Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1144 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...The Spring Flood Potential is near normal for Southern New
England...

The Spring flood potential for southern New England is near
normal. The potential for flooding due to ice jams is over for the
season.

The following web site has a map depicting the flood potential
outlook...http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This is the eighth winter/spring flood potential outlook of the 2017
season.  This outlook is based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and snow
water equivalent, stream and river levels and the amount of ice
coverage, recent precipitation and temperatures, and expected
temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks.

...Recent Precipitation...

Southern New England has experienced below normal precipitation for
March month-to-date. Within MA, precipitation totals ranged mainly
between 2 and 4 inches. Across RI and northern CT, somewhat higher
liquid equivalent totals were noted, ranging from 3 to 4.5 inches.

Month-to-date precipitation was 0.75 to 1.5 inches below normal
for the majority of the region. The exception was within RI and
southeast MA, where precipitation was 1 to 2 inches below normal.

...Observed snow depths and water equivalents...

The ground was mainly bare across much of southern New England. Snow
depth of 2 to 7 inches was prevalent across north central
Massachusetts as well as the east slopes of the Berkshires. Where
this snow pack remained, the water content ranged from 1 to 2
inches, with localized higher water content nearing 3 inches. Snow
depth and extent were slightly above normal for the end of March.

...River and Ice Conditions...

As of March 30, river flows were predominantly normal. There are no
ice issues on the rivers and streams of Southern New England.
The flooding potential due to ice jams is over for this season.

...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture was slightly below normal for this time of year. Soils
were thawed.

USGS ground water wells transmitting in real-time were at normal to
below normal levels.

...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

A low pressure system is expected to bring around 1.5 inches of
liquid equivalent precipitation to southern New England during
Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is expected to be a wintry mix
of rain, snow and sleet. As of March 30, winter weather headlines
were in effect for portions of southern New England. Please stay
tuned for updates regarding this storm via NOAA Weather
Radio, NWS Taunton`s web site http://weather.gov/boston, and/or
local media for updates for this event.

With forecast highs in the 40s to mid 50s from Sunday through the
next workweek, any snow pack in place, or established with the
Friday-Saturday system, is expected to see a steady and gradual
melt.

Another low pressure system could affect southern New England
during early next week, with the potential for around an inch of
liquid equivalent. At this time, this system is expected to be
predominantly rainfall- stay tuned for updates as we get closer to
this second precipitation event.

Looking farther ahead, the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14
Day Outlook covering the period from April 6 to 12, indicates a
likelihood for above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

...Summary...

Based on information available at this time, the spring flood
potential is near normal within southern New England.

Rivers and streams were mainly at normal flows, and ground water was
normal to below normal. The remaining snow pack is slightly above
normal for late March, and the system affecting our area on
Friday into Saturday could add to the snow pack within interior
southern New England. However with mild daytime highs in the
forecast from Sunday through the next workweek, the snow pack is
expected to see a steady and gradual melt. Another system could
bring around an inch of rainfall early next week, and the April 6
to 12 could bring above normal precipitation.

Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the
year. Those with interests along rivers and streams should check the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, which highlights any potential flood
events over the next 7 days. Go to http://weather.gov/boston and
click on the option Hazards, then click on Local Outlook.

The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, April 13.

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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