Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 051852
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016
The heavier precipitation since yesterday morning fell mainly as
snow across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to northern
Indiana and southwest lower Michigan. Snowfall amounts were 3 to
7 inches with average water contents around a half inch.
Lighter snowfall was reported in the northeast quarter of Missouri
to eastern Iowa, and across Wisconsin to upper Michigan and the
northern half of lower Michigan. Snowfall amounts were in the
1 to 3 inch range with water content around a quarter inch.
Beyond these areas, much of our region had light snow from
northern Minnesota to central Iowa, and mostly light rain across
southern Missouri to southern Illinois to southeast lower
Michigan. Precipitation totals averaged around one to two tenths
of an inch.
In the forecast...scattered showers will skirt our southern
boundary bringing light rain to Missouri and southern Illinois.
Snow will move in over the northern portion of our region over
North Dakota to northern Minnesota and northern extremes of
Wisconsin and Michigan. Water equivalent totals will range from a
couple tenths to nearly an inch in North Dakota.
The lower soil profile in much of the region is still wet from
the wet summer. Although the upper portions of the soil had
dried out from multiple weeks of dry weather in November, much of
the region is wet again in the upper profile from recent snow,
melt, and rain.
Many rivers across the region had small rises in the past week.
In general, the affected rivers are in recession from recent
bankfull crests. Slow responding rivers in Minnesota are finally
nearing crests, including the Crow River above bankfull stage at
Delano - and the Mississippi River, which is causing bankfull
conditions on the St. Croix at Stillwater.
The upper Mississippi will see rises over the next week or so
along its entire length to St. Louis. While no flooding is
expected on the major rivers, the flows are well above normal for
this time of year, leaving the system vulnerable to future runoff.
The USGS lists streamflows in the 90th and above percentiles for
nearly all tributaries north of a line from Des Moines to Quad
Cities to Milwaukee. The Mississippi is above the 75th percentile
all the way to the confluence with the Ohio.
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
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