Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 121807
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 16 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 20 2016

GUIDANCE/MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN ELONGATED LOW BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 60TH PARALLELS ROUGHLY
DEFINE THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW UNDER ITS BASE
ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT, SO USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z/12Z
GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET, AND 00Z CANADIAN FOR TUESDAY, BEFORE
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING FROM A 06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE TOWARDS A 00Z NAEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.  THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED
GOOD CONTINUITY.

WEATHER IMPACT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
STORM TRACK, SAVED FOR SOUTHWEST AK (TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND NEXT
SATURDAY) AND SOUTHEAST AK (LATE THURSDAY ONWARD) WHERE 2-4" PER
DAY LOCALLY IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AK THIS
PERIOD, WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM TRACK.  TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST, 10S/20S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AK, AND BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH STAR STATE.

ROTH
$$




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