Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 300211
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

A WK HIGH PRES RDG WAS OVR THE OFFSHR WTRS THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
WAS JUST N OF LAKE ERIE AND MOVG EWD WITH A FNT XTNDG S TO SW. IT
LOOKS LIKE LOW PRES WL DVLP ON THE TRIPLE PT AND MOV E INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND WTRS FRI ON THE CD FNT. MDLS ARE IN SMLR AGRMT WITH
THE LOW PRES STRENGTHENING ALG THE ERN AREAS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT. TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF GALES ON FRI IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN LAST NGT WITH INCRSG CAA. WITH REGARDS TO SEAS
THE ECMWF WAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGHER WITH SEAS THAT DVLP OVR
THE MID ATLC WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT COMPARED TO WWIII. SEAS ARE ABT
4 TO 6 FT HIGHER BY SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT OVR THE ERN MID ATLC
WTRS. CUR GRIDS OVR THIS AREA...CUD BE SLGTLY UNDERDONE...SO WL BE
LOOKING CLOSER AT THIS WITH 00Z WWIII/ECMWF WAM LATER TNGT. FOR
THE NEXT SYS FM SUN NGT INTO MON THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MDLS ARE IN
BETTER AGRMT WITH THE TRACK OF THE DVLPG AND STRENGTHENING LOW.
THE UKMET CONTS TO BE FURTHER N WITH THE LOW AS WAS THE CASE WITH
00Z MDL GUID LAST NGT. GFS MDL SEEMS TO HAV A DECENT HANDLE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR TIME BEING CURRENTLY LIMITING WINDS TO
45 KT.

FOR THE UPDATED FCST GRIDS WL BE STAYING WITH PREV GRIDS WITH FEW
CHANGES FM EARLIER.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE TWO GALE WARNING CYCLONES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER BROAD...WEAKENING RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT THAT IS FCST TO MOV E
ACRS THE WATERS LATE TNGT AND FRI...AND THE ASSD SFC LOW FCST TO
MOV E OVR THE NRN WATERS. A SML AREA OF SRLY GALES WILL ACCMPNY
THE FRONT OVR THE OUTER WATERS FRI. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM ALL FCST
NW GALES BTWN LOW CNTR AND BALT CNYN FRI AFTN. THE GFS IS THE MST
AGGRSV WITH WINDS TO 40 KT. FRI NGT...A TRPL PNT LOW WILL DVLP E
OF GEORGES BANK AND MV NE. THE MODELS ARE HVNG SOME PRBLMS
RESOLVNG THE DETAILS OF WHICH LOW WL BE STRNGR...THE TRPL PNT LOW
TO THE E OR THE WESTERN ONE HANGING BACK...FCST JUST S OF THE
GULF OF MAINE 12Z SAT. THE QUARTER DEG GFS INCRS NW WINDS TO
STORM FRC AT 12Z SAT. BY 00Z SUN...MODELS AGREE ON THIS LOW BCMG
THE STRNGR LOW...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT STORM FRC WINDS AGAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO DMNSH SAT NGT WITH
GALES ENDING LATE SAT NGT OR EARLY SUN.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS IS LOW PRES THE GFS FCST TO MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST JUST BEFORE 12Z. THE MODELS ARE DFFRNG ON
S/W ENERGY MVNG SE INTO THE MISS VLLY OVR THE WKND...WHICH
AFFECTS THE DOWNSTREAM RDG AND FCST TRACK OF THE LOW. THE UKMET
IS A NTHRN AND FASTER OUTLIER. THE GEM IS SLOW AND TO THE SW. THE
NEW ECMWF SUPPORTS THE GFS...EXCEPT IT IS NOT QUITE AS STRNG. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE LOW INBTWN THE UKMET AND GEM. CNSDRNG
THE OP GFS IS SQAURLEY IN THE MDL OF ITS ENSMBL MEMBERS...WL STAY
WITH THE OP GFS THRU THE FCST. EX[ECT SW WINDS INCRSNG TO GALE FRC
S OF BALT CANYON LATE SUN NGT...WITH GALE FRC WINDS S OF 42N MON.
THE QRTR DEG GFS SHOWS WINDS REACHING STORM FRC OVR THE FAR ERN
WATERS NR BALT CNYN MON AND NW STORM S OF GEORGES ABK BRIEFLY MON
NGT. WITH CNFDC ONLY FAIR...WL LIMIT WINDS TO 45 KT MAX. WINDS WL
QUICKLY DMNSH MON NGT INTO TUE..THEN MOD SW WINDS MAY DVLP OVR THE
GULF OF MAINE TUE NGT.


.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTOGRID WAVEWATCH INITLZD WELL TODAY AND WAVE
OBS ARE VRY CLOSE TO MODEL FCST. WAVEWATCH GDNC LOOKS GOOD AND WL
BE FLLWD CLOSELY THRU THE FCST...THOUGH WIL BOOST WINDS IN THE
STRNG W TO NW FLOW EVENTS. THE ECMWF WAM COMPARES WELL...EXCEPT
ITS SEAS ARE ABOUT 1 TO 5 FT HIGHER THRU THE FCST.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ESTOFS DVLPS A NEG SURGE
OF 1 TO 1.5 FT DVLPG ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FRI NGT AND XPNDG
NWD TOWARDS LONG ISLD SAT MRNG...BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NGT INTO SUN.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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