Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 261403
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

AT 12Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS GEORGES BANK AND INLAND NEAR
CAPE COD. A 09Z RAPIDSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT S OF
THE FRONT WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH WIND GRIDS. THIS WEAK FRONT
SHOULD DRIFT FURTHER S TODAY AND STALL THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
OVER THE MID ATLC WATERS THE MODELS CONTINUED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N70W WILL TRACK NW AND
APPROACH THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. OUT
OF DEFERENCE FOR THE SLIGHLY STRONGER 00Z/06Z GFS WHICH SHOW
SOME 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AMENDED THE PREVIOUS MODEL BLEND FOR
WINDS TO INCORPORATE MORE OF THE GFS 30M WINDS...SLIGHTLY
EXPANDING THE AREAS OF 25 KT S OF CAPE HATTERAS FRI THROUGH MON
NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREMEENT THAT LOW WILL BE SLOW
MOVING NEAR THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS THIS WEEKEND.
LAST NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK INCREASED FORMATION CHANCES...NOW
MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) THROUGH 48 HOURS AND HIGH (70 PERCENT)
THROUGH 5 DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO NHC
OUTLOOKS/FORECASTS AND NWS MARINE FORECASTS/DISCUSSIONS TO
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT.

00Z/06Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ARE WELL
INITIALIZED THIS MORNING. AS WAS DONE WITH WINDS ALSO BUMPED UP
PREVIOUS WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT S OF CAPE
HATTERAS FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT.

----------------------------------------------------------------
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES CENTER OVER NRN
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH AN ASSOCD COLD FRONT EXTNDG SW OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A HI PRES RIDGE
WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NT2 WTRS...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRES CENTER SE
OF THE NT2 AREA NEAR 26N68W. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT HI-RES AND
RAPIDSCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER TONITE SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC COAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS. ASCATB HI-RES HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING 20 TO
30 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW NEAR 26N68W. LIGHTNING DENSITY
PRODUCT DATA AT 0650Z DID SHOW A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE...BUT NOTHING ELSE OVER THE OFSHR ZONES.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N68W IS EXPCTD
TO MOVE NW AND APPROACH THE NT2 WTRS TODAY THRU EARLY
SAT...CONTINUE MOVG NW OVER THE NT2 AREA LATER SAT THRU
SUN...THEN STALL NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST SUN NITE THRU MON NITE.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW...NHC MIAMI IS CARRYING IT AS A
TROPICAL SUSPECT AREA WITH A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SE OVER THE NT1 WTRS TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE OVER THE NT1 AREA FRI AND FRI NITE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SAT...THEN PASS S OF THE NT1 AREA SAT NITE INTO SUN.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE OVER THE NT1 WTRS LATER SUN AND
SUN NITE. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND APPROACH THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MON NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD AGREEMNT OVER THE OFSHR
WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE 00Z GEM/UKMET LOOK FASTER
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE SE COAST FOR LATER SUN THRU MON
NITE...TAKING IT UP INTO THE CAROLINAS INSTEAD OF STALLING IT
NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST AS IS BEING DONE BY THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS
MDLS. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMNT THRU THE
FCST PRD AND ALSO BECAUSE THEY HAVE STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE...WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS DURING THE FCST PRD.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF
WAM BOTH INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND ARE IN GUD
AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES
NOTED. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WNA WW3/ECMWF WAM FOR
THE ENTIRE FCST PRD...SINCE IT LOOKS VERY REPRESENTATIVE AND
MATCHES UP WITH THE PREFERRED ATMOS MDLS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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