Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 032144
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION STARTED EARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN
PIMA AND COCHISE COUNTIES BETWEEN 6-9 AM MST. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS AND KITT
PEAK. THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WAS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

A STRONGER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN SONORA EARLY THIS MORNING INITIATED
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL SONORA EARLIER TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED 75-100 MILES S/SW OF NOGALES. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N/NE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE WELL
WITH EXTREMELY HIGH POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WET MICROBURST/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ON THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES FORECASTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END SCATTERED POP
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
SCT-NUM TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU 04/06Z WITH SCT
-SHRA FROM 04/06Z UNTIL 04/12Z GENERALLY EAST OF A KTUS/KOLS LINE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 04/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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