Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271550
1050 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016



                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper air disturbance continued to move east across the central
plain states into the Ohio valley the past 24 hours.  Some rainfall
developed from central into northeast Oklahoma early Wednesday, with
additional shower and thunderstorm activity occurring with the
passage of this trough.  The tail end of the rain made it as far
south as north Texas Wednesday evening before the rain dissipated.
The rainfall amounts were mostly light, but isolated amounts of
2.00 inches were noted just south of the Red River in northeast
Texas, and 1.50 inches fell near Bowie.  This disturbance has now
moved east of Texas, and the chances for rain have ended.  Elsewhere,
a few showers and thunderstorms also formed over the Texas Big Bend
during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday, as well as over the
middle and lower Texas Gulf coast due to the sea breeze.

Dry weather is forecast through the end of the week and the weekend
over the majority of the WGRFC area.  An upper level ridge of high
pressure has developed over southeast Arizona.  This ridge will
strengthen and will keep the WGRFC region very dry the next several
days beginning today.  By Saturday the ridge will move northeastward
and start to weaken over Texas.  Since the ridge will weaken somewhat
an easterly wave of low pressure will move toward the lower Texas
Gulf coast. As a result some light precipitation is possible over
deep south Texas as southerly flow increases and allows abundant
moisture to move into the area. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
around 0.25 of an inch along South Padre Island by Monday morning.

During the day Monday the ridge of high pressure will shift east
to near Georgia.  This will allow the moisture and some rainfall
from the easterly wave to move northward into central and east
Texas by Tuesday of next week, but no flooding is expected for the
foreseeable future.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over extreme
southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, as well as along the lower
Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast along the lower Texas Gulf coast into deep south

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast along the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast into
deep south Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast across the southeast third of Texas into most of
Louisiana, as well as over northwest New Mexico and southwest

Its been abnormally warm and dry recently, and as a result
deteriorating drought conditions are depicted in the latest drought
monitor released on October 27th.  In Texas, the abnormally dry
category increased from 29% to 35% primarily over eastern and
southern portions.  Also, 11% of Texas is experiencing moderate
drought conditions, and now severe drought is being observed over
parts of extreme northeast Texas. In New Mexico, around 54% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions and 4% is in moderate
drought. The rainfall forecast the next five days shows little
hope of improvement, and due to the dry ground the rain will not be
heavy enough to produce runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers across the WGRFC area are near seasonal flow conditions.  No
flooding is expected at this time since no significant rainfall is
anticipated over the next several days.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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