Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 221228

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 23 2018 - 00Z Fri Mar 02 2018

Models and ensembles reasonable agree and a favored composite
solution shows a blocky mid-upper level flow pattern over the
east-central Pacific highlighted by an upper low to the northwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and a downstream narrow ridge along 150W.
This setup will favor a surge of deep tropical moisture northward
across the state over the next few days to fuel potential of
locally moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.
Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to between about 1
1/3 to 1 3/4 inches through the period which is well above average
for late February.
A flash flood watch remains in effect across the state and winter
weather advisories are in place across Big Island summits of Mauna
Loa and Mauna Kea.
Another upper low may form next week just west of 170W which may
pull the precipitable water axis westward next week, perhaps west
of Kauai/Ni`ihau.


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