Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281545
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1044 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

                   VALID MARCH 28 THROUGH APRIL 2

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND AGAIN
LATE THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A weak ridge of high pressure is located over east Texas this
morning.  This brought drier weather to most of the WGRFC region the
past 24 hours.  Some residual showers occurred last evening over
the Texas Hill Country and over extreme east Texas into Louisiana.
This morning we are seeing the return of Gulf moisture to the area
as the next strong storm system approaches. A closed low pressure
system has developed just southwest of the four corners region and
has already affected the western parts of the WGRFC area.  Rain and
snow showers occurred over the northwest two thirds of New Mexico
and southern Colorado, and this precipitation is forecast to
continue through today. Further east, thunderstorms have already
begun to develop over the Texas panhandle.  Much of west Texas will
see continued significant convective storm activity from this system
this afternoon, resulting in 1 to 3 inches of rainfall by Wednesday
morning. As the upper level system slowly slides eastward tonight,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and
Wednesday across central Texas, and eventually into east Texas and
western Louisiana by Wednesday evening. These areas could see 1 to 2
inches of rain by the time the system exits the area Wednesday night.
Then as this low passes across Oklahoma and Kansas Thursday there may
be some wrap-around rain over extreme north Texas, but otherwise dry
weather will return to the WGRFC area.

There will be a temporary break from the precipitation for most of
Thursday into Friday morning.  But another storm system is forecast
to develop west of the four corners region by noon Friday.  This will
begin to spread rain and high elevation snows to extreme northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado Friday through Saturday.  Then this
storm system is forecast to move over New Mexico and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms to Texas starting late Saturday
into Sunday.

While mainstem river flooding is not likely from the storm system
later today through Wednesday, this next storm system Sunday may
produce some flooding.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over central and
western Texas into northern New Mexico and most of Colorado.  The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of up to 3.00 inches, are forecast
over northwest Texas near Wichita Falls. MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of the WGRFC area except for
east Texas and Louisiana, deep south Texas, and parts of far west
Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast over the eastern third of Texas into Louisiana,
and from northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado into the Texas
panhandle.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of up to 2 inches,
are forecast across the Arklatex near Shreveport LA.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of the WGRFC area
except for the southwest third of Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southwest Colorado, as well as over extreme
southeast Texas into most of Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast across extreme northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are also forecast
across southwest Texas between San Angelo and Del Rio.  MAP amounts
of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast from northern New Mexico
into Colorado, as well as over a good part of Texas into southwest
Louisiana.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions so far this March have caused
continued soil moisture loss in many areas. This is indicated in the
current U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas which showed the area
considered to be abnormally dry at 47%.  Also, 9% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe
drought. In New Mexico the Drought monitor shows 56% of the state
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with around 7% in the
moderate drought category.  The rainfall forecast the next five days
may generate some minor runoff from northern and eastern Texas into
western Louisiana, but due to the dry topsoils no significant runoff
is expected elsewhere.  More significant runoff may be possible just
beyond this five day forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rainfall is forecast across parts of Texas late
Tuesday/Wednesday and at the end of the 5 day forecast period.
WGRFC is monitoring this situation.  But for now rivers are at or
near baseflow conditions.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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