Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301618
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

                   VALID JULY 30 THROUGH AUGUST 4

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER OVER TEXAS WHILE MONSOONAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER
NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level high pressure ridge is still located over Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma today.  This ridge will be anchored over
or near the WGRFC region and continue to dominate the weather over
Texas through at least through today.  As a result, hot and
dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast
area. This ridge is expected to shift to the west toward the Four
Corners area over the weekend.  While this shift is minor in regards
to the overall impact on our hot, dry conditions, it will allow a
better chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms over east and
southeast Texas into Louisiana.  These showers will continue each
afternoon, especially from today into the weekend.

By later Friday the ridge will be  centered over or near the Four
Corners region and remain there through Sunday.  This shift in the
ridge position not only increases the chance for rain over southeast
Texas near the coast but over other portions of Texas as well.  Upper
level disturbances will continue to move around the periphery of the
ridge and will cross Texas. While the chances for significant
rainfall is small, there is a chance for some scattered rain
nonetheless.

A very moist airmass continues to push into New Mexico feeding the
monsoonal storm activity over the next few days over portions of New
Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas.  The showers and thunderstorms
should be rather limited today, but as the ridge shifts position
the areal coverage and the intensity of the rain should increase once
again.  There will continue to be flashflood and areal flood
concerns over portions of New Mexico especially through the weekend
but no significant mainstem river flooding is expected at this time.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the northern
portions of New Mexico in the upper Rio Grande and Pecos river
basins.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 of an
inch are forecast over northern New Mexico with the heaviest amounts
focused over far northeast New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for northern New Mexico and MAP amounts of 0.25 of
an inch or less are forecast for the central third of Texas
stretching from Wichita Falls south through Corpus Christi.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast for northeastern New Mexico with lesser amounts over the
entire WGRFC forecast area (widespread rainfall).

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water
according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been
very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two
months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues
to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days
will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except over the
mountainous areas of New Mexico.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from flood control reservoir Sam Rayburn have raised the
Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) to just over flood stage. Releases
will continue to fluctuate as the reservoirs make daily adjustments.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via
controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool
levels.  System-wide, the reservoir releases have kept
streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is
expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to
the Gulf.  However, flows all along the river are now below flood
levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy overnight rainfall across the upper Pecos river and middle Rio
Grande river basins generated rises, but nothing above flood criteria
with the exception of Galisteo Creek (RGCN5).  The remainder of WGRFC
rivers are flowing below criteria at near or above normal baseflow
conditions. Significant rainfall is not forecast in the WGRFC area in
the next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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