Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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FGUS76 KSEW 051235
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WAC009-027-031-033-035-041-045-053-057-061-067-073-060100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
435 AM PST THU FEB 5 2015

...FIVE DAYS OF INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING LATE
THIS WEEK...

THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THIS WEEK...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST TWO WAVES OF WET WEATHER...MAINLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...COULD BRING ENOUGH RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS TO CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THAT RIVER REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COMING IN A SERIES OF
WAVES...WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE BREAKS MAY ALLOW RIVERS
OTHER THAN THE SKOKOMISH TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF WITHOUT
FLOODING...OR AT LEAST WITH ONLY MINOR FLOODING.

LATEST RIVER MODELS SHOW MINOR FLOODING ON A FEW RIVERS...
INCLUDING THE SKAGIT...NISQUALLY...AND PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING
STARTING AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 120-HOUR TOTAL...5 DAYS OF
RAIN... STILL SHOWS 10-13 INCH BULLS EYES OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 1-4 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
ABOVE 5000 FEET THE ENTIRE TIME WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO 7000
FEET OR HIGHER. BREAKS IN THE RAIN MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT ONLY
MINOR FLOODING ON ONLY A FEW RIVERS IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME...BUT OTHER OUTCOMES ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND NO FLOODING. MAJOR FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

RIVERS FLOWING OFF BOTH THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS COULD FLOOD.
THERE COULD ALSO BE FLOODING ON RIVERS THAT DO NOT FLOW OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE CHEHALIS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. LOWLAND RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS
NEAR SMALL STREAMS.

$$







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