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000
FNUS28 KWNS 292201
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SWRN U.S. AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE EXTENDED FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.
MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
CONUS...AND STRONG LOW- TO MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING ONE OF THESE
TROUGHS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN/SRN CONUS FROM D4/WED
THROUGH D6/FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ESPECIALLY ON D4/WED AND D5/THU.

...D3/TUE: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES
ON D3/TUE...ENHANCED LOW- TO MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NRN
GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED POCKETS
OF STRONG WINDS/LOWERED RH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TUE AFTERNOON...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND FINE-FUEL DRYNESS TO INTRODUCE A 70
PERCENT AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DID ADD A 40 PERCENT AREA TO
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS SHOULD
HELP RH VALUES FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
WINDS. THIS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND N-CNTRL/ERN WY TUE AFTERNOON.

...D4/WED: PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY ON D4/WED SHOULD
PROGRESS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY D5/THU. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY. STRONG NWLY WINDS ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH REDUCED RH VALUES TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S
MAY LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...AND
THEREFORE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED A 70 PERCENT AREA AT THIS TIME.

...D4/WED - D5/THU: MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D4/WED INTO
D5/THU...AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A
MULTIDAY PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WLY FLOW AT
THE SFC WED AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM ERN AZ ACROSS NM AND INTO THE
WRN TX PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY ASSIST IN DRYING/WARMING THE LOW LEVELS
SUCH THAT RH VALUES FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MORE THAN THREE
HOURS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES
REGARDING FUEL RECEPTIVENESS...A 70 PERCENT AREA IMPLYING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION ON
D4/WED. NOT ALL AREAS WITHIN THE 70 PERCENT DESIGNATION HAVE READY
FUELS...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW IS STILL ON THE
GROUND...BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST
PARAMETERS...A 70 PERCENT AREA IS JUSTIFIED.

BASED ON THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...A MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON D5/THU
ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS D4/WED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING THU AFTERNOON AS A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE...A 70
PERCENT AREA HAS ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED FOR D5/THU FOR MUCH OF ERN
AZ...SERN UT...SWRN WY...MOST OF NM...AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX. FUELS
WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF PRE-CONDITIONING FROM D4/WED...AND
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE LAST 7
DAYS...FINE FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO BURN. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH 70 PERCENT AREAS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...D6/FRI: MUCH OF NM AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON D4/WED
AND D5/THU SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER THE PLAINS ON D6/FRI. A
RESIDUAL AREA OF ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF NM AND PORTIONS OF
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH
ASSOCIATED WARMING/DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...RH VALUES MAY
FALL NEAR/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 40 PERCENT AREA
FOR THIS REGION WHILE EXPANDING IT SLIGHTLY EWD TO ENCOMPASS A
LARGER PORTION OF WRN TX. A 70 PERCENT DELINEATION MAY BE NEEDED IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
ACROSS THIS REGION INCREASES.

..GLEASON.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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