Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
389
AGUS74 KFWR 241623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

                    VALID JULY 24 THROUGH JULY 29

...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH SOME ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA
AS AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere is centered over New Mexico this morning. This ridge has
brought hot and dry conditions to the WGRFC area the past several
days. Hydrologically, we have been experiencing drying soils after
such a wet Spring.  For today, scattered showers or thundershowers
will be possible over east and southeast Texas into Louisiana as
boundaries left over from yesterday`s storms combine with daytime
heating to produce new areas of rain.  An isolated thundershower is
also possible along the Gulf coast due to the sea breeze front.  And,
isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be fairly likely
over portions of western and northern New Mexico and south central
Colorado, mainly due daytime heating and orographic lift near the
mountains.  Mean areal precipitation amounts will be minimal.

Starting Monday and continuing into this week, the ridge of high
pressure is forecast to gradually shrink, weaken some, and shift
slightly to the west.  While this change appears subtle, this shift
will allow the rain chances to increase across parts of our region.
The most favored area for rain will be over eastern Texas and
Louisiana. An easterly wave of low pressure is forecast to move
across Louisiana tonight and into east Texas on Monday.  This, along
with some increasing moisture will lead to at least scattered showers
and thunderstorms.  Some rainfall amounts of over 1.00 inch are
possible over the Toledo Bend country into northwest Louisiana. By
Tuesday the easterly wave will slide southwestward into central
Texas.  This wave will increase the rain chances from the Hill
country to east Texas, meaning rain is possible in locations that
have seen little or no rain so far this month.  There also could be
residual showers along the coast with the sea breeze front.

By Wednesday a second easterly wave of low pressure will move
across southeast Texas and will likely result in some scattered
showers and thunderstorms for southern and eastern Texas and the
Gulf coast Wednesday into Friday morning.  The rain chances will also
continue over parts of New Mexico and Colorado due to the monsoon
through Thursday, but this rain may subside by Friday.  Elsewhere
over Texas, especially the western parts of north Texas, very warm
and mostly dry weather will persist through the end of the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado
into northern New Mexico, as well as over extreme east Texas into
Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for
most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, the upper Texas Gulf coast, and
the eastern quarter of Texas into Louisiana.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, as well as over the eastern third of Texas into
most of Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch,
are forecast over extreme east Texas into western Louisiana from
Shreveport LA to Nacogdoches TX.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for the northeastern two thirds of Texas, most
of New Mexico, much of Colorado, and Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of New Mexico into southern Colorado, as
well as over the southeast half of Texas into western Louisiana.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the
remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, as well as over southern and eastern Texas into Louisiana.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the
remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast
Texas and western Louisiana.  This will keep drought out of this
region, but only minor runoff is anticipated.  The lack of
significant rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying in most
areas through this forecast period and no significant runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near
Carrollton (CART2). Lake Lewisville and Lake Grapevine have decreased
their releases, so CART2 has dropped to near action stage and will
stay at this level until additional decreases in upstream reservoir
releases occur.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond
(RMOT2) and are expected to continue for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half
of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the
next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over
this time frame.  Daily convective activity can cause minor rises
anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas will not see
significant convective activity this week.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.