Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 082045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry weather will
prevail through early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona will be under west northwest flow
aloft into the middle of next week. Weather systems will pass to
our north bringing us occasional mid to high level clouds,
especially Sunday into Tuesday. A sprinkle or flurry over the
Mogollon Rim during that time period would not be a surprise but
at this point no measurable precipitation is expected. Daytime
temperatures should generally be above normal starting Friday.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night except in locales where
southeast winds pick up late tonight. Those spots will not quite
dip to the readings experienced this morning.

High pressure will shift from the Pacific into northern Mexico Wed
and Thur which should bring SE AZ even warmer temperatures.
Looking beyond that, models are in fair agreement that a weather
system will begin to spread clouds into our area late Thursday and
could yield a round of light precipitation by Thursday night. Since
models have weakened this system a bit over the past couple of
runs, am not very confident that much precip will occur, but will
include a slight chance of showers Thursday night of next week in
far eastern areas.


.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
Clear skies and surface winds less than 12 kts will prevail
through the period. Favored areas for SE winds such as the Upper
Gila River Valley (in the vicinity of KSAD) could have speeds near
15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected into the middle of next
week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph over the next 7
days, except for some elevated east/southeast 20-foot winds into
Friday in portions of Cochise and Graham counties.






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