Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251556
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

                     VALID MAY 25 THROUGH MAY 30

...AFTER A COUPLE DRY DAYS, THE WGRFC AREA WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAINFALL
EVENT LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A closed low pressure system remains over Ohio this morning.  The
WGRFC area is on the dry side of this low, with a ridge of high
pressure dominating our region.  As a result, the weather has been
precipitation-free the past 24 hours over the WGRFC area.  As the
ridge shifts eastward the dry weather will continue from today
through Friday with warmer temperatures.

By Friday night the ridge of high pressure will be east of Texas.
Then by Saturday morning a trough of low pressure is forecast to
move into northwest Colorado from the northwest.  This will allow for
a return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  Rain chances will
return to the WGRFC area as early as Saturday morning, but it will
start out being light.  But by Saturday afternoon and evening the
dryline is forecast to be active from north Texas into Oklahoma.
There may be thunderstorms which form, but at the moment the
heaviest rain will fall over Oklahoma.

By Saturday night and Sunday the upper air disturbance will pass off
to our north.  However, this trough will push another cold front into
Texas.  As this front encounters better moisture, heavier and more
widespread rain is expected toward the end of the holiday weekend
(mainly Sunday night and Monday). Due to the slow movement of the
front, locally heavy rainfall may result.  At the moment it appears
the heaviest rain will be from southwest into central and east Texas,
with excessive rain possible over the Rio Grande south of Del Rio.
The rain may persist into Tuesday across south Texas as a new upper
level low pressure system forms over Baja California.  WGRFC
forecasters will be monitoring this storm system as the weekend
approaches.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwestern
Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast from extreme north central and northeast Texas
northward into Oklahoma.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
also forecast for southeast into central Colorado.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwest into central
and northeast Texas and extreme northern Louisiana, as well as over
northeast New Mexico into most of Colorado.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast from southwest into central and east Texas
and most of Louisiana.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast
for parts of southern Colorado into northern and central New
Mexico.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 3.00 inches, are
forecast along the Rio Grande south of Del Rio TX.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southeastern two
thirds of Texas, most of New Mexico, much of Colorado and the
remainder of Louisiana.

Soil moisture conditions have rebounded due to the widespread
rainfall which fell last weekend. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas shows the area considered to be abnormally dry is down to 22%.
And, only 2% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought with less
than 1% of the state in severe drought.  In New Mexico, 24% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions with 7% of the state
in the moderate drought category.  The rainfall the next five days
may be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over the southwest
Texas and the Hill Country rivers, and possibly the northeast Texas
river basins.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding on the Neches river system is expected to continue
through the weekend. Elsewhere, all other rivers will slowly fall over
the next day or so. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected
through the end of the week. However, more rainfall is expected to
return to the WGRFC region over the weekend, which could cause minor
and possible moderate flooding across the Rio Grande Valley and the
Hill Country.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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