Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 191833
HMDMSR

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
133 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...Precipitation...

Several areas across our region had some heavy rainfall with
scattered thunderstorms...mainly across Minnesota and Wisconsin
to Upper Michigan, and from Iowa into central Illinois.  The
higher rainfall reports this morning were 1 to 2.5 inches. More
widespread showers and light rain averaging around a quarter inch
or less were reported in the eastern Dakotas and northern lower
Michigan.

In the forecast... thunderstorms will continue developing today
in eastern North and South Dakota, and extend across central
and southern Minnesota to Wisconsin. Rainfall totals in this area
should average 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts.
Areas expecting a quarter to half inch of rain extend across
northern North Dakota to northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin,
upper Michigan, and northern Illinois to northern Iowa.

Additional significant rainfall is expected the next two to three
days mainly across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa, in
Wisconsin to northern Illinois and northern Indiana to lower
Michigan.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Significant flooding continues in southeastern Wisconsin and
northeastern Illinois along the Fox and Des Plaines Rivers
after heavy to record rainfall last week. Moderate to major levels
continue at a half-dozen locations as the rivers are now receding.
Russell and Des Plaines on the Des Plaines River will drop below
moderate flood stage later today... as will New Munster on the
Fox.  The recessions may be short-lived however, as additional
heavy rainfall is a possibility, especially on Friday night.

The rainfall expected in the next three days has a chance of
causing additional significant flooding, mostly across southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  Contingency model scenarios in
the Fox and Des Plaines rivers indicate a likely re-rise during
the recession.  The most likely scenario is a return to near
moderate stages, but the possibility exists for rises exceeding
major stages again.  A return to record stages at this time
appears unlikely.

Elsewhere across the region no flooding is expected as river
levels are trending toward seasonal levels.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc



Emergency Call Back List: JDT LLD LMP RHR

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.


$$

...rhr/jmp...





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