Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 291921
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GENERALLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO BOTH THE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AND ELEVATED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NWRN GREAT BASIN. THE AVAILABILITY OF SUFFICIENT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/E OF THE CASCADE CREST TO INDUCE UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF CHARGE SEPARATION REMAINS QUESTIONABLE BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THIS REGION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD
ENCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL
SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM OCCUR.

LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN NV INTO SERN ORE AND SWRN ID
TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH FOR
THREE OR MORE HOURS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A CRITICAL
DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON.. 08/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN CA/WRN
ORE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. INCREASED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
DISTURBANCE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN ORE TO NRN NV AND
VICINITY...AS A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO TRACKS
NEWD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL...AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN AREAS
OF LOW RH -- WITH THE LOWEST RH PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO PORTIONS OF
THE WRN CONUS.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/SRN ORE...SWRN ID...NRN NV...NERN CA...
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN ORE...SWRN ID...NRN NV...AND NERN CA. IN THESE
AREAS...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING INTO ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 5-15 PERCENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE LOWEST RH
AT PEAK HEATING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

ALSO...A COMPACT CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTURE PRECEDING THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO YIELD NON-ZERO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN
PORTIONS OF ORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE...AND SOMEWHAT
DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER/LOWER SFC RH.
HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY/ASCENT...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...COULD EXIST
WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH NERN ORE.
FURTHERMORE...AMPLE FLOW THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER WILL
BOLSTER THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS BY ENCOURAGING
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ULTIMATELY...THERE EXISTS APPRECIABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR D2/TUE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE
DRY-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED -- THOUGH SPATIALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOST-LIKELY CORRIDOR BASED ON THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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