Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231603
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

                   VALID APRIL 23 THROUGH APRIL 28

...CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING WEST OF METROPLEX AND RAINFALL
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The next shortwave trough is near Nevada as shown by satellite water
vapor imagery.  As this feature drags a trough of low pressure over
the area, there will be an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight mainly confined to portions of north Texas
west of the metroplex.  This storm pattern will look similar to the
pattern over the last few days with a cold front following the
storms.  However, the chance for lingering rains remains low into
Thursday morning as the front stalls south of the metroplex. Any
activity is expected to be isolated. Storms are also possible across
the Texas coast today with the light offshore winds.

There is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC
area starting later this weekend.  The more reliable meteorological
models have consistently advertised well-organized stronger Pacific
storm moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert
Southwest this weekend.  These models are showing a favorable
environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern
two thirds of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in the
forecast through Monday.

We will continue to monitor this possible event and will
update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 or less are
forecast for northeast Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for the eastern third of Texas with amounts increasing
to the northeast through the upper Sabine basin.

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the
region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some
level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New
Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are,
on average, less than 65% full.  This is below average for this time
of year, with average being about 80% full.  There is considerable
variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the
western half of the state below 50% full.  Due to the dry soil
moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will
not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.  Mainstem river
flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad
downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant impacts are expected,
although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above
an action level for pumps and livestock in the area.  The duration
of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days. An event expected toward the end of the five day period
is being monitored at this time, but timing and location shifts each
model run make local forecast determinations difficult at this time.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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