Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 231157
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 00Z THU APR 24 2014 - 00Z THU MAY 01 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DISPLAY RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY THROUGH ABOUT SAT.  HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30-35N LATITUDE
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES WITH RNFL TENDING TO FAVOR
WINDWARD TERRAIN.  A MODEST WEAKNESS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY INTO THU WITH A RIDGE ALOFT JUST NW/N OF
THE ISLANDS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY THEREAFTER.  TRADES SHOULD
BEGIN TO TREND LIGHTER DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS.  FROM SUN ONWARD THERE ARE CONTINUING DIFFS WITH THE
DEGREE OF CNTRL-ERN PAC TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WHICH LEAD TO SPREAD
WITH THE TIMING/SWD EXTENT OF THE ASSOC SFC FRONT THAT MAY REACH
THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  IN A REVERSAL
FROM 24 HRS AGO THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS ARE NOW ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FASTER/FARTHER SWD
WITH THE SFC FRONT RELATIVE TO THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.  THE MOST
CONSISTENT INTERMEDIATE SOLN AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN TRADES SOMEWHAT BY TUE-WED.

RAUSCH

$$





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