Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 201534

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1034 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017


A cold front swept across the Dakotas and western Minnesota last
night.  It should move across the UP of Michigan, Wisconsin, and
Iowa by tomorrow morning. A new cold front will sweep across the
Dakotas Thursday and Thursday night and into western Minnesota
Friday morning, with another round of moderate to heavy rain.

In the past 24 hours...3 to 6.8 inches of rain fell over
southeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.  The
remainder of the Dakotas and Minnesota received 0.25 to 2 inches
of rain.  Far southeastern lower Michigan received 0.25 to 1.5
inches of rain.

In the next 24 hours...around a quarter inch of rain is forecast
for Wisconsin, much of Michigan, eastern Iowa, northern Missouri,
and northern Illinois. Some light rain is possible from tomorow
morning through Friday morning. Heavier rain looks possible for
Friday morning into early next week...in a wide stripe from
central Nebraska to the Minnesota Arrowhead.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

The heavy rainfall in the Red River Valley will bring some rises
to the tributary streams, and even the Red itself. But with the
recent dryness, it does not appear the rises will be too
significant, as much of the excess went into replentishing
depleated storage areas. We will need to pay attention to the
amount of rainfall that occurs late in the week however, since
this rainfall has somewhat primed the system for better responses
for the next rain event. If any of that rain becomes heavy or
localized, we could see rivers respond much more quickly.

Elsewhere across the NCRFC area, the general hydrologic situation
remains quiet, given the abnormally dry conditions.

And, flow within the mainstem Mississippi River continues to
decline slowly as well. As has been mentioned in recent days, if
this trend continues, some portions of the mainstem Mississippi
River along the MO/IL border region could start to see water
levels falling into the area of concern for navigation interests
by late next week.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: (In order...DCG...MAW...WES)

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.



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