Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 051858
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...SRN/CNTRL
NM...AND FAR W TX...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY WWD ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN AZ. THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SWLY SFC
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH OF 10-15 PERCENT
AMIDST DRY FUELS ACROSS AREAS ADDED TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SERN NM INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING OVER THIS AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING...INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE...OFFERS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS. SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER FLOW/STORM MOTIONS...ALONG WITH
PW AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCH AND AMPLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...WILL
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

...PORTIONS OF SRN FL...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 05/05/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
D2/FRI. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
WRN CONUS WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON FROM
SERN AZ INTO PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX. SUSTAINED SLY TO
SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN
CONUS MOVES OVER THIS REGION. DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF THE ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC. SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF ERN AZ...NM...
AND FAR W TX. LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FINE FUELS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. WHILE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON D2/FRI ACROSS
PARTS OF NM...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION /IF IT OCCURS AT
ALL/ SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR
PORTIONS OF NM AT THIS TIME.

...PORTIONS OF SRN FL...
LOCALLY ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN FL. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE REGION...RH VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. IN ADDITION...FUELS MAY ALSO
NOT BE OVERLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS...AS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
SRN FL RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ON WED. GIVEN THESE
LIMITING FACTORS...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED AREA FOR ANY
PORTION OF SRN FL AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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