Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2016 HAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE RISK IN
THE SHORT-TERM AND AVERAGE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE SPRING...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2016...THERE IS AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
RISK FOR FLOODING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. RECENT PRECIPITATION
HAS LEFT AREA SOILS VERY MOIST...AND STREAM FLOWS REMAIN ELEVATED.
THIS HAS INCREASED THE OVER-ALL FLOOD RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH AN AVERAGE FLOOD RISK FOR THE LONG-TERM.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND SOIL
MOISTURE REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE SPRING
GREEN UP OCCURS...VEGETATION WILL BEGIN TO USE THIS MOISTURE...AND
MORE RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND
RUNOFF OCCURS. THEREFORE...ONCE PLANTS AND TREES ARE NO LONGER
DORMANT OUR FLOOD RISK BECOMES AVERAGE.

THIS WINTER...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DECEMBER
2015 RECORDING AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS UNUSUALLY WARM WINTER HAS PREVENTED ANY FROZEN GROUND
ISSUES...AND THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
SNOW OR ICE PROBLEMS DEVELOPING.

WITH PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER AVERAGING NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL...AREA STREAM FLOWS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE ALSO AVERAGING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS COULD LEAD
TO FURTHER RISES ON AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN...THE DUCK RIVER BASIN...AND THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED
TRIBUTARIES TO THESE RIVERS.

...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-STATE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

FOR THE SPRING MONTHS OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FORECASTS INDICATE THERE ARE EQUAL PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

...2016 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE OVERALL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SHORT-
TERM DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS...AND AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ONCE
GREEN UP OCCURS EXPECT AN AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPRING.

$$

LAROSA



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