Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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521
AGNT40 KWNM 100712
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
212 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...AN EARLIER 0243Z HI RESOLUTION ASCAT-A PASS
CONFIRMED THAT WLY GALES WERE PRESENT ACRS THE SRN AND CNTRL NT2
WTRS...PRIMARILY FM THE GULF STREAM EWD. DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVELENGTH BTWN THEIR ASCD UPR S/W TROFS...THE NEW 00Z MDLS CONT
TO HV SM TIMING DIFFERENCES IN RGRDS TO A SERIES OF ASCD SFC LOWS
FCST TO DVLP AND TRACK ENE ACRS THE NRN MOST NT2 AND SRN NT1 WTRS
TODAY INTO TONITE. THEN LATE TONITE INTO THU NITE IN RESPONSE TO A
FINAL UPR S/W TROF EXPECTED TO PASS E ACRS THE NRN WTRS THE 00Z
MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT A FINAL ASCD SFC LOW WL PASS E NR THE NRN
MOST NT1 WTRS LATE TONITE...THEN CONT OFF TO THE E THU/THU NITE.
THE NET RESULT OF THESE SFC LOW PASSAGES WL BE FOR THE CURRENT MOD
TO STRONG WLY GRADIENT TO GRADLY SHIFT NEWD TONITE INTO THU
NITE...WITH ITS ASCD GALES BCMG LIMITED TO THE SE MOST NT1 AND NE
MOST NT2 WTRS BY LATE THU NITE. WITH THE SFC LOWS PULLING A SERIES
OF TROFS AND/OR SCNDRY COLD FRONTS SE ACRS THE WTRS...THE ASCD
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITY WL WARRANT
POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE STRONGER 00Z GFS 30M BL
WINDS FOR TODAY THRU THU NITE. PER THE SMWHT WEAKER 00Z
ECMWF...STIL HV LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE THAT THE ASCD GALES IN THE
WLY GRADIENT WL EXPAND AS FAR N AS THE GULF OF MAINE WTRS BY LATE
THU INTO THU NITE. BUT PER THE 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS...AND WITH THE
00Z UKMET NOW ALSO FCSTG GALE FORCE BL WINDS THERE...WL CONT TO
INCLUDE THE GULF OF MAINE IN THE WRNGS. SO OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MAKING GNRLY MINOR SHORT TERM CHNGS IN THE NEXT OFSHR FCST
PACKAGE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z MDLS HV COME INTO BETTER AGRMT IN
RGRDS TO THEIR FCST TRACKS FOR THE NEXT DVLPG SFC LOW MOVG NE
ACRS THE SRN THEN OUTERMOST CNTRL NT2 WTRS FRI INTO FRI NITE. IN
RGRDS TO THE FCST STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
RMN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG A SMWHT STRONGER SFC LOW THAN THE 00Z
GEM/UKMET. THEREFORE AS A COMPROMISE WL POPULATE WITH A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS ON FRI/FRI NITE
FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH WL RESULT IN ASCD GALES DVLPG ACRS THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS. THEN IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW
FCST TO MOV INTO NEW ENGLD SAT AND THEN PASS E ACRS THE NRN WTRS
SAT NITE INTO SUN...EVEN THE 00Z MDLS CONT TO DIFFER IN THEIR FCST
EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE ASCD SFC LOWS MOVG E OF THE AREA...THEY ALL
FCST SMLRLY STRONG NNWLY GRADIENTS TO DVLP WITH WDSPRD GALES TO
DVLP THRUT MUCH OF THE WTRS SAT INTO SUN. SO WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
BEING SMLR FOR THIS STRONG GRADIENT...WL CONT TO USE A 50/50 BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS ONO SAT THRU SUN NITE.

.SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS
SLIGHTLY TOO LOW...WHL THE 00Z ECMWF WAM IS SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH.
WITH THEIR ASCD GFS AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS BEING
SMLR...EXPECT THESE WAVE MDL TRENDS TO CONT IN PARTICULAR IN THE
STRONG SHORT TERM WLY GRADIENT AND THEN AGAIN IN THE STRONG LONG
RANGE NNWLY GRADIENT. THEREFORE AS A COMPROMISE...WL POPULATE OUR
FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS THRU SUN NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE WLY GRADIENT FCST TO
SHIFT NWD TODAY INTO EARLY FRI...SMLR TO ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS
THE 00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO FCST A HIGHER NEGATIVE SURGE TO DVLP FM
THE SE COAST NWD UP THE COAST THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ETSS. BUT THE
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE TWO MDLS HV NARROWED SO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
MAY WORK BEST NOW.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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