited threat for mostly dry thunderstorms
over the White Mountains Thursday and Friday afternoon. Then, dry
and slightly cooler than normal conditions are expected this weekend
and early next week with lighter, more typical diurnal 20-ft winds.
.PREV DISCUSSION...A low pressure system approaching the area today
was producing strong and gusty winds across the area. The strong
wind combined with dry conditions had prompted a Red Flag Warning
for much of southeast Arizona through 7 pm mst this evening. A wind
advisory was also in effect through 7 pm mst this evening for
southern sections near the International Border. The low pressure
system will pass through Arizona tonight and Thursday. This will
result in cooler daytime temperatures tomorrow and a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the White Mountains. The region will be in
between low pressure systems this weekend with dry conditions
continuing and daytime temperatures warming a few degrees. Models
showed a weak low pressure trough moving into the desert southwest
early next week with very little affect on the weather.
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