Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 070010
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
810 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

UPDATE...LATEST AVAIL ASCAT PASSES FROM 1355Z TO 1358Z AND FROM
1536Z TO 1539Z TODAY WERE SHOWING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CSTL AND
OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 2300Z INDICATES SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ZONES 910 AND 920...AND SCT SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN NT2 ZONES. 18Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FNT
EXTNDG SE TO NW ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS...WITH RDG ACROSS THE
OFSHR AREAS N OF THE FNT AND TROFNG OVER THE ZONES S OF THE FNT.
WINDS COULD REACH 25 KT AT TIMES WITH A COLD FNT MOVG THRU THE
OFSHR WTRS WED NITE AND THU...BUT OTHW WINDS SHD NOT EXCEED 20 KT
DURG THE FCST PRD.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE
FCST PRD...EXCEPT THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFS WITH THE COLD
FNT AND A COUPLE OF WEAK FNTL LOWS OVER THE THU THRU FRI
TIMEFRAME. THE GEM DOES BECOME AN OUTLYER SOLN FOR SAT AND SAT
NITE SINCE IT BRINGS A FAIRLY STG LOW SE INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA...SO IT IS NOT A FAVORED MDL SOLN. THE GFS 10M LOOKS LIKE A
GUD MEDIAN MDL SOLN THRU THE FCST PRD...SO IT WILL BE USED TO
POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS.

SEAS...THE WNA VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH III MDL INITIALIZED WELL
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS...AND WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU
THE FCST PRD BECAUSE IT HAS GUD SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF WAM.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEAK WARM FRONT NEAR BALTIMORE CANYON THIS MRNG WILL
DRIFT N THORUGH EARLY TUE WHHILE GRADU DSIPTG.

NEXT FTR IS WEAK COLD FRONT FCST TO MOVE SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WED. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET RMNS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS MVS A WK SFC LOW NE OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST WED NGT. THIS IS ONLY HINTED AT BY THE OTHR MODELS
AND A LK AT THE LL VORT ON THE GFS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A SLGT
GRIDACALE FEEDBACK PRBLM...SO WL KP WINDS AT 20 KT MAX. ALSO...
THE GFS ENSMBL MEMBERS HV LTTL SUPPORT FOR THIS FTR.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE UPPR RDG WILL RTRGRD WWRD AS S/W ENERGY
TO DIG SOUTHWRD OVR THE W ATLC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WK FRONT TO
CONT TO SLOWLY MV S. BY 12Z FRI...THE FRONT WILL WORKS ITS WAY DMN
TO NR THE VA CAPES..PUSH ITS WAY S TO NR CAPE FEAR BY 12Z SAT PER
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...THEN BCM STNRY OVR THE SRN WATERS SAT AND SAT
NGT. N OF THE FRONT...MODELS GRADU BUILD IN WEAK HIGH PRES SAT N
OF THE FRONT...WITH A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID 12Z WAVEWATCH III MODEL INITLZD WELL...AS
DID THE ECMWF WAM. THE LATER IS NOT AVBL PAST THE 12HR FCST...SO
WILL STAY WTTH THE WAV WATCH MODEL.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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