Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 272010
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
An active synoptic pattern in the western U.S. will foster periods
of elevated to critical fire weather conditions in portions of the
southwest, southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains throughout the
forecast period. A significant cut off low, initially over the New
Mexico/Texas border region on D3/Wed will migrate slowly eastward
toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Fri. As this occurs,
another more powerful mid-level low will amplify across the Lower
Colorado River Valley, reaching the southern Rockies by D6/Sat and
eventually the Plains by D7/Sun. This low will aid in spreading
very strong mid-level flow across the southwest and southern
Rockies, coincident with a heightened fire weather threat in parts
of those areas around that time frame.
...D3/Wed - Southwest Texas, far southern New Mexico, and far
The combination of a surface low over northwest Texas and strong
mid-level flow will continue to foster critical/near-critical wind
fields in portions of the region. RH values should exhibit a
substantial gradient from north to south across the region as cooler
air filters into the area behind a cold front. Generally, critical
conditions remain likely in higher elevations of southwest Texas
that remain undisturbed from areas of wetting rains and receive
plenty of insolation throughout the day. Near-critical conditions
may exist north and west of this area (as far west as southeastern
Arizona) although RH values should be higher in these regions.
...D4/Thu - Much of New Mexico, southwest Texas, and southeastern
Low level flow should slacken some as the region resides beneath
shortwave ridging between a departing system near the Missouri
Ozarks and another approaching system over California/Nevada.
Still, enough low-level flow will reside within a persistently dry
airmass to foster the development of widespread elevated fire
weather conditions, with locally critical conditions possible in
...D5/Fri - West Texas, much of New Mexico, and far southeastern
Westerly low-level flow should increase substantially as the region
is influenced by strengthening mid-level flow aloft and substantial
cyclogenesis over eastern New Mexico. The continued dry airmass
over the region, along with areas of dry fuels, should foster
widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon, with higher-end critical conditions possible over
southern New Mexico and far west Texas.
...D6/Sat through D8/Mon Apr 3 - Southeastern New Mexico and west
Models begin to diverge substantially with regard to handling of the
southwestern U.S. closed low. Nevertheless, the overall pattern
appears supportive of a few areas of continued westerly low-level
flow and low RH. Assuming dry fuels and a lack of antecedent
rainfall, it appears that a few areas of at least elevated fire
weather conditions are likely especially on D6/Sat and D7/Sun.
These conditions will likely remain possible on D8/Mon, although
specific areas are difficult to point out at this time frame and
highlights will be withheld at this time frame as a result.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...