Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301656
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

                     VALID MAY 30 THROUGH JUNE 4

...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
After the heavy rains over a large portion of the WGRFC area, lots of
flash flooding and additional river rises occurred once again.
Another complex of thunderstorms developed over the Texas Panhandle
yesterday and moved over North Texas once again. this squall line
had intense rainfall lasting only for a few minutes due to the
speed of the storm front.  Some scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to continue on and off for the remainder of the day,
however no widespread rainfall is expected until later this
evening.  By late tonight through tomorrow morning, a cold front is
forecast to approach the WGRFC area from the northwest. As it
moves across Texas tonight, another 0.50 to 1.00 inch is expected
across North and Northwest Texas. Thereafter, rainfall is expected to
spread across Central and East Texas as the front continues moving
southward.

The latest forecast models are still indicating a little relief
insight for next week. Some rainfall is expected for the next
several days, however widespread rainfall is not expected after
Sunday. Even though significant rainfall is not forecast next week,
moderate and major flooding is expected to continue for the next
couple of weeks.  See the hydrologic discussion section for more
details.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for the DFW Metroplex
and points to the east.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are
forecast for the remaining eastern half of Texas with the heavier
amounts forecast for the coastal regions from Victoria through
Beaumont.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the southeastern portion of Texas covering the
coast from Victoria through Beaumont.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought conditions have rapicly improved across all regions of the
WGRFC area. Recent precipitation events since Memorial Day have
brought drought relief throughout Texas.  In Texas, only about
3% of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions,
and extreme to exceptional drought conditions are no longer being
observed. In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state
(western New mexico) is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%),
and they also are free from extreme or exceptional drought
conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas have levels which have risen
rapidly over the past 3 weeks due to recent heavy rainfall, and many
lakes, especially in the eastern half of Texas, are full and are
releasing water. The rainfall expected over the next five days over
Texas will be not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.
Elsewhere over the WGRFC area no significant runoff is anticipated.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The flood wave is cresting at Victoria (VICT2) and will move toward
Bloomington (DUPT2) through early next week.

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Cotulla is beginning to drop off as the routed water looks like its
made its way through the area.  Downstream at Tilden  (TILT2) the
routed water appears to have crested but will remain elevated for
the forecast period.  The Frio River at Tilden (TIDT2) is also on
the rise and should crest in a couple of days.  Downstream Lake
Corpus Cristi is reducing its releases so the recession will slowly
continue downstream and Bluntzer (CBVT2) and Calallen (CAAT2).

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near Porter (PTET2) and
Humble (HMMT2) have crested and are slowly falling.  Other creeks
in the area and the East Fork of the San Jacinto have also crested.
Future rainfall may produce slight rises in the area.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The flood wave from earlier rainfall is moving through the Wharton
(WHAT2) area and will continue slowly tracking downstream.  While
secondary rises are possible, the significant flood threat should
diminish this weekend.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Another in a long line of storms has moved through the headwaters of
the Trinity River overnight causing additional rises and continued
flooding. Non-flood control reservoirs are passing inflows
downstream to maintain their lakes at safe levels. All of the flood
control lakes are into their flood pools and several have reached,
or are forecasted to reach, the top of their flood pools and have
started required releases or spills. Major flooding continues from
Carrolton (CART2) through Dallas (DALT2) and all the way to
Oakmont/Long Lake (LOLT2). The East Fork of the Trinity River at
Crandall (CNLT2) is rapidly rising and is expected to rise into
major flood category overnight as the extreme flash flood event east
of Dallas yesterday moves downstream, through Ray Hubbard Reservoir
(FRHT2).

Lake Livingston continues large releases which will keep the
downstream points in flood with Liberty (LBYT2) still in major flood
level.  No reduction is expected for at least a week.

Additional rises may occur from one last heavy rain event starting
this morning and continuing this afternoon as a weak cold front
moves through north Texas.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy, localized rain fell, once again over parts of the Brazos
River system.  This is causing rises at isolated locations upstream
of Possum Kingdom Lake.  Rises are also occurring on the Brazos
downstream of Possum Kingdom for Palo Pinto, Dennis, and the
Horseshoe Bend area due to rainfall from 2 nights ago.

Major flooding is forecast to occur on the lower Brazos River at
Richmond (RMOT2).  The river at this location is forecast to crest
around 50 Sunday.  At a river level of 50.2, the Fort Bend Levee
Improvement District enters into critical flood fighting operations.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with several
locations currently in flood.  The Neches River near Alto (ATOT2) is
at moderate levels.  Nearly every forecast point within  the Neches
River system is above flood stage or forecast to rise above flood
stage. Lakes in the region are all full and are passing their
inflows unless designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen Lake is
scheduled to increase their releases later today which will elevate
flows downstream.  As soon as the amount is finalized forecasts will
be updated.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The upper portion of the basin recieved a small amount of
precipitation over night, but it did not impact the watersheds
which are currently elevated. Lake Fork has shut off releases so
points downstream are forecasted to drop off in the future.  Hawkins
and Gladewater do remain on the rise but will crest in a few days in
moderate flood.  Below Toledo Bend Reservoir, Bon Weir continues to
trend downward with the cut back of releases from Toledo Bend and
Deweyville is currently cresting in moderate flood.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Cibolo Creek and the San Antonio River near Goliad will show slight
rises from recemt rainfall, but will crest well below levels from
previous rain events.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Moderate flooding is expected across the San Bernard Basin.  East
Bernard (EBBT2) has crested and the flood wave will crest at Boling
(BOLT2) this weekend.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Flooding is mostly in recession throughout the basin.  Ganado
(GNDT2) is the only location currenly above bankfull.  This reach of
the river should be below bankfull earlty next week.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing flooding. An expected drying trend over the next week will
give us a chance to route all this water downstream.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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